比特币（BTC）价格进入2025年3月的最后一个整个业务周

比特币进入2025年3月的最后一个整个业务周，交易员和分析师密切关注经济数据如何发布

Bitcoin is entering the last full business week of March 2025 with traders closely watching how economic data releases like the US Personal Consumption Expenditures and policy developments will affect the crypto market.

比特币将进入2025年3月的最后一个整个业务周，交易员密切关注经济数据如何发行，例如美国个人消费支出和政策发展将影响加密市场。

The largest crypto by market cap has surged past $87,000 but market participants are divided on its next move.

按市值计算的最大加密货币已经飙升了87,000美元，但市场参与者的下一步行动却有分歧。

According to data from Coingecko, in the trading hours leading up to Monday’s US market, Bitcoin was trading at $87,500, an uptick of 3.4% in the last 24 hours and a weekly gain of 5.3%.

根据Coingecko的数据，在周一美国市场之前的交易小时内，比特币的交易价格为87,500美元，在过去24小时内上涨了3.4％，每周增长5.3％。

Some analysts still see a downward price correction in the coming days to levels below $80,000 but others, like BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, predict the coin will draw a path beyond its all-time high value and reach $110,000.

一些分析师在未来几天仍然看到低于80,000美元的水平校正，但其他分析师（例如Bitmex联合创始人Arthur Hayes）预测，该硬币将为其历史上的高价值而超过其110,000美元。

“My analysis is flashing a warning, correction is still underway, and a dip could be coming,” posted crypto trading expert IamCryptoWolf on X.

“我的分析正在闪烁警告，更正仍在进行中，并且可能会降低。” Crypto Trading Expert Iamcryptowolf on X上发表。

Bitcoin’s short-term holder losses

比特币的短期持有人损失

Bitcoin continues to trade within a consolidating wedge structure, with a harmonic pattern emerging on the four-hour charts. A potential third drive in the 3-Drive harmonic pattern is expected to complete near the 100% Fibonacci extension, which places Bitcoin’s price target in the $89,000–$91,000 range.

比特币继续在合并的楔形结构内进行交易，在四小时的图表上出现了谐波模式。预计3驱动器谐波模式中的第三次驱动器预计将在100％的斐波那契扩展程序附近完成，该扩展名将比特币的目标目标置于89,000美元至91,000美元的范围内。

Traders selling around this level are considered to be in a strong position, while the setup would be invalidated if Bitcoin rose above the $95,000–$96,000 zone.

卖出此水平的交易者被认为处于强大的位置，而如果比特币上升到95,000美元至96,000美元的区域，则设置将无效。

The market’s volatile movements are pushing the hand of short-term Bitcoin holders to take more selling positions. Data from Glassnode shows unrealized losses mounting, with many short-term holder coins now underwater.

市场的动荡运动正在推动短期比特币持有人的手，以占据更多的销售职位。来自玻璃节的数据显示未实现的损失安装，现在有许多短期持有人硬币在水下。

The group’s rolling 30-day realized loss has reached $7 billion, which is the largest sustained loss event of this cycle.

该集团的30天滚动损失已达到70亿美元，这是该周期中最大的持续损失事件。

Yet, the figure is significantly lower than losses exceeding $19 billion during previous capitulation events in 2021–2022.

然而，在2021 - 2022年以前的投降事件中，该数字显着低于超过190亿美元的损失。

BitMEX Arthur Hayes sees Bitcoin clocking new highs

Bitmex Arthur Hayes看到比特币在新高点

As reported by Cryptopolitan, in January, former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes said that he expects Bitcoin to either retest $76,500 or reach $110,000.

正如Cryptopolitan报道的那样，一月份，Bitmex首席执行官Arthur Hayes表示，他预计比特币将重新续订76,500美元或达到110,000美元。

According to Hayes, his analysis favors the possibility of the cryptocurrency testing the $110,000 mark before retesting $76,500.

根据海耶斯的说法，他的分析有利于加密货币在重新测试76,500美元之前测试110,000美元的可能性。

He attributed this expectation to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies, stating that the shift from quantitative tightening (QT) to quantitative easing (QE) for treasuries would fuel further price increases.

他将这一期望归因于美联储的货币政策，并指出，从定量拧紧（QT）到国债的定量宽松（QE）的转变将推动进一步的价格上涨。

“The price is more likely to hit $110k than $76.5k next. If we hit $110k, then it’s yachtzee time, and we ain’t looking back until $250k,” part of his statement reads.

他的声明中的一部分写道：“价格更可能比下一美元达到76.5k美元的价格。如果我们达到11万美元，那是Yachtzee的时间，直到25万美元，我们才回头。”

PCE data could sway market sentiment

PCE数据可能会影响市场情绪

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, is set for release on March 28. Last month’s PCE reading came in below expectations, and analysts expect a similar outcome for February’s data.

美联储的首选通货膨胀量表，即个人消费支出（PCE）指数，将于3月28日发布。上个月的PCE阅读量低于预期，分析师预计2月份的数据有类似的结果。

The Federal Reserve’s own projections show that both the headline and core inflation metrics could fall below 3% by the end of March.

美联储自己的预测表明，到3月底，标题和核心通货膨胀指标都可能低于3％。

Markets will be focusing on shifts in the Fed’s monetary policy, with traders looking ahead to the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in May.

市场将重点关注美联储货币政策的转变，贸易商将在5月份参加下一个联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议。

CME Group’s FedWatch Tool currently shows an 11.6% change in expectations for interest rate cuts in the first half of 2025, and investors could be waiting for more signs on what is next before making any definitive selling or buying moves.

CME Group的FedWatch工具目前显示出在2025年上半年对降低利率的期望变化11.6％，投资者可能会在进行任何确定的销售或购买动作之前等待下一步的更多迹象。

Trump tariffs could lead to inflation

特朗普关税可能导致通货膨胀

The US government’s reciprocal tariff arrangement, signed off by President Trump, is set to go into effect on April 2. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged last week that tariffs are contributing to rising inflation expectations.

由特朗普总统签署的美国政府的互惠关税安排将于4月2日生效。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）上周承认，关税正在促进通货膨胀期望的上升。

“I think we were getting closer and closer to price stability,” Powell said last Wednesday. “I wouldn’t say we were at that. I do think with the arrival of the tariff inflation, further progress may be delayed.”

鲍威尔上周三表示：“我认为我们越来越接近价格稳定性。” “我不会说我们是这样的。我认为随着关税通货膨胀的到来，进一步的进展可能会延迟。”

The introduction of new tariffs could dampen risk-on sentiment in financial markets, including Bitcoin and equities. Stocks are showing signs of meager recovery after a four-week losing streak but the broader economic landscape is still highly volatile, and further fluctuations seem inevitable ahead of the quarterly close.

引入新的关税可能会在包括比特币和股票在内的金融市场中衰减风险的情绪。在经历了为期四周的连胜纪录之后，股票表现出微薄的恢复迹象，但更广泛的经济景观仍然是高度波动的，在季度结束之前，进一步的波动似乎不可避免。

On-chain data signals market confidence

链上数据信号市场信心

On-chain data analytics platform CryptoQuant reported that total ERC-20 stablecoin reserves on exchanges reached a record high of $31.

链上数据分析平台CryptoQuant报道说，交易所的ERC-20 Stablecoin储量达到创纪录的31美元。