比特幣ETF正在行走

就像兩個懸崖之間搖擺的繩索助行器一樣，比特幣ETF喚起了人們的希望和寒意。

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are navigating a critical turbulence zone, highlighted by CryptoQuant.

比特幣交易所貿易資金（ETF）正在駕駛一個關鍵的湍流區域，以加密量為突出。

As the timid recovery of positive flows in recent weeks gives the market a semblance of breath, deeper dives reveal a darker reality.

隨著最近幾周積極流動的膽怯的恢復使市場的呼吸表現出來，更深的潛水揭示了更黑暗的現實。

Bitcoin ETFs: A Precarious Balance

比特幣ETF：不穩定的平衡

Since their launch, Bitcoin ETFs have embodied a revolution for institutional adoption. But is this a prelude to a fall?

自發射以來，比特幣ETF體現了一場革命，以供機構採用。但這是秋天的前奏嗎？

The first chart from CryptoQuant showcases a 12% drop from the historic high (ATH) early in 2025, highlighting nearly $5 billion evaporated. A painful decline contrasts with the euphoria of the preceding months, marked by aggressive accumulation of bitcoin. Investors, once conquerors, now seem hesitant to nourish the giant.

CryptoQuant的第一張圖表在2025年初的歷史高（ATH）下降了12％，突出了將近50億美元的蒸發量。痛苦的下降與前幾個月的欣快感形成鮮明對比，以比特幣的積極積累。投資者曾經曾經征服，現在似乎不願滋養巨人。

The second chart drives the point home: while 2024 propelled net inflows to $30 billion, 2025 starts in troubled waters. These flows have reversed, plunging into negative territory. A turnaround unveils the upheavals as traditional markets face persistent inflation or capricious interest rates. Institutions, caught between the desire for yield and risk aversion, are now playing for time.

第二張圖表驅動了重點：而2024年將淨流入促進了300億美元，而2025年則在陷入困境的水域開始。這些流逆轉了，陷入了負面的領域。隨著傳統市場面臨持續的通貨膨脹或反复無常的利率，周轉揭示了動盪。在對產量和風險避免風險的渴望之間的機構現在正在播放時間。

Finally, the third chart offers an ambiguous glimmer: daily flows of Bitcoin ETFs are stabilizing, but in a fragile balance. As seen, supply and demand remain lethargic, hanging by a thread. “It’s the calm before the storm or the saving lull,” summarizes an analyst. In this context, every capital movement takes on the appearance of a roll of the dice.

最後，第三張圖表提供了模棱兩可的微光：比特幣ETF的每日流量正在穩定，但平衡處於脆弱的平衡狀態。如所見，供求仍然昏昏欲睡，掛在線程上。一位分析師總結說：“這是暴風雨前的平靜或節省的平靜。”在這種情況下，每個資本運動都呈現出一卷骰子的外觀。

Bitcoin ETF Holders Still ProfitableDespite these massive withdrawals, one detail intrigues: Bitcoin ETF holders remain predominantly profitable. The average breakeven price of $72,546 contrasts with the current $87,000 price of bitcoin, providing a latent margin of 17%.

除了這些大規模提款，比特幣ETF持有人仍然會盈利，但一個細節吸引人：比特幣ETF持有人仍然主要是有利可圖的。 72,546美元的平均盈虧平均價格與當前87,000美元的比特幣價格形成鮮明對比，可潛在利潤率為17％。

A paradoxical situation: even in the event of panicked sales, most investors would come out winners. However, this profitability could also fuel an illusion of security, masking the market’s vulnerability.

一種自相矛盾的情況：即使是驚慌的銷售，大多數投資者也會贏得贏家。但是，這種盈利能力也可以推動安全的幻想，從而掩蓋了市場的脆弱性。

The recent inflows of $800 million in eight days, however, shake up the forecasts. A resurgence that raises questions: is it a return of confidence or a final gasp before a retreat? Bitcoin, on its part, is struggling to gain a measly 2.4% over a week, moving within a narrow corridor. Like a sleeping volcano, its latent energy could explode… or extinguish.

然而，最近八天內流入了8億美元的流入，使預測變得更加動搖。提出問題的複興是：這是信心的回報還是撤退之前的最終喘息？就比特幣而言，比特幣正在努力在一周內賺取2.4％的努力，在狹窄的走廊內移動。就像睡火山一樣，它的潛能可能會爆炸……或撲滅。

Still, there is the macroeconomic variable, a sword of Damocles hanging over the ETFs. Amid geopolitical tensions and monetary uncertainties, institutional investors adjust their positions in real-time. Flows, now more responsive than ever, reflect this dance with the unpredictable.

儘管如此，仍然有宏觀經濟變量，一把Damocles懸掛在ETF上。在地緣政治緊張局勢和貨幣不確定性的情況下，機構投資者實時調整了自己的立場。流動，現在比以往任何時候都更加敏感，反映了這種不可預測的舞蹈。

Bitcoin ETFs today embody the paradox of a market that is both resilient and fragile. Their recent stabilization is neither a guarantee of sustainability nor a harbinger of chaos. Like a seismograph, it records the tremors of a transforming financial world.

如今，比特幣ETF體現了既具有彈性又脆弱的市場的悖論。他們最近的穩定既不是可持續性的保證，也不是混亂的預兆。像地震儀一樣，它記錄了一個不斷變化的金融世界的震顫。

The question is not whether a crash will occur, but how the market will digest these convulsions. Between fear and opportunity, bitcoin remains, more than ever, a mirror of our collective uncertainties. To be continued with a critical eye… and an agile portfolio.

問題不是是否會發生崩潰，而是市場將如何消化這些抽搐。在恐懼和機會之間，比特幣比以往任何時候都更加鏡子，這是我們集體不確定性的鏡子。要繼續保持批判性……和敏捷的投資組合。