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比特币仍将从全球流动性趋势中受益,但首先出现的情况可能会让普通交易者感到震惊。
Bitcoin (BTC) price action could see a trip to lower levels before kicking off the next bull run, an analysis claims.
分析称,在下一轮牛市开始之前,比特币(BTC)的价格走势可能会跌至较低水平。
Breaking down the latest on-chain phenomena in his latest analysis on X, released Oct. 10, popular analyst Cole Garner said that he sees “capitulation incoming” for Bitcoin markets.
著名分析师科尔·加纳 (Cole Garner) 在 10 月 10 日发布的 X 最新分析中详细分析了最新的链上现象,他表示,他认为比特币市场将“投降”。
BTC price ‘range lows’ still up for grabs
比特币价格“区间低点”仍有待争夺
Despite the narrative, Bitcoin still stands to benefit from trends in global liquidity, but what comes first may surprise the average trader.
尽管有这样的说法,比特币仍然受益于全球流动性的趋势,但首先发生的事情可能会让普通交易者感到惊讶。
Investigating current onchain phenomena, Garner flagged liquidity declining in the short term, which could be reflected in BTC price performance.
加纳在调查当前的链上现象时指出,短期内流动性下降,这可能会反映在比特币的价格表现上。
“Liquidity on-chain is tightening: I smell capitulation incoming,” he summarized.
“链上的流动性正在收紧:我闻到了投降的味道,”他总结道。
An accompanying chart showed a print, among other things, of the Liquid Vision index, which measures global central bank liquidity.
随附的图表显示了 Liquid Vision 指数等内容,该指数衡量全球央行的流动性。
“Liquidity onchain starts at its source, the central banks. Liquid Vision is my lens. It’s primed for a buy signal,” Garner continued.
“链上流动性始于其源头,即央行。 Liquid Vision 是我的镜头。它已准备好发出买入信号,”加纳继续说道。
The post highlighted recent shifts in policy from both the China central bank and the United States Federal Reserve. The former unveiled a major round of economic stimulus last month, but disappointed risk-asset traders this week by delaying its continuation.
这篇文章强调了中国央行和美联储最近的政策转变。前者上个月公布了一轮重大经济刺激计划,但本周推迟实施,令风险资产交易员感到失望。
Garner also pointed to a declining supply of stablecoins, particularly the two largest U.S. dollar stablecoins by market cap, Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC).
加纳还指出,稳定币的供应量正在下降,特别是市值最大的两种美元稳定币 Tether (USDT) 和 USD Coin (USDC)。
“Range lows before $100K? Total facepalm,” he argued.
“10 万美元之前的区间低点?完全是捂脸,”他争辩道。
Nevertheless, those lows could come in at below $50,000, another chart showed.
然而,另一张图表显示,这些低点可能会低于 50,000 美元。
Bitcoin delays ‘Uptober’
比特币推迟“Uptober”
As reported by Cointelegraph, some market participants still expect BTCUSD to deliver a turnaround from its sideways price action before the end of October.
据 Cointelegraph 报道,一些市场参与者仍预计 BTCUSD 将在 10 月底之前扭转横盘价格走势。
One theory even suggests that China's stimulus rethink could trigger another round of capital inflows into crypto.
一种理论甚至表明,中国对刺激计划的重新思考可能会引发另一轮资本流入加密货币领域。
Zooming out, bullish BTC price predictions also remain in place. This week, veteran trader Peter Brandt said that he sees BTCUSD reaching $135,000 within the next year, if key support holds.
缩小范围来看,看涨的 BTC 价格预测也仍然存在。本周,资深交易员 Peter Brandt 表示,如果关键支撑位守住,他预计 BTCUSD 在明年内将达到 135,000 美元。
Bitcoin was trading close to $61,000 at the last check, down 4% month-to-date, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed.
Cointelegraph Markets Pro 和 TradingView 的数据显示,上次检查时,比特币交易价格接近 61,000 美元,本月迄今下跌 4%。
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.
本文仅供参考,不应被视为投资建议。
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