比特币（BTC）价格分析：“头肩顶”形态预示着潜在的回调，但鲸鱼和市场趋势表明乐观

特许市场技术员 Aksel Kibar 在 12 月 26 日分享了他的分析，强调了“头肩”形态，可能标志着比特币价格的大幅回调。

After a stellar rally that saw Bitcoin (BTC) briefly cross the $100,000 threshold, a chartered market technician has warned of a potential pullback in the cryptocurrency’s price.

在比特币 (BTC) 短暂突破 10 万美元大关的强劲反弹之后，一位特许市场技术人员警告称，加密货币的价格可能会出现回调。

Aksel Kibar, who shared his analysis on December 26, highlighted a “head and shoulders” pattern that could mark a significant correction in BTC’s bullish momentum.

Aksel Kibar 在 12 月 26 日分享了他的分析，强调了“头肩”形态，这可能标志着 BTC 看涨势头的重大调整。

“Breakout from the broadening chart pattern that completed on $BTCUSD… the pullback can take place with a possible short-term H&S top,” Kibar wrote on X, formerly Twitter. “If the pattern acts as a H&S top, the price target is at 80K. This can be the pullback to the broadening pattern that completed with a breakout above 73.7K.”

Kibar 在 X（前 Twitter）上写道：“从 BTCUSD 完成的拓宽图表形态中突破……回调可能会在短期 H&S 顶部出现。” “如果该形态充当 H&S 顶部，则价格目标为 80K。这可能是对突破 73.7K 后完成的拓宽形态的回调。”

Kibar’s technical analysis suggests that Bitcoin could test lower price ranges before finding stability, especially as the pattern unfolds on the daily chart.

Kibar 的技术分析表明，比特币在找到稳定之前可能会测试较低的价格范围，特别是当该模式在日线图上展开时。

Whales and market trends signal optimism

鲸鱼和市场趋势预示着乐观

Despite warnings of a potential correction, market data offers some hope for Bitcoin bulls. Analysis by Santiment shows a renewed interest from large investors, known as “whales,” in moving stablecoins to exchanges.

尽管存在潜在修正的警告，但市场数据为比特币多头带来了一些希望。 Santiment 的分析显示，被称为“鲸鱼”的大型投资者对将稳定币转移到交易所重新产生了兴趣。

“After the post-Christmas market-wide dip, crypto markets are seeing an encouraging trend of whales moving stablecoins to exchanges,” Santiment said in a December 27 analysis, adding that while such movements do not directly confirm immediate purchases, they do indicate optimism as the year ends.

Santiment 在 12 月 27 日的分析中表示：“在圣诞节后市场全面下跌之后​​，加密货币市场出现了令人鼓舞的趋势，鲸鱼将稳定币转移到交易所。”他补充说，虽然这种走势并不能直接证实立即购买，但它们确实表明了乐观情绪随着年底。

According to Santiment’s observations, stablecoin deposits dominated exchange activity, which the firm interpreted as a bullish sign that could bolster Bitcoin’s recovery.

根据 Santiment 的观察，稳定币存款主导了交易活动，该公司将其解读为可能促进比特币复苏的看涨信号。

Resistance at key levels

关键水平的阻力

Bitcoin has faced difficulties in sustaining momentum above the $100,000 level, encountering quick rejections at critical resistance points such as the 21-day simple moving average, which currently stands at around $99,425. This technical resistance has kept the cryptocurrency fluctuating between potential highs and bearish targets.

比特币在维持 100,000 美元以上的势头方面面临困难，在关键阻力点（例如 21 天简单移动平均线，目前约为 99,425 美元）遭遇快速拒绝。这种技术阻力使加密货币在潜在高点和看跌目标之间波动。

Market participants are also keeping an eye on short-term volatility, as evidenced by erroneous data on TradingView, which briefly showed Bitcoin’s market dominance at 0% during the post-Christmas sell-off.

市场参与者也在密切关注短期波动，TradingView 上的错误数据证明了这一点，该数据短暂显示比特币在圣诞节后抛售期间的市场主导地位为 0%。

Broader market context and ETF updates

更广泛的市场背景和 ETF 更新

The broader crypto market has shown resilience, with Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the U.S. recording a net inflow after several days of outflows exceeding $1.5 billion. This recovery, though modest, highlights continued investor interest despite the prevailing market uncertainty.

更广泛的加密市场表现出了韧性，美国的比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）在连续几天流出超过 15 亿美元后录得净流入。尽管市场普遍存在不确定性，但这种复苏虽然温和，但凸显了投资者的持续兴趣。

As Bitcoin approaches 2024, its price trajectory will be influenced by both technical patterns and macroeconomic trends. Whether the cryptocurrency revisits the $80,000 level or stages a strong rebound will likely depend on a combination of on-chain activity, whale behavior, and broader market sentiment.

随着比特币临近 2024 年，其价格轨迹将受到技术模式和宏观经济趋势的影响。加密货币是否会重回 80,000 美元的水平或出现强劲反弹，可能取决于链上活动、鲸鱼行为和更广泛的市场情绪的结合。