自3月2日以来，比特币（BTC）价格下跌了12％，当时几乎达到94,000美元

自3月2日以来，比特币（BTC）下跌了12％，当时几乎达到了94,000美元。有趣的是，在同一时期，美元削弱了一篮子外币

Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped 12% since March 2, when it nearly reached $94,000. Interestingly, during the same period, the US dollar has weakened against a basket of foreign currencies, which is usually seen as a positive sign for scarce assets like BTC.

自3月2日以来，比特币（BTC）下降了12％，当时它几乎达到了94,000美元。有趣的是，在同一时期，美元对一篮子外币削弱了，这通常被视为像BTC这样的稀缺资产的积极信号。

Investors are now wondering why Bitcoin hasn't reacted positively to the declining DXY and what could be the next factor to trigger a decoupling from this trend.

投资者现在想知道为什么比特币对DXY下降的反应没有积极反应，以及触发与这一趋势脱钩的下一个因素。

Up to mid-2024, the US Dollar Index (DXY, left) had an inverse relationship with Bitcoin’s price, meaning the cryptocurrency often rose when the dollar weakened. During that time, Bitcoin was widely seen as a hedge against inflation, thanks to its lack of correlation with the stock market and its fixed monetary policy, similar to digital gold.

直到2024年中期，美元指数（DXY，左）与比特币的价格有着反比的关系，这意味着当美元削弱时，加密货币经常上升。在此期间，由于与股票市场和固定货币政策的相关性，比特币被广泛视为抵抗通货膨胀的对冲，类似于数字黄金。

However, correlation does not imply causation, and the past eight months have shown that the rationale for investing in Bitcoin evolves over time. For instance, some analysts claim that Bitcoin’s price aligns with global monetary supply as central banks adjust economic policies, while others emphasize its role as uncensorable money, enabling free transactions for governments and individuals alike.

但是，相关性并不意味着因果关系，过去八个月表明，投资比特币随着时间的推移而发展的理由。例如，一些分析师声称，随着中央银行调整经济政策，比特币的价格与全球货币供应一致，而其他分析师则强调其作用是无可抑制的货币，为政府和个人提供了免费的交易。

Bitcoin gains from DXY weakness can take months or years to materialize

DXY弱点的比特币收益可能需要数月或数年才能实现

Julien Bittel, the head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, noted that the recent drop in the US Dollar Index—from 107.6 on Feb. 28 to 103.60 on March 7—has occurred only three times in the past twelve years.

全球宏观投资者宏观研究负责人朱利安·比特尔（Julien Bittel）指出，最近的美元指数下降了，从2月28日至103.60 3月7日起，在过去的十二年中仅发生了三次。

Source: BittelJulien

资料来源：小圣诞节

Bittel’s post on X highlights that Bitcoin’s price surged after the last significant drop in the DXY Index in November 2022, as well as following the March 2020 event, when the US dollar fell from 99.5 to 95 during the early weeks of the COVID-19 crisis. His analysis emphasizes that “financial conditions lead risk assets by a couple of months. Right now, financial conditions are easing – and fast.”

Bittel在X上发表的帖子突出显示，比特币的价格在2022年11月的DXY指数上次大幅下降之后，以及2020年3月的活动之后，当时美元从99.5下降到95次，在Covid-19危机的早期。他的分析强调，“财务状况将风险资产降低了几个月。目前，财务状况正在缓解 - 快速。”

While Bittel’s comments are highly bullish for Bitcoin’s price, the positive effects of past US dollar weakness took more than six months to materialize and, in some cases, even a couple of years, such as during the 2016-17 cycle. The current underperformance of Bitcoin may be due to “short-term macro fears,” according to user @21_XBT.

尽管Bittel的评论对比特币的价格高度看涨，但过去美元弱点的积极影响花费了超过六个月的时间才能实现，在某些情况下，甚至几年，例如在2016-17周期期间。根据用户 @21_xbt的说法，比特币当前的表现不佳可能是由于“短期宏观恐惧”所致。

The analyst briefly lists several reasons for Bitcoin’s recent price weakness, including “Tariffs, Doge, Yen carry trade, yields, DXY, growth scares,” but concludes that none of these factors alter Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals, suggesting its price will eventually benefit.

该分析师简要列出了比特币最近的价格弱点的几个原因，包括“关税，门槛，日元携带贸易，收益率，DXY，增长恐惧”，但得出结论，这些因素都没有改变比特币的长期基本原理，这表明其价格最终将受益。

For example, cuts by the US Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) are highly positive for the economy in the medium term, as they reduce overall debt and interest payments, freeing up resources for productivity-boosting measures. Similarly, tariffs could prove beneficial if the Trump administration achieves a more favorable trade balance by increasing US exports, as this could pave the way for sustainable economic growth.

例如，美国政府效率部（DOGE）的削减在中期对经济的高度积极，因为它们减少了总体债务和利息，从而释放了提高生产力措施的资源。同样，如果特朗普政府通过增加美国出口来实现更有利的贸易平衡，关税可能会证明是有益的，因为这可能为可持续的经济增长铺平道路。

Related: Crypto market’s biggest risks in 2025: US recession, circular crypto economy

相关：加密货币市场在2025年的最大风险：美国衰退，循环加密经济

The measures taken by the US government have trimmed excessive but unsustainable growth, causing short-term pain while lowering yields on US Treasury notes, making it cheaper to refinance debt. However, there is no indication that the US dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency is weakening, nor is there reduced demand for US Treasurys. As a result, the recent decline in the DXY Index does not directly correlate with Bitcoin’s appeal.

美国政府采取的措施削减了过度但不可持续的增长，造成了短期疼痛，同时降低了美国财政部票据的收益率，从而使再融资债务更便宜。但是，没有迹象表明美元的作用是全球储备货币正在削弱，也没有减少对美国财政部的需求。结果，最近的DXY指数下降与比特币的吸引力没有直接相关。

Over time, as user @21_XBT noted, macroeconomic fears will fade as central banks adopt more expansionary monetary policies to stimulate economies. This will likely lead Bitcoin to decouple from the DXY Index, setting the stage for a new all-time high in 2025.

随着时间的流逝，正如用户 @21_xbt所指出的那样，宏观经济的担忧会消失，因为中央银行采用了更多扩展的货币政策来刺激经济。这可能会导致比特币从DXY指数中解脱出来，从而为2025年的新历史最高高。