比特币（BTC）价格从一月份的历史最高高23％

尽管在更高的时间范围内挥之不去的看跌情绪，但比特币在过去一周中反弹了7.94％

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading 23% below its January all-time high of $109,000, reached in mid-April 2025, at press time.

本发稿时，比特币（BTC）目前的交易低于其一月份的历史最高点109,000美元，达到2025年4月中旬。

Despite lingering bearish sentiment in higher timeframes, Bitcoin has rebounded 7.94% in the past week, approaching the key $85,000 level. While the market excitement of previous cycles seems to be absent, analysts believe this slowdown could signal a deeper structural change rather than stagnation.

尽管在较高的时间表中挥之不去的看跌情绪，但比特币在过去一周中反弹了7.94％，接近了85,000美元的关键水平。尽管似乎没有以前的周期的市场兴奋，但分析师认为这种放缓可能表明结构变化更深而不是停滞。

In a recent analysis, CryptoQuant contributor Crypto Dan highlighted how the current trends differ from earlier bull runs.

在最近的分析中，加密贡献者Crypto Dan强调了当前的趋势与早期牛的跑步趋势有何不同。

“We’re used to Bitcoin’s upward moves being swift and filled with the fervor of retail traders. But this time, the scene is unfolding slowly, with a smaller percentage of Bitcoin being held for short durations—between one week and one month—suggesting a market dominated by long-term holders.”

“我们习惯于比特币的向上移动迅速，充满了零售商人的热情。但是这次，场景正在缓慢展开，短期持续时间持续了一周和一个月的比特币，比特币持续了一个星期，这是一个由长期持有人主导的市场。”

According to Dan, two main factors are contributing to this change in momentum. The first is a tighter global economic setting. Unlike the 2020–2021 boom, when central banks unleashed massive liquidity and interest rates were close to zero, the present climate involves restricted capital flow and high borrowing costs. These conditions prevent rapid price surges and contribute to the slower rhythm.

根据丹的说法，两个主要因素促成了这种变化。首先是更严格的全球经济环境。与2020–2021的繁荣不同，当中央银行释放大量流动性和利率接近零时，目前的气候涉及限制资本流量和高借贷成本。这些条件可防止价格快速飙升，并导致节奏较慢。

“The scenario unfolded differently during the 2020–2021 bull market. Back then, we saw a bottom in March 2020 with a rapid price increase, fueled by nearly zero interest rates and an abundance of liquidity. This led to a frenzied retail market, quickly pushing the price to new highs.

“在2020-2021牛市期间，这种情况的发展有所不同。当时，我们在2020年3月的价格上涨，价格迅速提高，这一速度迅速增长，这一数字近零利率和丰富的流动性。这导致了疯狂的零售市场，迅速将价格推向了新高点。

In contrast, the current year has brought limited capital flows and high borrowing costs, which usually don’t favor swift and vigorous price movements. Instead, we observe a more gradual and measured increase in price, with a smaller influx of retail traders compared to previous cycles.”

相比之下，当年带来了有限的资本流量和高借贷成本，这通常不利于迅速而有力的价格变动。取而代之的是，我们观察到价格的逐渐逐渐增长，与以前的周期相比，零售交易者的涌入较少。”

The second factor, as pointed out by Dan, is the increasing role of institutional investors since the approval of Bitcoin ETFs. In doing so, retail traders have gradually taken a backseat. As a result, market movements appear less chaotic and more structured.

正如丹指出的那样，第二个因素是自比特币ETF批准以来，机构投资者的作用越来越大。这样一来，零售交易员逐渐占据了后座。结果，市场变动似乎不那么混乱，结构化。

“This new cycle is intentionally avoiding the mania of earlier cycles. It’s an interesting shift in the market's behavior, and it remains to be seen how it will play out in the long term.”

“这个新的周期有意避免较早的周期的狂热。这是市场行为的一个有趣的转变，从长远来看，它将如何发挥作用还有待观察。”

According to the analyst, some on-chain data might suggest that the cycle has already peaked, but this view oversimplifies a much more complex shift.

根据分析师的说法，一些链上的数据可能表明该周期已经达到顶峰，但是这种观点过度简化了更为复杂的变化。

“It seems that some are focusing too narrowly on on-chain data to determine the peak of the cycle, but I believe this perspective oversimplifies a deeper structural change in the market.

“似乎有些人过于狭窄地专注于链上数据，无法确定周期的峰值，但我相信这种观点过于简化市场的更深层次的结构变化。

The window for 2025 to deliver substantial market trends is closing, and we may be running out of time and opportunities. We need to keep a broad and patient outlook, especially with ETF inflows remaining consistent and broader economic pressures potentially starting to ease.”

2025年提供实质市场趋势的窗口正在关闭，我们可能会耗尽时间和机会。我们需要保持广泛而耐心的前景，尤其是ETF流入仍然存在一致，更广泛的经济压力，可能会开始缓解。”

Bitcoin MVRV MA30d Hits 6-Month Low

比特币MVRV MA30D点击6个月低点

Another CryptoQuant analyst, Gaah, has pointed out that Bitcoin’s MVRV MA30d—an indicator used to assess price behavior—has dropped to its lowest level in six months.

另一位加密分析师GAAH指出，比特币的MVRV MA30D（用于评估价格行为的指标）在六个月内下降到最低水平。

The indicator, which calculates the average realized price over 30 days and divides it by the closing price, has fallen back into a range that often reflects strong psychological support, between 1.8 and 2.1. This area has historically marked points where corrections halt or new uptrends begin.

该指标计算出30天内平均实现的价格并将其除以收盘价，但已落入通常反映1.8至2.1之间的强烈心理支持的范围。该区域历史上标志着校正停止或新上升趋势开始的点。

“The last time it hit a similar low was during Bitcoin’s recent dip to $50,000. That phase was followed by renewed upward movement. The same pattern now appears to be unfolding as investors, particularly those with short-term positions, are either close to breaking even or taking small losses. This typically happens when selling pressure lessens and prices find a foundation to rise from.”

“上次碰到类似的低点是在比特币最近下跌至50,000美元的过程中。随后是向上移动的阶段。现在，同一模式似乎正在展开，因为投资者，尤其是那些短期职位的投资者，即将损失甚至损失，这通常是在销售压力较小的情况下发生的，价格较小，价格会从销售压力降低，从而从中升至基础。”

The fear that’s currently gripping market sentiment might not be as detrimental as it seems. As Gaah further noted, previous dips into this zone on the MVRV chart triggered positive reactions in Bitcoin’s price. Several highlighted rectangles on historical charts show Bitcoin recovering each time the indicator reached the current range.

目前令人震惊的市场情绪的担忧可能并不像看起来那样有害。正如Gaah进一步指出的那样，先前在MVRV图表上降低了该区域，触发了比特币价格的积极反应。历史图表上的几个突出显示的矩形显示，每次指示器达到当前范围时，比特币都会恢复。