Bitcoin (BTC) Price Falls Sharply, Dropping From a Record High of 109k to 77k This Week

Bitcoin has fallen sharply over the past 30 days, falling from a record high of 109k to a low of 77k this week

Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a sharp decline over the past 30 days, falling from a record high of 109k to lows of 77k this week, a level last seen in November last year. This puts losses at almost 30%.

While many investors fear a bear market, which is typically measured by a 20% drop from a recent high in stock indices, a 30% decline in crypto doesn’t mean it has entered a bear market, given the high levels of volatility that are often seen in crypto pricing. An even deeper selloff could still be on the cards. But these corrections are very normal in Bitcoin’s bull market.

Bitcoin has seen multiple 30%+ corrections in previous bull markets before hitting new highs.

Let’s not forget that during the bull run in the 2021 cycle, Bitcoin lost more than 50% of its value in May, only to recover rapidly in the following months and register fresh record highs by November.

Furthermore, Bitcoin declined 20% from its 2024 record high of 73k at the start of 2024. This record level was quickly reached after the Bitcoin ETFs were launched in January, boosting the price to 73K in March, a few months later, and BTC had fallen to 55k by May.

On-chain metrics turn cautious

On-chain data metrics are also starting to show signs of caution. According to CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator is at its most bearish level this cycle. This level has preceded a sharp correction in previous cycles and, in some instances, the start of a more prolonged downturn.

Meanwhile, whale accumulation, which has traditionally helped support the BTC price through vast levels of acquisitions, shows signs of slowing. Spot BTC ETFs have also flipped to net sellers, highlighting weakness in institutional demand and adding further pressure to prices.

Macro factors weigh on BTC & risk assets

The weakness in Bitcoin comes as the stock market has also experienced a steep decline, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq falling over 10% from its record high into correction territory and the S&P 500 down 8.5%. Investors have sold out of risk assets across the board as trade tensions targeting major US trading partners have rattled the markets, fueling concerns surrounding the US economic outlook.

The latest data from the prediction platform Polymarket assigns a 39% probability of a US recession in 2025, up from 23% at the end of February. Furthermore, investment banks have also been upwardly revising the possibility of a US downturn.

Given the close correlation between US stocks and Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency could struggle to thrive while equities still fall. The macro backdrop would need to stabilise, recession risks recede, and Fed rate cut optimism be revived to lift risk sentiment and risk assets.

What price is a Bitcoin bear market?

While stock and stock indices are said to be in a bear market after losses of 20% or more from a recent high, this doesn’t work for Bitcoin, owing to its inherently volatile nature. Instead, the 50 Simple Moving Average on the weekly chart could be a valuable metric to follow. The price falling below the weekly 50 SMA could provide the trigger to call a bear market. The BTC price moved below this dynamic support in the bear markets of 2022 and 2018. The weekly 50 SMA sits at 75k. Should the price see a weekly close below this level, bears could take control.