自3月2日以來，比特幣（BTC）價格下跌了12％，當時幾乎達到94,000美元

自3月2日以來，比特幣（BTC）下跌了12％，當時幾乎達到了94,000美元。有趣的是，在同一時期，美元削弱了一籃子外幣

Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped 12% since March 2, when it nearly reached $94,000. Interestingly, during the same period, the US dollar has weakened against a basket of foreign currencies, which is usually seen as a positive sign for scarce assets like BTC.

自3月2日以來，比特幣（BTC）下降了12％，當時它幾乎達到了94,000美元。有趣的是，在同一時期，美元對一籃子外幣削弱了，這通常被視為像BTC這樣的稀缺資產的積極信號。

Investors are now wondering why Bitcoin hasn't reacted positively to the declining DXY and what could be the next factor to trigger a decoupling from this trend.

投資者現在想知道為什麼比特幣對DXY下降的反應沒有積極反應，以及觸發與這一趨勢脫鉤的下一個因素。

Up to mid-2024, the US Dollar Index (DXY, left) had an inverse relationship with Bitcoin’s price, meaning the cryptocurrency often rose when the dollar weakened. During that time, Bitcoin was widely seen as a hedge against inflation, thanks to its lack of correlation with the stock market and its fixed monetary policy, similar to digital gold.

直到2024年中期，美元指數（DXY，左）與比特幣的價格有著反比的關係，這意味著當美元削弱時，加密貨幣經常上升。在此期間，由於與股票市場和固定貨幣政策的相關性，比特幣被廣泛視為抵抗通貨膨脹的對沖，類似於數字黃金。

However, correlation does not imply causation, and the past eight months have shown that the rationale for investing in Bitcoin evolves over time. For instance, some analysts claim that Bitcoin’s price aligns with global monetary supply as central banks adjust economic policies, while others emphasize its role as uncensorable money, enabling free transactions for governments and individuals alike.

但是，相關性並不意味著因果關係，過去八個月表明，投資比特幣隨著時間的推移而發展的理由。例如，一些分析師聲稱，隨著中央銀行調整經濟政策，比特幣的價格與全球貨幣供應一致，而其他分析師則強調其作用是無可抑制的貨幣，為政府和個人提供了免費的交易。

Bitcoin gains from DXY weakness can take months or years to materialize

DXY弱點的比特幣收益可能需要數月或數年才能實現

Julien Bittel, the head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, noted that the recent drop in the US Dollar Index—from 107.6 on Feb. 28 to 103.60 on March 7—has occurred only three times in the past twelve years.

全球宏觀投資者宏觀研究負責人朱利安·比特爾（Julien Bittel）指出，最近的美元指數下降了，從2月28日至103.60 3月7日起，在過去的十二年中僅發生了三次。

Source: BittelJulien

資料來源：小聖誕節

Bittel’s post on X highlights that Bitcoin’s price surged after the last significant drop in the DXY Index in November 2022, as well as following the March 2020 event, when the US dollar fell from 99.5 to 95 during the early weeks of the COVID-19 crisis. His analysis emphasizes that “financial conditions lead risk assets by a couple of months. Right now, financial conditions are easing – and fast.”

Bittel在X上發表的帖子突出顯示，比特幣的價格在2022年11月的DXY指數上次大幅下降之後，以及2020年3月的活動之後，當時美元從99.5下降到95次，在Covid-19危機的早期。他的分析強調，“財務狀況將風險資產降低了幾個月。目前，財務狀況正在緩解 - 快速。”

While Bittel’s comments are highly bullish for Bitcoin’s price, the positive effects of past US dollar weakness took more than six months to materialize and, in some cases, even a couple of years, such as during the 2016-17 cycle. The current underperformance of Bitcoin may be due to “short-term macro fears,” according to user @21_XBT.

儘管Bittel的評論對比特幣的價格高度看漲，但過去美元弱點的積極影響花費了超過六個月的時間才能實現，在某些情況下，甚至幾年，例如在2016-17週期期間。根據用戶 @21_xbt的說法，比特幣當前的表現不佳可能是由於“短期宏觀恐懼”所致。

The analyst briefly lists several reasons for Bitcoin’s recent price weakness, including “Tariffs, Doge, Yen carry trade, yields, DXY, growth scares,” but concludes that none of these factors alter Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals, suggesting its price will eventually benefit.

該分析師簡要列出了比特幣最近的價格弱點的幾個原因，包括“關稅，門檻，日元攜帶貿易，收益率，DXY，增長恐懼”，但得出結論，這些因素都沒有改變比特幣的長期基本原理，這表明其價格最終將受益。

For example, cuts by the US Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) are highly positive for the economy in the medium term, as they reduce overall debt and interest payments, freeing up resources for productivity-boosting measures. Similarly, tariffs could prove beneficial if the Trump administration achieves a more favorable trade balance by increasing US exports, as this could pave the way for sustainable economic growth.

例如，美國政府效率部（DOGE）的削減在中期對經濟的高度積極，因為它們減少了總體債務和利息，從而釋放了提高生產力措施的資源。同樣，如果特朗普政府通過增加美國出口來實現更有利的貿易平衡，關稅可能會證明是有益的，因為這可能為可持續的經濟增長鋪平道路。

Related: Crypto market’s biggest risks in 2025: US recession, circular crypto economy

相關：加密貨幣市場在2025年的最大風險：美國衰退，循環加密經濟

The measures taken by the US government have trimmed excessive but unsustainable growth, causing short-term pain while lowering yields on US Treasury notes, making it cheaper to refinance debt. However, there is no indication that the US dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency is weakening, nor is there reduced demand for US Treasurys. As a result, the recent decline in the DXY Index does not directly correlate with Bitcoin’s appeal.

美國政府採取的措施削減了過度但不可持續的增長，造成了短期疼痛，同時降低了美國財政部票據的收益率，從而使再融資債務更便宜。 However, there is no indication that the US dollar's role as the world's reserve currency is weakening, nor is there reduced demand for US Treasurys.結果，最近的DXY指數下降與比特幣的吸引力沒有直接相關。

Over time, as user @21_XBT noted, macroeconomic fears will fade as central banks adopt more expansionary monetary policies to stimulate economies. This will likely lead Bitcoin to decouple from the DXY Index, setting the stage for a new all-time high in 2025.

隨著時間的流逝，正如用戶 @21_xbt所指出的那樣，宏觀經濟的擔憂會消失，因為中央銀行採用了更多擴展的貨幣政策來刺激經濟。這可能會導致比特幣從DXY指數中解脫出來，從而為2025年的新歷史最高高。