比特幣（BTC）的價格急劇下跌，本週從創紀錄的109K下降到77k

在過去的30天中，比特幣急劇下降，本週從創紀錄的高點降至77k

Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a sharp decline over the past 30 days, falling from a record high of 109k to lows of 77k this week, a level last seen in November last year. This puts losses at almost 30%.

在過去的30天中，比特幣（BTC）的下降幅度急劇下降，從創紀錄的109k到本週的低點，這是去年11月最後一次出現的水平。這使損失近30％。

While many investors fear a bear market, which is typically measured by a 20% drop from a recent high in stock indices, a 30% decline in crypto doesn’t mean it has entered a bear market, given the high levels of volatility that are often seen in crypto pricing. An even deeper selloff could still be on the cards. But these corrections are very normal in Bitcoin’s bull market.

儘管許多投資者擔心熊市通常比最近的股票指數高20％衡量的熊市，但加密貨幣下降30％並不意味著它已經進入了熊市市場，因為在加密定價中經常看到的高度波動性。更深層次的拋售仍然可以在卡上。但是，在比特幣的牛市中，這些更正非常正常。

Bitcoin has seen multiple 30%+ corrections in previous bull markets before hitting new highs.

在達到新高點之前，比特幣在以前的牛市中已經進行了多次校正。

Let’s not forget that during the bull run in the 2021 cycle, Bitcoin lost more than 50% of its value in May, only to recover rapidly in the following months and register fresh record highs by November.

不要忘記，在2021年周期的公牛運行期間，比特幣在5月的價值損失了50％以上，只是在接下來的幾個月中迅速恢復，並在11月之前註冊新的記錄。

Furthermore, Bitcoin declined 20% from its 2024 record high of 73k at the start of 2024. This record level was quickly reached after the Bitcoin ETFs were launched in January, boosting the price to 73K in March, a few months later, and BTC had fallen to 55k by May.

此外，比特幣從2024年初的2024年創紀錄的73K下降了20％。在1月份發射比特幣ETF之後，迅速達到了這一記錄水平，幾個月後，幾個月後，BTC在5月降至5.5 k。

On-chain metrics turn cautious

鏈上的指標變得謹慎

On-chain data metrics are also starting to show signs of caution. According to CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator is at its most bearish level this cycle. This level has preceded a sharp correction in previous cycles and, in some instances, the start of a more prolonged downturn.

鏈上數據指標也開始顯示出謹慎的跡象。根據隱式量，比特幣牛市市場週期指標在本週期中處於最不鐘錶水平。在以前的周期中，此水平已經進行了急劇的校正，在某些情況下，開始了延長的下滑。

Meanwhile, whale accumulation, which has traditionally helped support the BTC price through vast levels of acquisitions, shows signs of slowing. Spot BTC ETFs have also flipped to net sellers, highlighting weakness in institutional demand and adding further pressure to prices.

同時，傳統上通過廣泛的收購有助於支持BTC價格的鯨魚積累表現出放緩的跡象。現貨BTC ETF也已轉向淨賣方，強調了機構需求的疲軟，並增加了價格的壓力。

Macro factors weigh on BTC & risk assets

宏觀因素對BTC和風險資產的重量

The weakness in Bitcoin comes as the stock market has also experienced a steep decline, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq falling over 10% from its record high into correction territory and the S&P 500 down 8.5%. Investors have sold out of risk assets across the board as trade tensions targeting major US trading partners have rattled the markets, fueling concerns surrounding the US economic outlook.

比特幣的弱點是因為股市也經歷了急劇下降，納斯達克技術越來越大，其創紀錄的高於校正領域的紀錄超過10％，而標準普爾500指數下跌了8.5％。由於針對美國主要貿易夥伴的貿易緊張局勢，投資者全面售罄了風險資產，這激發了圍繞美國經濟前景的擔憂。

The latest data from the prediction platform Polymarket assigns a 39% probability of a US recession in 2025, up from 23% at the end of February. Furthermore, investment banks have also been upwardly revising the possibility of a US downturn.

預測平台Polmoarket的最新數據分配了2025年美國衰退的39％概率，高於2月底的23％。此外，投資銀行還在上升地修改了美國低迷的可能性。

Given the close correlation between US stocks and Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency could struggle to thrive while equities still fall. The macro backdrop would need to stabilise, recession risks recede, and Fed rate cut optimism be revived to lift risk sentiment and risk assets.

鑑於美國股票與比特幣之間的密切相關性，加密貨幣可能會在股票仍然下降時蓬勃發展。宏觀背景需要穩定，衰退風險退縮，並降低了樂觀態度，以提高風險情緒和風險資產。

What price is a Bitcoin bear market?

比特幣熊市的價格是多少？

While stock and stock indices are said to be in a bear market after losses of 20% or more from a recent high, this doesn’t work for Bitcoin, owing to its inherently volatile nature. Instead, the 50 Simple Moving Average on the weekly chart could be a valuable metric to follow. The price falling below the weekly 50 SMA could provide the trigger to call a bear market. The BTC price moved below this dynamic support in the bear markets of 2022 and 2018. The weekly 50 SMA sits at 75k. Should the price see a weekly close below this level, bears could take control.

儘管據說股票和股票指數在最近的高點損失20％或更高後處於熊市，但由於其固有的揮發性性質，這對比特幣不起作用。取而代之的是，每週圖表上的50個簡單移動平均值可能是一個有價值的指標。低於每週50 SMA的價格可能會提供觸發熊市的扳機。 BTC的價格在2022年和2018年的熊市中的這種動態支持低於這種動態支持。每週50 SMA以75K的價格排名。如果價格看到低於此水平的每週關閉，熊可以控制。