隨著散戶投資者需求逐漸恢復，比特幣（BTC）的價格反彈

比特幣的價格績效仍處於壓力下，過去一周的資產下降了2.3％。這種下降使BTC的價值從一月份的歷史最高高點超過109,000美元。

Bitcoin’s price continues to face challenges, with a 2.3% drop over the past week, further distancing the asset from its January all-time high of over $109,000. In the face of bearish momentum, analysts are monitoring signs of renewed interest from retail investors, a crucial market segment that could influence Bitcoin’s near-term direction.

比特幣的價格繼續面臨挑戰，過去一周下降了2.3％，這一資產與一月份的歷史最高高點超過109,000美元相距甚遠。面對看跌的動力，分析師正在監視散戶投資者的新興趣的跡象，這是一個至關重要的市場領域，可能會影響比特幣的近期方向。

A recent analysis by CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost highlights a promising shift in Bitcoin’s retail demand metrics. The 30-day demand change has climbed back into the neutral zone around 0%, recovering from a deeply negative -21% observed late last year.

加密分析師DarkFost的最新分析強調了比特幣零售需求指標的有希望的轉變。 30天的需求變化已爬回中立區，大約在0％左右，從去年年底觀察到的深入-21％。

According to Darkfost’s insights, this marks the first time since 2021 that retail demand has shown such a significant turnaround. Historically, periods of recovering retail demand have tended to precede eventual price rebounds.

根據Darkfost的見解，這標誌著自2021年以來零售需求以來的首次表現出如此明顯的周轉。從歷史上看，恢復零售需求的時期傾向於最終的價格籃板。

For instance, in July 2024, retail demand reached a similar low point before beginning to recover. Though it took about three months for Bitcoin’s price to respond positively, the subsequent upward move demonstrated the impact of growing retail interest.

例如，在2024年7月，零售需求在開始恢復之前達到了類似的低點。儘管比特幣的價格大約花了大約三個月的時間才能做出積極的回應，但隨後的上升舉動表明零售利益的影響。

Bitcoin retail Investor demand is brewing

比特幣零售投資者需求正在釀造

Notably, past instances of recovering retail demand have often coincided with upward price movements in the short-term.

值得注意的是，過去恢復零售需求的實例通常與短期內的價格變動相吻合。

For example, as highlighted by @Darkfost_Coc, periods of recovering 30-day demand have historically been followed by positive returns.

例如，正如@darkfost_coc所強調的那樣，恢復30天需求的時期在歷史上是積極回報的。

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- cryptoquant.com（@cryptoquant_com）2025年2月24日

Darkfost noted that if this trend holds true this time, the current recovery in retail demand could pave the way for future price gains—although such shifts may take time to manifest.

DarkFost指出，如果這次這種趨勢成立，那麼當前的零售需求中的回收率可能為未來的價格上漲鋪平道路，儘管這種轉變可能需要時間來體現。

Network Activity and Investor Sentiment Weakening

網絡活動和投資者情緒減弱

While the signs of retail demand are positive, broader network activity and investor sentiment paint a more cautious picture.

儘管零售需求的跡像是積極的，但更廣泛的網絡活動和投資者的情感描繪了更加謹慎的情況。

Darkfost's analysis, in a separate post, reveals a declining trend in the number of active Bitcoin wallets and transactions used for deposits and withdrawals. Accumulation of Bitcoin by spot ETFs has also slowed, with minor outflows indicating a more hesitant investor base.

DarkFost在另一篇文章中的分析顯示，用於存款和戒斷的活動比特幣錢包和交易的數量趨勢下降。通過現貨ETF的積累，比特幣的積累也有所放緩，較小的流出表明投資者基礎更猶豫。

Furthermore, the number of unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) is decreasing at a rate that resembles previous market cycle peaks. While this observation alone does not confirm a market top, it does raise questions about the underlying strength of current market participants.

此外，未解決的交易輸出（UTXO）的數量正在以類似於以前的市場週期峰值的速度減少。雖然僅此觀察結果並不能確認市場頂級，但它確實引起了人們對當前市場參與者的潛在實力的疑問。

Investor sentiment has also been influenced by broader macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. Darkfost notes that while initial bullish sentiment was driven by optimism regarding Trump’s election and the potential for favorable US crypto regulations, no substantial policy changes or legislative actions have yet materialized.

投資者的情緒也受到更廣泛的宏觀經濟和地緣政治因素的影響。 Darkfost指出，儘管最初的看漲情緒是由對特朗普的選舉和有利的美國加密法規的潛力的樂觀情緒所驅動的，但尚未實現實質性的政策變更或立法行動。

Meanwhile, global trade tensions and risk-averse market behavior continue to dampen enthusiasm. With earlier bullish narratives already priced into Bitcoin’s performance, the market will likely require new catalysts or improving conditions to regain upward momentum.

同時，全球貿易緊張局勢和規避風險的市場行為繼續抑制熱情。隨著早期看漲的敘述已經以比特幣的表現定價，市場可能需要新的催化劑或改善條件以恢復向上的動力。

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

使用DALL-E創建的特徵圖像，TradingView的圖表