Bitcoin (BTC) Can Reach $200,000 Valuation Without US Dollar Collapse, Says Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise Asset Management, recently addressed a pressing question among investors: Does the US dollar need to collapse for Bitcoin

According to Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise Asset Management, the US dollar does not need to collapse for Bitcoin to reach a valuation of $200,000 per coin.

Hougan's analysis suggests that Bitcoin's ascent to such a price level is driven by its maturation as a store-of-value asset and global economic factors that increase demand for such assets, rather than a decline in the US dollar's value.

In a series of posts on the social media platform X, Hougan recounted a conversation with a financial advisor who posed the question over dinner. “Does the US dollar need to collapse for Bitcoin to hit $200,000? The answer is ‘no.’ Here’s why,” Hougan wrote.

Hougan's explanation highlights two distinct bets involved in investing in Bitcoin.

The first bet is that “Bitcoin will succeed in establishing itself as a new ‘store of value' asset.” Currently, Bitcoin's market capitalization is approximately 7% of gold's $18 trillion market. Hougan noted, “If it ‘matures’ and becomes 50% the size of gold, every Bitcoin is worth over $400,000.”

The second bet is that “Governments will abuse fiat currencies and increase demand for ‘store of value' assets.” If the market for store-of-value assets triples in size due to such mismanagement, and Bitcoin maintains its 7% market share, “each Bitcoin is worth over $200,000.”

Hougan emphasized that these two arguments are independent but can compound. “If Bitcoin matures and the store of value market doubles, you quickly get to seven figures. For what it’s worth (FWIW), I think this is the most likely scenario eventually,” Hougan stated.

Returning to the initial question, Hougan asserted, “So, no, the dollar doesn't need to collapse for Bitcoin to hit $200,000. All you need is Bitcoin to continue on its current path of maturing as an institutional asset.” He added that both factors—BTC's maturation and potential fiat currency abuse—are increasingly likely to occur simultaneously. “That's why Bitcoin is surging toward all-time highs.”

The discussion continued with input from Kevin Brent Cook, a user on X, who added nuance to Hougan's explanation. “Concise, clear, and simple,” Cook remarked. “I would only add that the reason a ‘collapse’ isn't necessary is that under ‘abusing fiat' comes the steady grind of deficit-driven dollar inflation (the US writes endless checks that never bounce), which naturally creates more currency chasing all assets.”

Hougan concurred with Cook's assessment, responding with a succinct “Agreed.”

At press time, BTC traded at $72,445, up 23% in the last 20 days.