比特币 (BTC) 价格预测：BTC 能否在一月份创下新的 ATH？

在 2024 年经历了不稳定的结局之后，过去几天对比特币的价格来说是有利的。排名第一的加密货币已重新突破 10 万美元大关。

After a shaky end to 2024, the past few days have been good for Bitcoin, price-wise. The number one crypto has climbed back over the US$100k hurdle, trading for US$102,235 (AU$163,861) at the time of writing, a solid 10% increase week-on-week.

在 2024 年经历了不稳定的结局之后，过去几天对比特币的价格来说是有利的。排名第一的加密货币已重新突破 10 万美元大关，在撰写本文时交易价格为 102,235 美元（163,861 澳元），每周稳定增长 10%。

The price increase comes as the whole crypto market moves up, with The Sandbox (SAND) and Worldcoin (WLD) making the largest 24-hour gains with 8.6% and 7.6% respectively.

价格上涨之际，整个加密货币市场也在上涨，其中 The Sandbox (SAND) 和 Worldcoin (WLD) 的 24 小时涨幅最大，分别为 8.6% 和 7.6%。

Can Bitcoin Set a New ATH in January?

比特币能否在 1 月份创下新的 ATH？

The question on many investors’ minds is then: can BTC break the all-time high (ATH) it set just before Christmas on December 18? That day Bitcoin surged to an unprecedented US$108,268 (AU$173,548), but retreated around 14% over the following days.

许多投资者心中的问题是：BTC 能否突破 12 月 18 日圣诞节前创下的历史新高（ATH）？当天，比特币飙升至前所未有的 108,268 美元（173,548 澳元），但在接下来的几天里回落了 14% 左右。

Analysts at Bitfinex believe that although a larger pullback is still in the cards for Q1 of 2025, “Bitcoin is well-positioned for further gains in the medium term”.

Bitfinex 分析师认为，尽管 2025 年第一季度仍有可能出现更大幅度的回调，但“比特币已做好在中期内进一步上涨的准备”。

In a recent report, the analysts explained that the Liquidity Inventory Ratio has significantly decreased indicating a sharp reduction in readily available Bitcoin.

在最近的一份报告中，分析师解释说，流动性库存比率显着下降，表明可用的比特币急剧减少。

The Liquidity Inventory Ratio measures how long the current Bitcoin supply can satisfy market demand.

流动性库存比率衡量当前比特币供应能够满足市场需求的时间。

Additionally, Bitcoin miners, who typically sell their holdings during periods when rewards are halved (known as halving years), have been retaining their coins rather than selling them, the analysts added.

此外，分析师补充说，比特币矿工通常会在奖励减半期间（称为减半年）出售其持有的比特币，但他们一直保留着他们的比特币，而不是出售它们。

This change is due to the miners’ high unrealised profits, leading to a decrease in the amount of Bitcoin they send to exchanges, which are now at the lowest levels in several years.

这一变化是由于矿工的未实现利润较高，导致他们发送到交易所的比特币数量减少，目前已处于几年来的最低水平。

In simple terms, their analysis suggests that the recent dip was somewhat cushioned by lower selling pressure by miners and a decrease in Bitcoin availability due to the rapid tightening of liquidity.

简而言之，他们的分析表明，最近的下跌在一定程度上受到矿商抛售压力下降以及流动性迅速收紧导致比特币供应量减少的影响。

What Does the Future Hold for the BTC Price By the End Of 2025?

到 2025 年底，比特币价格的未来走势如何？

And beyond the first quarter? Analysts at Bernstein think we’ll see US$200k per Bitcoin by the end of the year. Their view is based on what they call the “Infinity Age”.

第一季度之后呢？ Bernstein 的分析师认为，到今年年底，每个比特币的价值将达到 20 万美元。他们的观点基于他们所谓的“无限时代”。

Related: JPMorgan: ‘Debasement Trade’ Elevates Gold and Bitcoin in Investor Portfolios

相关：摩根大通：“贬值交易”提升了投资者投资组合中的黄金和比特币

And no, that has nothing to do with Avengers: Infinity War. Gautam Chhugani, a Bernstein analyst, explained that what they mean here is the broad and widespread adoption of crypto until it’s “no longer controversial — just part of the financial system built for the new intelligent age”. 

不，这与《复仇者联盟：无限战争》无关。伯恩斯坦分析师高塔姆·楚加尼 (Gautam Chhugani) 解释说，他们的意思是加密货币的广泛采用，直到它“不再有争议——只是为新智能时代构建的金融体系的一部分”。

Considering that banks, pension funds and other financial institutions are eyeing crypto in one form or another, that US$200k target is not that kooky any longer.

考虑到银行、养老基金和其他金融机构都在以某种形式关注加密货币，20 万美元的目标不再那么奇怪了。