比特幣（BTC）價格達到其歷史最高額為109,000美元

比特幣（Crypto：BTC）的價格在1月25日達到了其歷史最高額度超過109,000美元。去年1月，其第一筆價格交易所資金（ETFS）的批准

Bitcoin's (CRYPTO: BTC) price reached its all-time high of more than $109,000 on Jan. 25. The approvals of its first spot price exchange-traded funds (ETFs) last January, its latest halving (which every four years cuts the rewards in half for mining new coins) last April, three interest rate cuts, and President Donald Trump's election victory last November all brought the bulls back to the top cryptocurrency.

1月25日，比特幣（加密：BTC）的價格達到了其歷史最高高點，超過109,000美元。去年1月，對其第一筆價格交易所資金（ETF）的批准，其最新的一半（每四年都將獎勵減少了一半）去年四月，挖掘新硬幣的一半），去年4月，三個利率削減了唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trust）的勝利，並在11月贏得了勝利，這使得勝利了，這使得勝利了，這是11月的勝利。

But as of this writing, Bitcoin's price has retreated more than 20% to about $84,000. That decline can be largely attributed to the Trump administration's plans to impose or raise tariffs, which are stoking fears of higher inflation and elevated interest rates. Does this pullback present a buying opportunity, or will Bitcoin's price drop even further this year?

但是截至撰寫本文時，比特幣的價格已退縮超過20％至84,000美元。這種下降很大程度上可以歸因於特朗普政府徵收或提高關稅的計劃，這激發了人們對更高通貨膨脹和利率升高的擔憂。這種回調是否會帶來購買機會，還是比特幣的價格今年會進一步下跌？

Why are Trump's tariffs driving Bitcoin's price lower?

為什麼特朗普的關稅推動比特幣的價格降低？

To understand how Trump's tariffs affect Bitcoin, you should pay attention to the relationship between inflation, interest rates and the crypto market. When inflation runs too hot, the Federal Reserve raises its benchmark interest rates to cool down the economy and prevent the prices of everyday goods and services from skyrocketing.

要了解特朗普的關稅如何影響比特幣，您應該關注通貨膨脹，利率和加密貨幣市場之間的關係。當通貨膨脹率太高時，美聯儲將提高其基準利率，以降低經濟，並防止日常商品和服務的價格飛漲。

However, rising interest rates also drive investors away from more speculative investments — like growth stocks and cryptocurrencies — and toward fixed-income investments like CDs and Treasury bills, which offer relatively high risk-free yields. That's why Bitcoin's price dropped in 2022 as interest rates rose, but recovered in 2024 as rates finally began to decline.

但是，利率上升也使投資者脫離了更具投機性的投資（如增長股票和加密貨幣），以及固定收入的投資，例如CDS和Teareasury賬單，這些投資提供了相對較高的無風險收益率。這就是為什麼隨著利率上升，比特幣的價格在2022年下跌，但隨著利率終於開始下降，比特幣的價格在2024年恢復了。

Bitcoin's bulls expected interest rates to keep declining in 2025 as inflation cooled off. Trump had also publicly pressed the Fed to aggressively cut those rates. However, his own plans for higher tariffs could complicate that situation.

比特幣的公牛預計，隨著通貨膨脹的降溫，2025年的利率將在2025年不斷下降。特朗普還公開敦促美聯儲積極降低這些利率。但是，他自己提高關稅的計劃可能會使這種情況變得複雜。

Trump plans to levy 25% tariffs against products from Canada, Mexico and the European Union, as well as a 10% tariff on Canadian energy products like oil and electricity. Those tariffs are scheduled to take effect on March 4. Canada and Mexico, the U.S.'s two largest trade partners, plan to respond with retaliatory tariffs.

特朗普計劃對加拿大，墨西哥和歐盟的產品徵收25％的關稅，並對加拿大能源產品（如石油和電力）徵收10％的關稅。這些關稅定於3月4日生效。美國兩個最大的貿易夥伴加拿大和墨西哥計劃以報復性關稅做出回應。

China, which was already hit by a 10% tariff against its imports in early February, could also see those tariffs double on March 4. China is the U.S.'s third-largest trading partner, and has also responded with sweeping tariffs on U.S. products.

中國已經在2月初對進口的10％關稅打擊，也可能會在3月4日看到這些關稅的一倍。

All of those back-and-forth threats are sparking fears of higher inflation, which would force the Fed to pause its interest rate cuts or even raise its rates again. Those fears are driving investors away from Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies again, even though the Trump administration still aims to relax the government regulations for the cryptocurrency market.

所有這些來回威脅都引發了人們對更高通貨膨脹的擔憂，這將迫使美聯儲暫停其降低利率，甚至再次提高其利率。這些擔心會再次使投資者遠離比特幣和其他加密貨幣，即使特朗普政府仍然旨在放鬆政府對加密貨幣市場的法規。

Those uncertainties make it hard to buy Bitcoin

這些不確定性使購買比特幣變得困難

The Trump administration might simply be leveraging its threats of higher tariffs to negotiate more favorable trade deals with the country's top trading partners. Many analysts believe that if all of those planned tariffs and retaliatory tariffs were fully implemented, consumer prices in the U.S. would surge and spark even hotter inflation.

特朗普政府可能只是利用其更高關稅的威脅來與該國最高貿易夥伴談判更有利的貿易協議。許多分析人士認為，如果所有這些計劃的關稅和報復性關稅都已完全實施，那麼美國的消費者價格將會飆升，並引發更高的通貨膨脹。

If this is just a saber-rattling strategy, then Bitcoin's pullback might be a good buying opportunity. Prominent Bitcoin bulls like Ark Invest's Cathie Wood and Block (NYSE: SQ) founder Jack Dorsey still expect it to top $1 million during the next few years as more institutional investors increase their exposure to the world's top cryptocurrency.

如果這只是軍刀策略，那麼比特幣的回調可能是一個很好的購買機會。如ARK Invest的Cathie Wood和Block（NYSE：SQ）創始人傑克·多爾西（Jack Dorsey）等著名的比特幣公牛在未來幾年中仍然希望它能超過100萬美元，因為更多的機構投資者增加了他們對世界上最高加密貨幣的影響。

But if those tariffs take effect and the Fed reverses its interest rate cuts, Bitcoin could easily fall by half before it doubles again. After all, Bitcoin's price has still risen nearly 50% during the past 12 months and is up more than 850% during the past five years — so plenty of investors could be eager to book profits if interest rates stop falling or start rising.

但是，如果這些關稅生效，而美聯儲扭轉了其降低利率，則比特幣很容易下降一半，然後再加倍。畢竟，在過去的12個月中，比特幣的價格仍然上漲了近50％，在過去的五年中增長了850％以上 - 因此，如果利率停止下降或開始上漲，很多投資者可能渴望預訂利潤。

So should you buy Bitcoin today?

那你今天應該買比特幣嗎？

Bitcoin will inevitably remain out of favor as long as the threat of higher tariffs hangs over the market. But if you expect Bitcoin's price to rise during the next few decades, it could still be a good idea to nibble on the cryptocurrency on its recent pullback. It isn't a good idea to go all-in on Bitcoin at these volatile prices, but accumulating some more through these wild swings should smooth out your long-term returns through dollar-cost averaging and pay off during the next few years.

只要更高的關稅威脅到市場上，比特幣將不可避免地保持不佳。但是，如果您預計比特幣在未來幾十年中的價格會上漲，那麼在最近的回調中忽略加密貨幣仍然是一個好主意。以這些波動的價格全力以赴，這不是一個好主意，但是通過這些狂野的揮桿積累更多的比特幣，應該通過美元成本平均來平穩您的長期回報，並在未來幾年內得到回報。

Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin and Block. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Leo Sun在提到的任何股票中都沒有位置。 Motley傻瓜有位置並推薦比特幣和障礙。 Motley傻瓜有披露政策。