比特幣 (BTC) 價格預測：BTC 能否在一月創下新的 ATH？

在 2024 年經歷了不穩定的結局之後，過去幾天對比特幣的價格來說是有利的。排名第一的加密貨幣已重新突破 10 萬美元大關。

After a shaky end to 2024, the past few days have been good for Bitcoin, price-wise. The number one crypto has climbed back over the US$100k hurdle, trading for US$102,235 (AU$163,861) at the time of writing, a solid 10% increase week-on-week.

在 2024 年經歷了不穩定的結局之後，過去幾天對比特幣的價格來說是有利的。排名第一的加密貨幣已重新突破 10 萬美元大關，在撰寫本文時交易價格為 102,235 美元（163,861 澳元），每週穩定成長 10%。

The price increase comes as the whole crypto market moves up, with The Sandbox (SAND) and Worldcoin (WLD) making the largest 24-hour gains with 8.6% and 7.6% respectively.

在物價上漲之際，整個加密貨幣市場也在上漲，其中 The Sandbox (SAND) 和 Worldcoin (WLD) 的 24 小時漲幅最大，分別為 8.6% 和 7.6%。

Can Bitcoin Set a New ATH in January?

比特幣能否在 1 月創下新的 ATH？

The question on many investors’ minds is then: can BTC break the all-time high (ATH) it set just before Christmas on December 18? That day Bitcoin surged to an unprecedented US$108,268 (AU$173,548), but retreated around 14% over the following days.

許多投資者心中的問題是：BTC 能否突破 12 月 18 日聖誕節前創下的歷史新高（ATH）？當天，比特幣飆升至前所未有的 108,268 美元（173,548 澳元），但在接下來的幾天裡回落了 14% 左右。

Analysts at Bitfinex believe that although a larger pullback is still in the cards for Q1 of 2025, “Bitcoin is well-positioned for further gains in the medium term”.

Bitfinex 分析師認為，儘管 2025 年第一季仍有可能出現更大幅度的回調，但「比特幣已做好在中期內進一步上漲的準備」。

In a recent report, the analysts explained that the Liquidity Inventory Ratio has significantly decreased indicating a sharp reduction in readily available Bitcoin.

在最近的一份報告中，分析師解釋說，流動性庫存比率顯著下降，顯示可用的比特幣急劇減少。

The Liquidity Inventory Ratio measures how long the current Bitcoin supply can satisfy market demand.

流動性庫存比率衡量當前比特幣供應能夠滿足市場需求的時間。

Additionally, Bitcoin miners, who typically sell their holdings during periods when rewards are halved (known as halving years), have been retaining their coins rather than selling them, the analysts added.

此外，分析師補充說，比特幣礦工通常會在獎勵減半期間（稱為減半年）出售其持有的比特幣，但他們一直保留他們的比特幣，而不是出售它們。

This change is due to the miners’ high unrealised profits, leading to a decrease in the amount of Bitcoin they send to exchanges, which are now at the lowest levels in several years.

這一變化是由於礦工的未實現利潤較高，導致他們發送到交易所的比特幣數量減少，目前已處於幾年來的最低水平。

In simple terms, their analysis suggests that the recent dip was somewhat cushioned by lower selling pressure by miners and a decrease in Bitcoin availability due to the rapid tightening of liquidity.

簡而言之，他們的分析表明，最近的下跌在一定程度上受到礦商拋售壓力下降以及流動性迅速收緊導致比特幣供應量減少的影響。

What Does the Future Hold for the BTC Price By the End Of 2025?

到 2025 年底，比特幣價格的未來走勢如何？

And beyond the first quarter? Analysts at Bernstein think we’ll see US$200k per Bitcoin by the end of the year. Their view is based on what they call the “Infinity Age”.

第一季之後呢？ Bernstein 的分析師認為，到今年年底，每個比特幣的價值將達到 20 萬美元。他們的觀點是基於他們所謂的「無限時代」。

Related: JPMorgan: ‘Debasement Trade’ Elevates Gold and Bitcoin in Investor Portfolios

相關：摩根大通：「貶值交易」提升了投資者投資組合中的黃金和比特幣

And no, that has nothing to do with Avengers: Infinity War. Gautam Chhugani, a Bernstein analyst, explained that what they mean here is the broad and widespread adoption of crypto until it’s “no longer controversial — just part of the financial system built for the new intelligent age”. 

不，這與《復仇者聯盟：無限之戰》無關。伯恩斯坦分析師高塔姆·楚加尼(Gautam Chhugani) 解釋說，他們的意思是加密貨幣的廣泛採用，直到它“不再有爭議——只是為新智能時代構建的金融體系的一部分” 。

Considering that banks, pension funds and other financial institutions are eyeing crypto in one form or another, that US$200k target is not that kooky any longer.

考慮到銀行、退休基金和其他金融機構都在以某種形式關注加密貨幣，20 萬美元的目標不再那麼奇怪了。