比特币（BTC）的价格急剧下跌，本周从创纪录的109K下降到77k

在过去的30天中，比特币急剧下降，本周从创纪录的高点降至77k

Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a sharp decline over the past 30 days, falling from a record high of 109k to lows of 77k this week, a level last seen in November last year. This puts losses at almost 30%.

在过去的30天中，比特币（BTC）的下降幅度急剧下降，从创纪录的109k到本周的低点，这是去年11月最后一次出现的水平。这使损失近30％。

While many investors fear a bear market, which is typically measured by a 20% drop from a recent high in stock indices, a 30% decline in crypto doesn’t mean it has entered a bear market, given the high levels of volatility that are often seen in crypto pricing. An even deeper selloff could still be on the cards. But these corrections are very normal in Bitcoin’s bull market.

尽管许多投资者担心熊市通常比最近的股票指数高20％衡量的熊市，但加密货币下降30％并不意味着它已经进入了熊市市场，因为在加密定价中经常看到的高度波动性。更深层次的抛售仍然可以在卡上。但是，在比特币的牛市中，这些更正非常正常。

Bitcoin has seen multiple 30%+ corrections in previous bull markets before hitting new highs.

在达到新高点之前，比特币在以前的牛市中已经进行了多次校正。

Let’s not forget that during the bull run in the 2021 cycle, Bitcoin lost more than 50% of its value in May, only to recover rapidly in the following months and register fresh record highs by November.

不要忘记，在2021年周期的公牛运行期间，比特币在5月的价值损失了50％以上，只是在接下来的几个月中迅速恢复，并在11月之前注册新的记录。

Furthermore, Bitcoin declined 20% from its 2024 record high of 73k at the start of 2024. This record level was quickly reached after the Bitcoin ETFs were launched in January, boosting the price to 73K in March, a few months later, and BTC had fallen to 55k by May.

此外，比特币从2024年初的2024年创纪录的73K下降了20％。在1月份发射比特币ETF之后，迅速达到了这一记录水平，几个月后，几个月后，BTC在5月降至5.5 k。

On-chain metrics turn cautious

链上的指标变得谨慎

On-chain data metrics are also starting to show signs of caution. According to CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator is at its most bearish level this cycle. This level has preceded a sharp correction in previous cycles and, in some instances, the start of a more prolonged downturn.

链上数据指标也开始显示出谨慎的迹象。根据隐式量，比特币牛市市场周期指标在本周期中处于最不钟表水平。在以前的周期中，此水平已经进行了急剧的校正，在某些情况下，开始了延长的下滑。

Meanwhile, whale accumulation, which has traditionally helped support the BTC price through vast levels of acquisitions, shows signs of slowing. Spot BTC ETFs have also flipped to net sellers, highlighting weakness in institutional demand and adding further pressure to prices.

同时，传统上通过广泛的收购有助于支持BTC价格的鲸鱼积累表现出放缓的迹象。现货BTC ETF也已转向净卖方，强调了机构需求的疲软，并增加了价格的压力。

Macro factors weigh on BTC & risk assets

宏观因素对BTC和风险资产的重量

The weakness in Bitcoin comes as the stock market has also experienced a steep decline, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq falling over 10% from its record high into correction territory and the S&P 500 down 8.5%. Investors have sold out of risk assets across the board as trade tensions targeting major US trading partners have rattled the markets, fueling concerns surrounding the US economic outlook.

比特币的弱点是因为股市也经历了急剧下降，纳斯达克技术越来越大，其创纪录的高于校正领域的纪录超过10％，而标准普尔500指数下跌了8.5％。由于针对美国主要贸易伙伴的贸易紧张局势，投资者全面售罄了风险资产，这激发了围绕美国经济前景的担忧。

The latest data from the prediction platform Polymarket assigns a 39% probability of a US recession in 2025, up from 23% at the end of February. Furthermore, investment banks have also been upwardly revising the possibility of a US downturn.

预测平台Polmoarket的最新数据分配了2025年美国衰退的39％概率，高于2月底的23％。此外，投资银行还在上升地修改了美国低迷的可能性。

Given the close correlation between US stocks and Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency could struggle to thrive while equities still fall. The macro backdrop would need to stabilise, recession risks recede, and Fed rate cut optimism be revived to lift risk sentiment and risk assets.

鉴于美国股票与比特币之间的密切相关性，加密货币可能会在股票仍然下降时蓬勃发展。宏观背景需要稳定，衰退风险退缩，并降低了乐观态度，以提高风险情绪和风险资产。

What price is a Bitcoin bear market?

比特币熊市的价格是多少？

While stock and stock indices are said to be in a bear market after losses of 20% or more from a recent high, this doesn’t work for Bitcoin, owing to its inherently volatile nature. Instead, the 50 Simple Moving Average on the weekly chart could be a valuable metric to follow. The price falling below the weekly 50 SMA could provide the trigger to call a bear market. The BTC price moved below this dynamic support in the bear markets of 2022 and 2018. The weekly 50 SMA sits at 75k. Should the price see a weekly close below this level, bears could take control.

尽管据说股票和股票指数在最近的高点损失20％或更高后处于熊市，但由于其固有的挥发性性质，这对比特币不起作用。取而代之的是，每周图表上的50个简单移动平均值可能是一个有价值的指标。低于每周50 SMA的价格可能会提供触发熊市的扳机。 BTC的价格在2022年和2018年的熊市中的这种动态支持低于这种动态支持。每周50 SMA以75K的价格排名。如果价格看到低于此水平的每周关闭，熊可以控制。