分析師預計 2025 年美國比特幣儲備的可能性為 60%，比特幣 (BTC) 價格反彈至 10 萬美元以上

比特幣價格新年開局低迷，但多頭讓空頭重新進入冬眠狀態

Bitcoin has rebounded to over $100,000 after a lull during the holiday period, climbing along with stock markets.

在假期期間的平靜之後，比特幣已反彈至 10 萬美元以上，並與股市一起上漲。

Now, as a crisis in China is predicted to fuel further bitcoin price gains, analysts at a Wall Street investment bank have put the odds of incoming U.S. president Donald Trump creating a bitcoin reserve in 2025 at 60%—far higher than most other predictions.

現在，預計中國爆發的危機將進一步推動比特幣價格上漲，華爾街一家投資銀行的分析師認為，即將上任的美國總統川普(Donald Trump) 在2025 年建立比特幣儲備的可能性為60 %，遠高於大多數其他預測。

U.S. president-elect Donald Trump has said he plans on creating a bitcoin reserve, helping the ... [+] bitcoin price surge to all-time highs over $100,000 per bitcoin.

美國當選總統川普表示，他計劃建立比特幣儲備，幫助比特幣價格飆升至每比特幣 10 萬美元以上的歷史新高。

"Based on our analysis of historical price cycles and recent price action, along with the widely-held expectation for a more favorable regulatory environment for the digital assets industry in the U.S. in 2025 under the new administration, the availability of spot ETF [exchange-traded fund] products in the U.S., and accelerating institutional investor and corporate adoption, we now estimate that bitcoin will reach $225,000 per coin by the end of 2025," HC Wainwright analyst Mike Colonnese wrote in a note seen by CNBC.

「根據我們對歷史價格週期和近期價格趨勢的分析，以及人們普遍預期新政府將在 2025 年為美國數位資產產業提供更有利的監管環境，現貨 ETF [交易所- HC Wainwright 分析師Mike Colonnese 在CNBC看到的一份報告中寫道，“我們預計，到2025 年底，比特幣的價格將達到每枚225,000 美元。”

However, Colonnese said the bitcoin price could "significantly exceed" its price prediction if the U.S. implements bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset this year—something he has assigned a 60% likelihood of happening.

然而，Colonnese 表示，如果美國今年將比特幣作為國庫儲備資產，比特幣價格可能「顯著超出」其價格預測——他認為這種情況發生的可能性為 60%。

In December, Trump confirmed he plans to establish a U.S. bitcoin strategic reserve. "We're gonna do something great with crypto because we don’t want China, or anybody else … but others are embracing it, and we want to be ahead," Trump told CNBC.

去年 12 月，川普確認計畫建立美國比特幣戰略儲備。川普對 CNBC 表示：“我們將利用加密貨幣做一些偉大的事情，因為我們不想要中國或其他任何人……但其他人正在擁抱它，我們希望領先。”

"Yes, I think so," Trump said in response to a question about whether the U.S. will create a bitcoin strategic reserve similar to its oil reserve.

「是的，我認為是這樣，」川普在回答有關美國是否會建立類似於石油儲備的比特幣戰略儲備的問題時說道。

In July, then Republican candidate Donald Trump promised to create a "strategic national bitcoin reserve" and predicted bitcoin could eclipse gold's $16 trillion market capitalization during an appearance at the Bitcoin 2024 conference.

今年 7 月，當時的共和黨候選人唐納德·川普 (Donald Trump) 在比特幣 2024 年會議上承諾建立“國家比特幣戰略儲備”，並預測比特幣可能超越黃金 16 兆美元的市值。

The bitcoin price has rocketed past $100,000 per bitcoin after dropping to around $90,000 in recent ... [+] weeks.

比特幣價格在最近幾週跌至 9 萬美元左右後，已飆升至每比特幣 10 萬美元以上。

Republican senator Cynthia Lummis has introduced a bill to congress, entitled the Boosting Innovation, Technology and Competitiveness Through Optimized Investment Nationwide (BITCOIN) Act, which proposes the U.S. buy 1 million bitcoins over five years to reduce the spiraling $35 trillion U.S. national debt.

共和黨參議員辛西婭·盧米斯(Cynthia Lummis) 向國會提出了一項名為《通過全國優化投資促進創新、技術和競爭力(BITCOIN) 法案》的法案，該法案建議美國在五年內購買100 萬枚比特幣，以減少不斷攀升的35 兆美元國債。

The possibility that Trump follows through on his bitcoin reserve plans has spurred huge bitcoin price predictions from bitcoin traders and investors—with a leak revealing Russia may beat the U.S. to creating a bitcoin reserve.

川普履行其比特幣儲備計劃的可能性引發了比特幣交易者和投資者對比特幣價格的巨大預測——有消息稱俄羅斯可能會擊敗美國建立比特幣儲備。

However, many bitcoin and crypto watchers still see the creation of a U.S. bitcoin strategic reserve as unlikely—with the odds on the Polymarket prediction platform showing a likelihood of 29% that Trump will create a bitcoin fund within his first 100 days.

然而，許多比特幣和加密貨幣觀察家仍然認為美國不太可能建立比特幣戰略儲備——Polymarket 預測平台顯示川普在上任後 100 天內創建比特幣基金的可能性為 29%。

"I am thinking of it as a low probability (less than 10%), high impact event," Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, said in December. "If it happens, $200,000 is far too low for next year," referring to his own bitcoin price prediction.

渣打銀行數位資產研究全球主管傑夫·肯德里克 (Geoff Kendrick) 去年 12 月表示：“我認為這是一個低機率（低於 10%）、高影響力的事件。” 「如果這種情況發生，對於明年來說 20 萬美元就太低了，」他指的是自己對比特幣價格的預測。