比特币（BTC）价格预测：富国银行预期的性能提高

该银行的研究检查了比特币与美元指数（DXY）的关系，该指数显示了反相关性。

Wells Fargo is expecting to see improved performance in Bitcoin to move toward positive trends following its difficult start in 2025. The bank’s research anticipates that the value of BTC could rise as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) declines.

富国银行（Wells Fargo）预计，比特币的性能有所提高，在2025年艰难的开始之后，该银行的研究预计BTC的价值可能会随着美元指数（DXY）的下降而提高。

The Impact of Dollar Strength on Bitcoin

美元强度对比特币的影响

In the latest report, Matt Sigel, the Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, quoted Wells Fargo, stating that BTC’s 23% pullback from its highs in early 2025 might be attributable to the surge in the value of the dollar in late 2024. From Q4 2024, to January 2025 the DXY increased again by nearly 10% reaching a high of 110.176. However since that high the DXY has declined by more than 6% reaching 103.197.

在最新报告中，Vaneck数字资产研究负责人Matt Sigel引用了富国银行的话，并指出，BTC在2025年初从其高点回调的23％可能归因于2024年底在2024年底的美元价值的增长。然而，由于高高的DXY下降了6％以上，达到103.197。

Bitcoin has shown an anti-correlation with the DXY in the past, which means when the dollar is gaining strength, Bitcoin is likely to decline as investors switch to the dollar and other safe-haven assets. In times of economic uncertainty, when the dollar rises, the value of Bitcoin decreases. On the other hand, when the dollar weakens, Bitcoin recovers as it is considered a higher risk and a higher reward.

比特币过去表现出与DXY的反相关性，这意味着，当美元获得实力时，比特币可能会下降，因为投资者转向美元和其他避风付款资产。在经济不确定性时期，当美元上涨时，比特币的价值下降。另一方面，当美元削弱时，比特币恢复了，因为它被认为是更高的风险和更高的奖励。

With the recent drop in the DXY, Wells Fargo believes Bitcoin may be on the verge of a price rally. Bitcoin could experience upward momentum as the dollar weakens, reversing the current downtrend.

随着DXY最近的下降，富国银行认为比特币可能处于价格集会的边缘。随着美元削弱，比特币可能会体验到向上的动力，从而逆转了当前的下降趋势。

Bitcoin Price Action: Consolidation and Key Levels

比特币价格动作：合并和关键水平

The analysis of Bitcoin’s price in March 2025 indicates that the price movement was very volatile. It briefly rose above $85k to reach $85,800, but being in a consolidation phase, it stabilized shortly after. The current Bitcoin price has found support around the $82,500 level, offering some resistance against the current decline in prices. The price then started to rise which indicated a potential for a bullish trend.

2025年3月对比特币价格的分析表明，价格变动非常波动。它短暂上涨了85,000美元，达到85,800美元，但处于合并阶段，不久之后就稳定了。目前的比特币价格已经在82,500美元的水平上获得了支持，这对目前的价格下降提供了一些抵抗。然后，价格开始上涨，这表明可能出现看涨趋势的潜力。

Bitcoin’s resistance remains firmly at the $85,000 level, where it encountered several failed attempts to break above. If Bitcoin can break through this level it could trigger a move toward the next resistance zones at $90,000 and beyond.

比特币的阻力仍然牢固地保持在85,000美元的水平上，在那里遇到了几次失败的尝试。如果比特币可以突破此水平，它可能会触发下一个阻力区域及以后的迈向下一个阻力区。

The market’s response to Bitcoin’s consolidation around this price range will be critical. A breakout above $86,000 could continue the upward trend while failing to break that level may see Bitcoin retest the $80,000 support range.

市场对比特币在此价格范围内的合并的反应至关重要。超过86,000美元的突破可能会继续上升趋势，而未能突破该水平可能会使比特币重新测试80,000美元的支持范围。

10-Week Lagging Correlation and Global Economic Uncertainty

10周的滞后相关性和全球经济不确定性

Furthermore, Wells Fargo highlights that Bitcoin usually correlates negatively with the DXY index with a 10-week lag. While the DXY index rises, it was found that the value of Bitcoin declines and when the DXY index declines, Bitcoin gains value. This pattern indicates that the drop in the DXY since January could indicate the potential rise in the price of Bitcoin. Such buffering has happened in the past, signaling that the existing circumstances might favor Bitcoin’s price rebound.

此外，富国银行（Wells Fargo）突出显示了比特币通常与10周滞后的DXY指数负相关。虽然DXY索引上升，但发现比特币的值下降以及DXY索引何时下降，比特币获得了价值。这种模式表明，自1月以来DXY的下降可能表明比特币价格的潜在上涨。过去发生了这种缓冲，表明现有情况可能有利于比特币的价格反弹。

However, there is still much to contend with when predicting Bitcoin’s future. Volatility may arise from global and regional issues such as political uncertainties caused by President Donald Trump’s administration. Moreover, decisions regarding interest rates and inflation by the Federal Reserve will continue to dictate the valuation of the dollar and hence Bitcoins.

但是，在预测比特币的未来时，仍然有很多要抗衡的问题。波动性可能来自全球和地区问题，例如唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）总统政府造成的政治不确定性。此外，关于美联储的利率和通货膨胀的决定将继续决定美元的估值，从而决定比特币。

Wells Fargo’s analysis complements other market commentators who have noted that dips in the DXY have previously indicated bullish Bitcoin price action. However, due to the current state of the global markets, investors should be careful since economic fluctuations may reverse BTC’s positive development in the short term.

富国银行（Wells Fargo）的分析补充了其他市场评论员，他们指出DXY中的下降以前表明了看涨的比特币价格行动。但是，由于全球市场的现状，投资者应谨慎，因为经济波动可能会在短期内逆转BTC的积极发展。