Bitcoin (BTC) Price Slides 23% From Its January All-Time High

Despite lingering bearish sentiment in higher timeframes, Bitcoin has rebounded 7.94% in the past week

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading 23% below its January all-time high of $109,000, reached in mid-April 2025, at press time.

Despite lingering bearish sentiment in higher timeframes, Bitcoin has rebounded 7.94% in the past week, approaching the key $85,000 level. While the market excitement of previous cycles seems to be absent, analysts believe this slowdown could signal a deeper structural change rather than stagnation.

In a recent analysis, CryptoQuant contributor Crypto Dan highlighted how the current trends differ from earlier bull runs.

“We’re used to Bitcoin’s upward moves being swift and filled with the fervor of retail traders. But this time, the scene is unfolding slowly, with a smaller percentage of Bitcoin being held for short durations—between one week and one month—suggesting a market dominated by long-term holders.”

According to Dan, two main factors are contributing to this change in momentum. The first is a tighter global economic setting. Unlike the 2020–2021 boom, when central banks unleashed massive liquidity and interest rates were close to zero, the present climate involves restricted capital flow and high borrowing costs. These conditions prevent rapid price surges and contribute to the slower rhythm.

“The scenario unfolded differently during the 2020–2021 bull market. Back then, we saw a bottom in March 2020 with a rapid price increase, fueled by nearly zero interest rates and an abundance of liquidity. This led to a frenzied retail market, quickly pushing the price to new highs.

In contrast, the current year has brought limited capital flows and high borrowing costs, which usually don’t favor swift and vigorous price movements. Instead, we observe a more gradual and measured increase in price, with a smaller influx of retail traders compared to previous cycles.”

The second factor, as pointed out by Dan, is the increasing role of institutional investors since the approval of Bitcoin ETFs. In doing so, retail traders have gradually taken a backseat. As a result, market movements appear less chaotic and more structured.

“This new cycle is intentionally avoiding the mania of earlier cycles. It’s an interesting shift in the market's behavior, and it remains to be seen how it will play out in the long term.”

According to the analyst, some on-chain data might suggest that the cycle has already peaked, but this view oversimplifies a much more complex shift.

“It seems that some are focusing too narrowly on on-chain data to determine the peak of the cycle, but I believe this perspective oversimplifies a deeper structural change in the market.

The window for 2025 to deliver substantial market trends is closing, and we may be running out of time and opportunities. We need to keep a broad and patient outlook, especially with ETF inflows remaining consistent and broader economic pressures potentially starting to ease.”

Bitcoin MVRV MA30d Hits 6-Month Low

Another CryptoQuant analyst, Gaah, has pointed out that Bitcoin’s MVRV MA30d—an indicator used to assess price behavior—has dropped to its lowest level in six months.

The indicator, which calculates the average realized price over 30 days and divides it by the closing price, has fallen back into a range that often reflects strong psychological support, between 1.8 and 2.1. This area has historically marked points where corrections halt or new uptrends begin.

“The last time it hit a similar low was during Bitcoin’s recent dip to $50,000. That phase was followed by renewed upward movement. The same pattern now appears to be unfolding as investors, particularly those with short-term positions, are either close to breaking even or taking small losses. This typically happens when selling pressure lessens and prices find a foundation to rise from.”

The fear that’s currently gripping market sentiment might not be as detrimental as it seems. As Gaah further noted, previous dips into this zone on the MVRV chart triggered positive reactions in Bitcoin’s price. Several highlighted rectangles on historical charts show Bitcoin recovering each time the indicator reached the current range.