比特币ETF正在行走

就像两个悬崖之间摇摆的绳索助行器一样，比特币ETF唤起了人们的希望和寒意。

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are navigating a critical turbulence zone, highlighted by CryptoQuant.

比特币交易所贸易资金（ETF）正在驾驶一个关键的湍流区域，以加密量为突出。

As the timid recovery of positive flows in recent weeks gives the market a semblance of breath, deeper dives reveal a darker reality.

随着最近几周积极流动的胆怯的恢复使市场的呼吸表现出来，更深的潜水揭示了更黑暗的现实。

Bitcoin ETFs: A Precarious Balance

比特币ETF：不稳定的平衡

Since their launch, Bitcoin ETFs have embodied a revolution for institutional adoption. But is this a prelude to a fall?

自发射以来，比特币ETF体现了一场革命，以供机构采用。但这是秋天的前奏吗？

The first chart from CryptoQuant showcases a 12% drop from the historic high (ATH) early in 2025, highlighting nearly $5 billion evaporated. A painful decline contrasts with the euphoria of the preceding months, marked by aggressive accumulation of bitcoin. Investors, once conquerors, now seem hesitant to nourish the giant.

CryptoQuant的第一张图表在2025年初的历史高（ATH）下降了12％，突出了将近50亿美元的蒸发量。痛苦的下降与前几个月的欣快感形成鲜明对比，以比特币的积极积累。投资者曾经曾经征服，现在似乎不愿滋养巨人。

The second chart drives the point home: while 2024 propelled net inflows to $30 billion, 2025 starts in troubled waters. These flows have reversed, plunging into negative territory. A turnaround unveils the upheavals as traditional markets face persistent inflation or capricious interest rates. Institutions, caught between the desire for yield and risk aversion, are now playing for time.

第二张图表驱动了重点：而2024年将净流入促进了300亿美元，而2025年则在陷入困境的水域开始。这些流逆转了，陷入了负面的领域。随着传统市场面临持续的通货膨胀或反复无常的利率，周转揭示了动荡。在对产量和风险避免风险的渴望之间的机构现在正在播放时间。

Finally, the third chart offers an ambiguous glimmer: daily flows of Bitcoin ETFs are stabilizing, but in a fragile balance. As seen, supply and demand remain lethargic, hanging by a thread. “It’s the calm before the storm or the saving lull,” summarizes an analyst. In this context, every capital movement takes on the appearance of a roll of the dice.

最后，第三张图表提供了模棱两可的微光：比特币ETF的每日流量正在稳定，但平衡处于脆弱的平衡状态。如所见，供求仍然昏昏欲睡，挂在线程上。一位分析师总结说：“这是暴风雨前的平静或节省的平静。”在这种情况下，每个资本运动都呈现出一卷骰子的外观。

Bitcoin ETF Holders Still ProfitableDespite these massive withdrawals, one detail intrigues: Bitcoin ETF holders remain predominantly profitable. The average breakeven price of $72,546 contrasts with the current $87,000 price of bitcoin, providing a latent margin of 17%.

除了这些大规模提款，比特币ETF持有人仍然会盈利，但一个细节吸引人：比特币ETF持有人仍然主要是有利可图的。 72,546美元的平均盈亏平均价格与当前87,000美元的比特币价格形成鲜明对比，可潜在利润率为17％。

A paradoxical situation: even in the event of panicked sales, most investors would come out winners. However, this profitability could also fuel an illusion of security, masking the market’s vulnerability.

一种自相矛盾的情况：即使是惊慌的销售，大多数投资者也会赢得赢家。但是，这种盈利能力也可以推动安全的幻想，从而掩盖了市场的脆弱性。

The recent inflows of $800 million in eight days, however, shake up the forecasts. A resurgence that raises questions: is it a return of confidence or a final gasp before a retreat? Bitcoin, on its part, is struggling to gain a measly 2.4% over a week, moving within a narrow corridor. Like a sleeping volcano, its latent energy could explode… or extinguish.

然而，最近八天内流入了8亿美元的流入，使预测变得更加动摇。提出问题的复兴是：这是信心的回报还是撤退之前的最终喘息？就比特币而言，比特币正在努力在一周内赚取2.4％的努力，在狭窄的走廊内移动。就像睡火山一样，它的潜能可能会爆炸……或扑灭。

Still, there is the macroeconomic variable, a sword of Damocles hanging over the ETFs. Amid geopolitical tensions and monetary uncertainties, institutional investors adjust their positions in real-time. Flows, now more responsive than ever, reflect this dance with the unpredictable.

尽管如此，仍然有宏观经济变量，一把Damocles悬挂在ETF上。在地缘政治紧张局势和货币不确定性的情况下，机构投资者实时调整了自己的立场。流动，现在比以往任何时候都更加敏感，反映了这种不可预测的舞蹈。

Bitcoin ETFs today embody the paradox of a market that is both resilient and fragile. Their recent stabilization is neither a guarantee of sustainability nor a harbinger of chaos. Like a seismograph, it records the tremors of a transforming financial world.

如今，比特币ETF体现了既具有弹性又脆弱的市场的悖论。他们最近的稳定既不是可持续性的保证，也不是混乱的预兆。像地震仪一样，它记录了一个不断变化的金融世界的震颤。

The question is not whether a crash will occur, but how the market will digest these convulsions. Between fear and opportunity, bitcoin remains, more than ever, a mirror of our collective uncertainties. To be continued with a critical eye… and an agile portfolio.

问题不是是否会发生崩溃，而是市场将如何消化这些抽搐。在恐惧和机会之间，比特币比以往任何时候都更加镜子，这是我们集体不确定性的镜子。要继续保持批判性……和敏捷的投资组合。