比特币（BTC）价格达到其历史最高额为109,000美元

比特币（Crypto：BTC）的价格在1月25日达到了其历史最高额度超过109,000美元。去年1月，其第一笔价格交易所资金（ETFS）的批准

Bitcoin's (CRYPTO: BTC) price reached its all-time high of more than $109,000 on Jan. 25. The approvals of its first spot price exchange-traded funds (ETFs) last January, its latest halving (which every four years cuts the rewards in half for mining new coins) last April, three interest rate cuts, and President Donald Trump's election victory last November all brought the bulls back to the top cryptocurrency.

1月25日，比特币（加密：BTC）的价格达到了其历史最高高点，超过109,000美元。去年1月，对其第一笔价格交易所资金（ETF）的批准，其最新的一半（每四年都将奖励减少了一半）去年四月，挖掘新硬币的一半），去年4月，三个利率削减了唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trust）的胜利，并在11月赢得了胜利，这使得胜利了，这使得胜利了，这是11月的胜利。

But as of this writing, Bitcoin's price has retreated more than 20% to about $84,000. That decline can be largely attributed to the Trump administration's plans to impose or raise tariffs, which are stoking fears of higher inflation and elevated interest rates. Does this pullback present a buying opportunity, or will Bitcoin's price drop even further this year?

但是截至撰写本文时，比特币的价格已退缩超过20％至84,000美元。这种下降很大程度上可以归因于特朗普政府征收或提高关税的计划，这激发了人们对更高通货膨胀和利率升高的担忧。这种回调是否会带来购买机会，还是比特币的价格今年会进一步下跌？

Why are Trump's tariffs driving Bitcoin's price lower?

为什么特朗普的关税推动比特币的价格降低？

To understand how Trump's tariffs affect Bitcoin, you should pay attention to the relationship between inflation, interest rates and the crypto market. When inflation runs too hot, the Federal Reserve raises its benchmark interest rates to cool down the economy and prevent the prices of everyday goods and services from skyrocketing.

要了解特朗普的关税如何影响比特币，您应该关注通货膨胀，利率和加密货币市场之间的关系。当通货膨胀率太高时，美联储将提高其基准利率，以降低经济，并防止日常商品和服务的价格飞涨。

However, rising interest rates also drive investors away from more speculative investments — like growth stocks and cryptocurrencies — and toward fixed-income investments like CDs and Treasury bills, which offer relatively high risk-free yields. That's why Bitcoin's price dropped in 2022 as interest rates rose, but recovered in 2024 as rates finally began to decline.

但是，利率上升也使投资者脱离了更具投机性投资（如增长股票和加密货币），以及固定收入的投资，例如CDS和Teareasury账单，这些投资提供了相对较高的无风险收益率。这就是为什么随着利率上升，比特币的价格在2022年下跌，但随着利率终于开始下降，比特币的价格在2024年恢复了。

Bitcoin's bulls expected interest rates to keep declining in 2025 as inflation cooled off. Trump had also publicly pressed the Fed to aggressively cut those rates. However, his own plans for higher tariffs could complicate that situation.

比特币的公牛预计，随着通货膨胀的降温，2025年的利率将在2025年不断下降。特朗普还公开敦促美联储积极降低这些利率。但是，他自己提高关税的计划可能会使这种情况变得复杂。

Trump plans to levy 25% tariffs against products from Canada, Mexico and the European Union, as well as a 10% tariff on Canadian energy products like oil and electricity. Those tariffs are scheduled to take effect on March 4. Canada and Mexico, the U.S.'s two largest trade partners, plan to respond with retaliatory tariffs.

特朗普计划对加拿大，墨西哥和欧盟的产品征收25％的关税，并对加拿大能源产品（如石油和电力）征收10％的关税。这些关税定于3月4日生效。美国两个最大的贸易伙伴加拿大和墨西哥计划以报复性关税做出回应。

China, which was already hit by a 10% tariff against its imports in early February, could also see those tariffs double on March 4. China is the U.S.'s third-largest trading partner, and has also responded with sweeping tariffs on U.S. products.

中国已经在2月初对进口的10％关税打击，也可能会在3月4日看到这些关税的一倍。

All of those back-and-forth threats are sparking fears of higher inflation, which would force the Fed to pause its interest rate cuts or even raise its rates again. Those fears are driving investors away from Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies again, even though the Trump administration still aims to relax the government regulations for the cryptocurrency market.

所有这些来回威胁都引发了人们对更高通货膨胀的担忧，这将迫使美联储暂停其降低利率，甚至再次提高其利率。这些担心会再次使投资者远离比特币和其他加密货币，即使特朗普政府仍然旨在放松政府对加密货币市场的法规。

Those uncertainties make it hard to buy Bitcoin

这些不确定性使购买比特币变得困难

The Trump administration might simply be leveraging its threats of higher tariffs to negotiate more favorable trade deals with the country's top trading partners. Many analysts believe that if all of those planned tariffs and retaliatory tariffs were fully implemented, consumer prices in the U.S. would surge and spark even hotter inflation.

特朗普政府可能只是利用其更高关税的威胁来与该国最高贸易伙伴谈判更有利的贸易协议。许多分析人士认为，如果所有这些计划的关税和报复性关税都已完全实施，那么美国的消费者价格将会飙升，并引发更高的通货膨胀。

If this is just a saber-rattling strategy, then Bitcoin's pullback might be a good buying opportunity. Prominent Bitcoin bulls like Ark Invest's Cathie Wood and Block (NYSE: SQ) founder Jack Dorsey still expect it to top $1 million during the next few years as more institutional investors increase their exposure to the world's top cryptocurrency.

如果这只是军刀策略，那么比特币的回调可能是一个很好的购买机会。如ARK Invest的Cathie Wood和Block（NYSE：SQ）创始人杰克·多尔西（Jack Dorsey）等著名的比特币公牛在未来几年中仍然希望它能超过100万美元，因为更多的机构投资者增加了他们对世界上最高加密货币的影响。

But if those tariffs take effect and the Fed reverses its interest rate cuts, Bitcoin could easily fall by half before it doubles again. After all, Bitcoin's price has still risen nearly 50% during the past 12 months and is up more than 850% during the past five years — so plenty of investors could be eager to book profits if interest rates stop falling or start rising.

但是，如果这些关税生效，而美联储扭转了其降低利率，则比特币很容易下降一半，然后再加倍。毕竟，在过去的12个月中，比特币的价格仍然上涨了近50％，在过去的五年中增长了850％以上 - 因此，如果利率停止下降或开始上涨，很多投资者可能渴望预订利润。

So should you buy Bitcoin today?

那你今天应该买比特币吗？

Bitcoin will inevitably remain out of favor as long as the threat of higher tariffs hangs over the market. But if you expect Bitcoin's price to rise during the next few decades, it could still be a good idea to nibble on the cryptocurrency on its recent pullback. It isn't a good idea to go all-in on Bitcoin at these volatile prices, but accumulating some more through these wild swings should smooth out your long-term returns through dollar-cost averaging and pay off during the next few years.

只要更高的关税威胁到市场上，比特币将不可避免地保持不佳。但是，如果您预计比特币在未来几十年中的价格会上涨，那么在最近的回调中忽略加密货币仍然是一个好主意。以这些波动的价格全力以赴，这不是一个好主意，但是通过这些狂野的挥杆积累更多的比特币，应该通过美元成本平均来平稳您的长期回报，并在未来几年内得到回报。

Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin and Block. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Leo Sun在提到的任何股票中都没有位置。 Motley傻瓜有位置并推荐比特币和障碍。 Motley傻瓜有披露政策。