随着散户投资者需求逐渐恢复，比特币（BTC）的价格反弹

比特币的价格绩效仍处于压力下，过去一周的资产下降了2.3％。这种下降使BTC的价值从一月份的历史最高高点超过109,000美元。

Bitcoin’s price continues to face challenges, with a 2.3% drop over the past week, further distancing the asset from its January all-time high of over $109,000. In the face of bearish momentum, analysts are monitoring signs of renewed interest from retail investors, a crucial market segment that could influence Bitcoin’s near-term direction.

比特币的价格继续面临挑战，过去一周下降了2.3％，这一资产与一月份的历史最高高点超过109,000美元相距甚远。面对看跌的动力，分析师正在监视散户投资者的新兴趣的迹象，这是一个至关重要的市场领域，可能会影响比特币的近期方向。

A recent analysis by CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost highlights a promising shift in Bitcoin’s retail demand metrics. The 30-day demand change has climbed back into the neutral zone around 0%, recovering from a deeply negative -21% observed late last year.

加密分析师DarkFost的最新分析强调了比特币零售需求指标的有希望的转变。 30天的需求变化已爬回中立区，大约在0％左右，从去年年底观察到的深入-21％。

According to Darkfost’s insights, this marks the first time since 2021 that retail demand has shown such a significant turnaround. Historically, periods of recovering retail demand have tended to precede eventual price rebounds.

根据Darkfost的见解，这标志着自2021年以来零售需求以来的首次表现出如此明显的周转。从历史上看，恢复零售需求的时期倾向于最终的价格篮板。

For instance, in July 2024, retail demand reached a similar low point before beginning to recover. Though it took about three months for Bitcoin’s price to respond positively, the subsequent upward move demonstrated the impact of growing retail interest.

例如，在2024年7月，零售需求在开始恢复之前达到了类似的低点。尽管比特币的价格大约花了大约三个月的时间才能做出积极的回应，但随后的上升举动表明零售利益的影响。

Bitcoin retail Investor demand is brewing

比特币零售投资者需求正在酿造

Notably, past instances of recovering retail demand have often coincided with upward price movements in the short-term.

值得注意的是，过去恢复零售需求的实例通常与短期内的价格变动相吻合。

For example, as highlighted by @Darkfost_Coc, periods of recovering 30-day demand have historically been followed by positive returns.

例如，正如@darkfost_coc所强调的那样，恢复30天需求的时期在历史上是积极回报的。

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- cryptoquant.com（@cryptoquant_com）2025年2月24日

Darkfost noted that if this trend holds true this time, the current recovery in retail demand could pave the way for future price gains—although such shifts may take time to manifest.

DarkFost指出，如果这次这种趋势成立，那么当前的零售需求中的回收率可能为未来的价格上涨铺平道路，尽管这种转变可能需要时间来体现。

Network Activity and Investor Sentiment Weakening

网络活动和投资者情绪减弱

While the signs of retail demand are positive, broader network activity and investor sentiment paint a more cautious picture.

尽管零售需求的迹象是积极的，但更广泛的网络活动和投资者的情感描绘了更加谨慎的情况。

Darkfost's analysis, in a separate post, reveals a declining trend in the number of active Bitcoin wallets and transactions used for deposits and withdrawals. Accumulation of Bitcoin by spot ETFs has also slowed, with minor outflows indicating a more hesitant investor base.

DarkFost在另一篇文章中的分析显示，用于存款和戒断的活动比特币钱包和交易的数量趋势下降。通过现货ETF的积累，比特币的积累也有所放缓，较小的流出表明投资者基础更犹豫。

Furthermore, the number of unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) is decreasing at a rate that resembles previous market cycle peaks. While this observation alone does not confirm a market top, it does raise questions about the underlying strength of current market participants.

此外，未解决的交易输出（UTXO）的数量正在以类似于以前的市场周期峰值的速度减少。虽然仅此观察结果并不能确认市场顶级，但它确实引起了人们对当前市场参与者的潜在实力的疑问。

Investor sentiment has also been influenced by broader macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. Darkfost notes that while initial bullish sentiment was driven by optimism regarding Trump’s election and the potential for favorable US crypto regulations, no substantial policy changes or legislative actions have yet materialized.

投资者的情绪也受到更广泛的宏观经济和地缘政治因素的影响。 Darkfost指出，尽管最初的看涨情绪是由对特朗普的选举和有利的美国加密法规的潜力的乐观情绪所驱动的，但尚未实现实质性的政策变更或立法行动。

Meanwhile, global trade tensions and risk-averse market behavior continue to dampen enthusiasm. With earlier bullish narratives already priced into Bitcoin’s performance, the market will likely require new catalysts or improving conditions to regain upward momentum.

同时，全球贸易紧张局势和规避风险的市场行为继续抑制热情。随着早期看涨的叙述已经以比特币的表现定价，市场可能需要新的催化剂或改善条件以恢复向上的动力。

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

使用DALL-E创建的特征图像，TradingView的图表