分析师预计 2025 年美国比特币储备的可能性为 60%，比特币 (BTC) 价格反弹至 10 万美元以上

比特币价格新年开局低迷，但多头让空头重新进入冬眠状态

Bitcoin has rebounded to over $100,000 after a lull during the holiday period, climbing along with stock markets.

在假期期间的平静之后，比特币已反弹至 10 万美元以上，并与股市一起上涨。

Now, as a crisis in China is predicted to fuel further bitcoin price gains, analysts at a Wall Street investment bank have put the odds of incoming U.S. president Donald Trump creating a bitcoin reserve in 2025 at 60%—far higher than most other predictions.

现在，预计中国爆发的危机将进一步推动比特币价格上涨，华尔街一家投资银行的分析师认为，即将上任的美国总统唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 在 2025 年建立比特币储备的可能性为 60%，远高于大多数其他预测。

U.S. president-elect Donald Trump has said he plans on creating a bitcoin reserve, helping the ... [+] bitcoin price surge to all-time highs over $100,000 per bitcoin.

美国当选总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，他计划建立比特币储备，帮助比特币价格飙升至每比特币 10 万美元以上的历史新高。

"Based on our analysis of historical price cycles and recent price action, along with the widely-held expectation for a more favorable regulatory environment for the digital assets industry in the U.S. in 2025 under the new administration, the availability of spot ETF [exchange-traded fund] products in the U.S., and accelerating institutional investor and corporate adoption, we now estimate that bitcoin will reach $225,000 per coin by the end of 2025," HC Wainwright analyst Mike Colonnese wrote in a note seen by CNBC.

“根据我们对历史价格周期和近期价格走势的分析，以及人们普遍预期新政府将在 2025 年为美国数字资产行业提供更有利的监管环境，现货 ETF [交易所- HC Wainwright 分析师 Mike Colonnese 在一份报告中写道：“我们现在预计，到 2025 年底，比特币的价格将达到每枚 225,000 美元。” CNBC 看到的注释。

However, Colonnese said the bitcoin price could "significantly exceed" its price prediction if the U.S. implements bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset this year—something he has assigned a 60% likelihood of happening.

然而，Colonnese 表示，如果美国今年将比特币作为国库储备资产，比特币价格可能“显着超出”其价格预测——他认为这种情况发生的可能性为 60%。

In December, Trump confirmed he plans to establish a U.S. bitcoin strategic reserve. "We're gonna do something great with crypto because we don’t want China, or anybody else … but others are embracing it, and we want to be ahead," Trump told CNBC.

去年 12 月，特朗普确认计划建立美国比特币战略储备。特朗普对 CNBC 表示：“我们将利用加密货币做一些伟大的事情，因为我们不想要中国或其他任何人……但其他人正在拥抱它，我们希望领先。”

"Yes, I think so," Trump said in response to a question about whether the U.S. will create a bitcoin strategic reserve similar to its oil reserve.

“是的，我认为是这样，”特朗普在回答有关美国是否会建立类似于石油储备的比特币战略储备的问题时说道。

In July, then Republican candidate Donald Trump promised to create a "strategic national bitcoin reserve" and predicted bitcoin could eclipse gold's $16 trillion market capitalization during an appearance at the Bitcoin 2024 conference.

今年 7 月，当时的共和党候选人唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 在比特币 2024 年会议上承诺建立“国家比特币战略储备”，并预测比特币可能超越黄金 16 万亿美元的市值。

The bitcoin price has rocketed past $100,000 per bitcoin after dropping to around $90,000 in recent ... [+] weeks.

比特币价格在最近几周跌至 90,000 美元左右后，已飙升至每比特币 100,000 美元以上。

Republican senator Cynthia Lummis has introduced a bill to congress, entitled the Boosting Innovation, Technology and Competitiveness Through Optimized Investment Nationwide (BITCOIN) Act, which proposes the U.S. buy 1 million bitcoins over five years to reduce the spiraling $35 trillion U.S. national debt.

共和党参议员辛西娅·卢米斯 (Cynthia Lummis) 向国会提出了一项名为《通过全国优化投资促进创新、技术和竞争力 (BITCOIN) 法案》的法案，该法案建议美国在五年内购买 100 万枚比特币，以减少不断攀升的 35 万亿美元国债。

The possibility that Trump follows through on his bitcoin reserve plans has spurred huge bitcoin price predictions from bitcoin traders and investors—with a leak revealing Russia may beat the U.S. to creating a bitcoin reserve.

特朗普履行其比特币储备计划的可能性引发了比特币交易者和投资者对比特币价格的巨大预测——有消息称俄罗斯可能会击败美国建立比特币储备。

However, many bitcoin and crypto watchers still see the creation of a U.S. bitcoin strategic reserve as unlikely—with the odds on the Polymarket prediction platform showing a likelihood of 29% that Trump will create a bitcoin fund within his first 100 days.

然而，许多比特币和加密货币观察人士仍然认为美国不太可能建立比特币战略储备——Polymarket 预测平台显示特朗普在上任后 100 天内创建比特币基金的可能性为 29%。

"I am thinking of it as a low probability (less than 10%), high impact event," Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, said in December. "If it happens, $200,000 is far too low for next year," referring to his own bitcoin price prediction.

渣打银行数字资产研究全球主管杰夫·肯德里克 (Geoff Kendrick) 去年 12 月表示：“我认为这是一个低概率（低于 10%）、高影响力的事件。” “如果这种情况发生，对于明年来说 20 万美元就太低了，”他指的是自己对比特币价格的预测。