比特幣（BTC）價格從一月份的歷史最高高23％

儘管在更高的時間範圍內揮之不去的看跌情緒，但比特幣在過去一周中反彈了7.94％

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading 23% below its January all-time high of $109,000, reached in mid-April 2025, at press time.

本發稿時，比特幣（BTC）目前的交易低於其一月份的歷史最高點109,000美元，達到2025年4月中旬。

Despite lingering bearish sentiment in higher timeframes, Bitcoin has rebounded 7.94% in the past week, approaching the key $85,000 level. While the market excitement of previous cycles seems to be absent, analysts believe this slowdown could signal a deeper structural change rather than stagnation.

儘管在較高的時間表中揮之不去的看跌情緒，但比特幣在過去一周中反彈了7.94％，接近了85,000美元的關鍵水平。儘管似乎沒有以前的周期的市場興奮，但分析師認為這種放緩可能表明結構變化更深而不是停滯。

In a recent analysis, CryptoQuant contributor Crypto Dan highlighted how the current trends differ from earlier bull runs.

在最近的分析中，加密貢獻者Crypto Dan強調了當前的趨勢與早期牛的跑步趨勢有何不同。

“We’re used to Bitcoin’s upward moves being swift and filled with the fervor of retail traders. But this time, the scene is unfolding slowly, with a smaller percentage of Bitcoin being held for short durations—between one week and one month—suggesting a market dominated by long-term holders.”

“我們習慣於比特幣的向上移動迅速，充滿了零售商人的熱情。但是這次，場景正在緩慢展開，短期持續時間持續了一周和一個月的比特幣，比特幣持續了一個星期，這是一個由長期持有人主導的市場。”

According to Dan, two main factors are contributing to this change in momentum. The first is a tighter global economic setting. Unlike the 2020–2021 boom, when central banks unleashed massive liquidity and interest rates were close to zero, the present climate involves restricted capital flow and high borrowing costs. These conditions prevent rapid price surges and contribute to the slower rhythm.

根據丹的說法，兩個主要因素促成了這種變化。首先是更嚴格的全球經濟環境。與2020–2021的繁榮不同，當中央銀行釋放大量流動性和利率接近零時，目前的氣候涉及限制資本流量和高借貸成本。這些條件可防止價格快速飆升，並導致節奏較慢。

“The scenario unfolded differently during the 2020–2021 bull market. Back then, we saw a bottom in March 2020 with a rapid price increase, fueled by nearly zero interest rates and an abundance of liquidity. This led to a frenzied retail market, quickly pushing the price to new highs.

“在2020-2021牛市期間，這種情況的發展有所不同。當時，我們在2020年3月的價格上漲，價格迅速提高，這一速度迅速增長，這一數字近零利率和豐富的流動性。這導致了瘋狂的零售市場，迅速將價格推向了新高點。

In contrast, the current year has brought limited capital flows and high borrowing costs, which usually don’t favor swift and vigorous price movements. Instead, we observe a more gradual and measured increase in price, with a smaller influx of retail traders compared to previous cycles.”

相比之下，當年帶來了有限的資本流量和高借貸成本，這通常不利於迅速而有力的價格變動。取而代之的是，我們觀察到價格的逐漸逐漸增長，與以前的周期相比，零售交易者的湧入較少。 ”

The second factor, as pointed out by Dan, is the increasing role of institutional investors since the approval of Bitcoin ETFs. In doing so, retail traders have gradually taken a backseat. As a result, market movements appear less chaotic and more structured.

正如丹指出的那樣，第二個因素是自比特幣ETF批准以來，機構投資者的作用越來越大。這樣一來，零售交易員逐漸佔據了後座。結果，市場變動似乎不那麼混亂，結構化。

“This new cycle is intentionally avoiding the mania of earlier cycles. It’s an interesting shift in the market's behavior, and it remains to be seen how it will play out in the long term.”

“這個新的周期有意避免較早的周期的狂熱。這是市場行為的一個有趣的轉變，從長遠來看，它將如何發揮作用還有待觀察。”

According to the analyst, some on-chain data might suggest that the cycle has already peaked, but this view oversimplifies a much more complex shift.

根據分析師的說法，一些鏈上的數據可能表明該週期已經達到頂峰，但是這種觀點過度簡化了更為複雜的變化。

“It seems that some are focusing too narrowly on on-chain data to determine the peak of the cycle, but I believe this perspective oversimplifies a deeper structural change in the market.

“似乎有些人過於狹窄地專注於鏈上數據，無法確定週期的峰值，但我相信這種觀點過於簡化市場的更深層次的結構變化。

The window for 2025 to deliver substantial market trends is closing, and we may be running out of time and opportunities. We need to keep a broad and patient outlook, especially with ETF inflows remaining consistent and broader economic pressures potentially starting to ease.”

2025年提供實質市場趨勢的窗口正在關閉，我們可能會耗盡時間和機會。我們需要保持廣泛而耐心的前景，尤其是ETF流入仍然存在一致，更廣泛的經濟壓力，可能會開始緩解。 ”

Bitcoin MVRV MA30d Hits 6-Month Low

比特幣MVRV MA30D點擊6個月低點

Another CryptoQuant analyst, Gaah, has pointed out that Bitcoin’s MVRV MA30d—an indicator used to assess price behavior—has dropped to its lowest level in six months.

另一位加密分析師GAAH指出，比特幣的MVRV MA30D（用於評估價格行為的指標）在六個月內下降到最低水平。

The indicator, which calculates the average realized price over 30 days and divides it by the closing price, has fallen back into a range that often reflects strong psychological support, between 1.8 and 2.1. This area has historically marked points where corrections halt or new uptrends begin.

該指標計算出30天內平均實現的價格並將其除以收盤價，但已落入通常反映1.8至2.1之間的強烈心理支持的範圍。該區域歷史上標誌著校正停止或新上升趨勢開始的點。

“The last time it hit a similar low was during Bitcoin’s recent dip to $50,000. That phase was followed by renewed upward movement. The same pattern now appears to be unfolding as investors, particularly those with short-term positions, are either close to breaking even or taking small losses. This typically happens when selling pressure lessens and prices find a foundation to rise from.”

“上次碰到類似的低點是在比特幣最近下跌至50,000美元的過程中。隨後是向上移動的階段。現在，同一模式似乎正在展開，因為投資者，尤其是那些短期職位的投資者，即將損失甚至損失，這通常是在銷售壓力較小的情況下發生的，價格較小，價格會從銷售壓力降低，從而從中升至基礎。”

The fear that’s currently gripping market sentiment might not be as detrimental as it seems. As Gaah further noted, previous dips into this zone on the MVRV chart triggered positive reactions in Bitcoin’s price. Several highlighted rectangles on historical charts show Bitcoin recovering each time the indicator reached the current range.

目前令人震驚的市場情緒的擔憂可能並不像看起來那樣有害。正如Gaah進一步指出的那樣，先前在MVRV圖表上降低了該區域，觸發了比特幣價格的積極反應。歷史圖表上的幾個突出顯示的矩形顯示，每次指示器達到當前範圍時，比特幣都會恢復。