比特幣（BTC）價格進入2025年3月的最後一個整個業務週

比特幣進入2025年3月的最後一個整個業務週，交易員和分析師密切關注經濟數據如何發布

Bitcoin is entering the last full business week of March 2025 with traders closely watching how economic data releases like the US Personal Consumption Expenditures and policy developments will affect the crypto market.

比特幣將進入2025年3月的最後一個整個業務週，交易員密切關注經濟數據如何發行，例如美國個人消費支出和政策發展將影響加密市場。

The largest crypto by market cap has surged past $87,000 but market participants are divided on its next move.

按市值計算的最大加密貨幣已經飆升了87,000美元，但市場參與者的下一步行動卻有分歧。

According to data from Coingecko, in the trading hours leading up to Monday’s US market, Bitcoin was trading at $87,500, an uptick of 3.4% in the last 24 hours and a weekly gain of 5.3%.

根據Coingecko的數據，在周一美國市場之前的交易小時內，比特幣的交易價格為87,500美元，在過去24小時內上漲了3.4％，每週增長5.3％。

Some analysts still see a downward price correction in the coming days to levels below $80,000 but others, like BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, predict the coin will draw a path beyond its all-time high value and reach $110,000.

一些分析師在未來幾天仍然看到低於80,000美元的水平校正，但其他分析師（例如Bitmex聯合創始人Arthur Hayes）預測，該硬幣將為其歷史上的高價值而超過其110,000美元。

“My analysis is flashing a warning, correction is still underway, and a dip could be coming,” posted crypto trading expert IamCryptoWolf on X.

“我的分析正在閃爍警告，更正仍在進行中，並且可能會降低。” Crypto Trading Expert Iamcryptowolf on X上發表。

Bitcoin’s short-term holder losses

比特幣的短期持有人損失

Bitcoin continues to trade within a consolidating wedge structure, with a harmonic pattern emerging on the four-hour charts. A potential third drive in the 3-Drive harmonic pattern is expected to complete near the 100% Fibonacci extension, which places Bitcoin’s price target in the $89,000–$91,000 range.

比特幣繼續在合併的楔形結構內進行交易，在四小時的圖表上出現了諧波模式。預計3驅動器諧波模式中的第三次驅動器預計將在100％的斐波那契擴展程序附近完成，該擴展名將比特幣的目標目標置於89,000美元至91,000美元的範圍內。

Traders selling around this level are considered to be in a strong position, while the setup would be invalidated if Bitcoin rose above the $95,000–$96,000 zone.

賣出此水平的交易者被認為處於強大的位置，而如果比特幣上升到95,000美元至96,000美元的區域，則設置將無效。

The market’s volatile movements are pushing the hand of short-term Bitcoin holders to take more selling positions. Data from Glassnode shows unrealized losses mounting, with many short-term holder coins now underwater.

市場的動盪運動正在推動短期比特幣持有人的手，以佔據更多的銷售職位。來自玻璃節的數據顯示未實現的損失安裝，現在有許多短期持有人硬幣在水下。

The group’s rolling 30-day realized loss has reached $7 billion, which is the largest sustained loss event of this cycle.

該集團的30天滾動損失已達到70億美元，這是該週期中最大的持續損失事件。

Yet, the figure is significantly lower than losses exceeding $19 billion during previous capitulation events in 2021–2022.

然而，在2021 - 2022年以前的投降事件中，該數字顯著低於超過190億美元的損失。

BitMEX Arthur Hayes sees Bitcoin clocking new highs

Bitmex Arthur Hayes看到比特幣在新高點

As reported by Cryptopolitan, in January, former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes said that he expects Bitcoin to either retest $76,500 or reach $110,000.

正如Cryptopolitan報導的那樣，一月份，Bitmex首席執行官Arthur Hayes表示，他預計比特幣將重新續訂76,500美元或達到110,000美元。

According to Hayes, his analysis favors the possibility of the cryptocurrency testing the $110,000 mark before retesting $76,500.

根據海耶斯的說法，他的分析有利於加密貨幣在重新測試76,500美元之前測試110,000美元的可能性。

He attributed this expectation to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies, stating that the shift from quantitative tightening (QT) to quantitative easing (QE) for treasuries would fuel further price increases.

他將這一期望歸因於美聯儲的貨幣政策，並指出，從定量擰緊（QT）到國債的定量寬鬆（QE）的轉變將推動進一步的價格上漲。

“The price is more likely to hit $110k than $76.5k next. If we hit $110k, then it’s yachtzee time, and we ain’t looking back until $250k,” part of his statement reads.

他的聲明中的一部分寫道：“價格更可能比下一美元達到76.5k美元的價格。如果我們達到11萬美元，那是Yachtzee的時間，直到25萬美元，我們才回頭。”

PCE data could sway market sentiment

PCE數據可能會影響市場情緒

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, is set for release on March 28. Last month’s PCE reading came in below expectations, and analysts expect a similar outcome for February’s data.

美聯儲的首選通貨膨脹量表，即個人消費支出（PCE）指數，將於3月28日發布。上個月的PCE閱讀量低於預期，分析師預計2月份的數據有類似的結果。

The Federal Reserve’s own projections show that both the headline and core inflation metrics could fall below 3% by the end of March.

美聯儲自己的預測表明，到3月底，標題和核心通貨膨脹指標都可能低於3％。

Markets will be focusing on shifts in the Fed’s monetary policy, with traders looking ahead to the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in May.

市場將重點關注美聯儲貨幣政策的轉變，貿易商將在5月份參加下一個聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）會議。

CME Group’s FedWatch Tool currently shows an 11.6% change in expectations for interest rate cuts in the first half of 2025, and investors could be waiting for more signs on what is next before making any definitive selling or buying moves.

CME Group的FedWatch工具目前顯示出在2025年上半年對降低利率的期望變化11.6％，投資者可能會在進行任何確定的銷售或購買動作之前等待下一步的更多跡象。

Trump tariffs could lead to inflation

特朗普關稅可能導致通貨膨脹

The US government’s reciprocal tariff arrangement, signed off by President Trump, is set to go into effect on April 2. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged last week that tariffs are contributing to rising inflation expectations.

由特朗普總統簽署的美國政府的互惠關稅安排將於4月2日生效。美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）上周承認，關稅正在促進通貨膨脹期望的上升。

“I think we were getting closer and closer to price stability,” Powell said last Wednesday. “I wouldn’t say we were at that. I do think with the arrival of the tariff inflation, further progress may be delayed.”

鮑威爾上週三表示：“我認為我們越來越接近價格穩定性。” “我不會說我們是這樣的。我認為隨著關稅通貨膨脹的到來，進一步的進展可能會延遲。”

The introduction of new tariffs could dampen risk-on sentiment in financial markets, including Bitcoin and equities. Stocks are showing signs of meager recovery after a four-week losing streak but the broader economic landscape is still highly volatile, and further fluctuations seem inevitable ahead of the quarterly close.

引入新的關稅可能會在包括比特幣和股票在內的金融市場中衰減風險的情緒。在經歷了為期四周的連勝紀錄之後，股票表現出微薄的恢復跡象，但更廣泛的經濟景觀仍然是高度波動的，在季度結束之前，進一步的波動似乎不可避免。

On-chain data signals market confidence

鏈上數據信號市場信心

On-chain data analytics platform CryptoQuant reported that total ERC-20 stablecoin reserves on exchanges reached a record high of $31.

鏈上數據分析平台CryptoQuant報導說，交易所的ERC-20 Stablecoin儲量達到創紀錄的31美元。