比特幣（BTC）價格預測：富國銀行預期的性能提高

該銀行的研究檢查了比特幣與美元指數（DXY）的關係，該指數顯示了反相關性。

Wells Fargo is expecting to see improved performance in Bitcoin to move toward positive trends following its difficult start in 2025. The bank’s research anticipates that the value of BTC could rise as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) declines.

富國銀行（Wells Fargo）預計，比特幣的性能有所提高，在2025年艱難的開始之後，該銀行的研究預計BTC的價值可能會隨著美元指數（DXY）的下降而提高。

The Impact of Dollar Strength on Bitcoin

美元強度對比特幣的影響

In the latest report, Matt Sigel, the Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, quoted Wells Fargo, stating that BTC’s 23% pullback from its highs in early 2025 might be attributable to the surge in the value of the dollar in late 2024. From Q4 2024, to January 2025 the DXY increased again by nearly 10% reaching a high of 110.176. However since that high the DXY has declined by more than 6% reaching 103.197.

在最新報告中，Vaneck數字資產研究負責人Matt Sigel引用了富國銀行的話，並指出，BTC在2025年初從其高點回調的23％可能歸因於2024年底在2024年底的美元價值的增長。然而，由於高高的DXY下降了6％以上，達到103.197。

Bitcoin has shown an anti-correlation with the DXY in the past, which means when the dollar is gaining strength, Bitcoin is likely to decline as investors switch to the dollar and other safe-haven assets. In times of economic uncertainty, when the dollar rises, the value of Bitcoin decreases. On the other hand, when the dollar weakens, Bitcoin recovers as it is considered a higher risk and a higher reward.

比特幣過去表現出與DXY的反相關性，這意味著，當美元獲得實力時，比特幣可能會下降，因為投資者轉向美元和其他避風付款資產。在經濟不確定性時期，當美元上漲時，比特幣的價值下降。另一方面，當美元削弱時，比特幣恢復了，因為它被認為是更高的風險和更高的獎勵。

With the recent drop in the DXY, Wells Fargo believes Bitcoin may be on the verge of a price rally. Bitcoin could experience upward momentum as the dollar weakens, reversing the current downtrend.

隨著DXY最近的下降，富國銀行認為比特幣可能處於價格集會的邊緣。隨著美元削弱，比特幣可能會體驗到向上的動力，從而逆轉了當前的下降趨勢。

Bitcoin Price Action: Consolidation and Key Levels

比特幣價格動作：合併和關鍵水平

The analysis of Bitcoin’s price in March 2025 indicates that the price movement was very volatile. It briefly rose above $85k to reach $85,800, but being in a consolidation phase, it stabilized shortly after. The current Bitcoin price has found support around the $82,500 level, offering some resistance against the current decline in prices. The price then started to rise which indicated a potential for a bullish trend.

2025年3月對比特幣價格的分析表明，價格變動非常波動。它短暫上漲了85,000美元，達到85,800美元，但處於合併階段，不久之後就穩定了。目前的比特幣價格已經在82,500美元的水平上獲得了支持，這對目前的價格下降提供了一些抵抗。然後，價格開始上漲，這表明可能出現看漲趨勢的潛力。

Bitcoin’s resistance remains firmly at the $85,000 level, where it encountered several failed attempts to break above. If Bitcoin can break through this level it could trigger a move toward the next resistance zones at $90,000 and beyond.

比特幣的阻力仍然牢固地保持在85,000美元的水平上，在那裡遇到了幾次失敗的嘗試。如果比特幣可以突破此水平，它可能會觸發下一個阻力區域及以後的邁向下一個阻力區。

The market’s response to Bitcoin’s consolidation around this price range will be critical. A breakout above $86,000 could continue the upward trend while failing to break that level may see Bitcoin retest the $80,000 support range.

市場對比特幣在此價格範圍內的合併的反應至關重要。超過86,000美元的突破可能會繼續上升趨勢，而未能突破該水平可能會使比特幣重新測試80,000美元的支持範圍。

10-Week Lagging Correlation and Global Economic Uncertainty

10週的滯後相關性和全球經濟不確定性

Furthermore, Wells Fargo highlights that Bitcoin usually correlates negatively with the DXY index with a 10-week lag. While the DXY index rises, it was found that the value of Bitcoin declines and when the DXY index declines, Bitcoin gains value. This pattern indicates that the drop in the DXY since January could indicate the potential rise in the price of Bitcoin. Such buffering has happened in the past, signaling that the existing circumstances might favor Bitcoin’s price rebound.

此外，富國銀行（Wells Fargo）突出顯示了比特幣通常與10週滯後的DXY指數負相關。雖然DXY索引上升，但發現比特幣的值下降以及DXY索引何時下降，比特幣獲得了價值。這種模式表明，自1月以來DXY的下降可能表明比特幣價格的潛在上漲。過去發生了這種緩衝，表明現有情況可能有利於比特幣的價格反彈。

However, there is still much to contend with when predicting Bitcoin’s future. Volatility may arise from global and regional issues such as political uncertainties caused by President Donald Trump’s administration. Moreover, decisions regarding interest rates and inflation by the Federal Reserve will continue to dictate the valuation of the dollar and hence Bitcoins.

但是，在預測比特幣的未來時，仍然有很多要抗衡的問題。波動性可能來自全球和地區問題，例如唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）總統政府造成的政治不確定性。此外，關於美聯儲的利率和通貨膨脹的決定將繼續決定美元的估值，從而決定比特幣。

Wells Fargo’s analysis complements other market commentators who have noted that dips in the DXY have previously indicated bullish Bitcoin price action. However, due to the current state of the global markets, investors should be careful since economic fluctuations may reverse BTC’s positive development in the short term.

富國銀行（Wells Fargo）的分析補充了其他市場評論員，他們指出DXY中的下降以前表明了看漲的比特幣價格行動。但是，由於全球市場的現狀，投資者應謹慎，因為經濟波動可能會在短期內逆轉BTC的積極發展。