比特幣（BTC）價格分析：「頭肩頂」形態預示著潛在的回調，但鯨魚和市場趨勢顯示樂觀

特許市場技術員 Aksel Kibar 在 12 月 26 日分享了他的分析，強調了「頭肩」形態，可能標誌著比特幣價格的大幅回調。

After a stellar rally that saw Bitcoin (BTC) briefly cross the $100,000 threshold, a chartered market technician has warned of a potential pullback in the cryptocurrency’s price.

在比特幣 (BTC) 短暫突破 10 萬美元大關的強勁反彈之後，一位特許市場技術人員警告稱，加密貨幣的價格可能會出現回調。

Aksel Kibar, who shared his analysis on December 26, highlighted a “head and shoulders” pattern that could mark a significant correction in BTC’s bullish momentum.

Aksel Kibar 在 12 月 26 日分享了他的分析，強調了「頭肩」形態，這可能標誌著 BTC 看漲勢頭的重大調整。

“Breakout from the broadening chart pattern that completed on $BTCUSD… the pullback can take place with a possible short-term H&S top,” Kibar wrote on X, formerly Twitter. “If the pattern acts as a H&S top, the price target is at 80K. This can be the pullback to the broadening pattern that completed with a breakout above 73.7K.”

Kibar 在 X（前 Twitter）上寫道：“突破 BTCUSD 完成的拓寬圖表形態……回調可能會在短期 H&S 頂部出現。” 「如果該形態充當 H&S 頂部，則價格目標為 80K。這可能是對突破 73.7K 後完成的拓寬形態的回調。

Kibar’s technical analysis suggests that Bitcoin could test lower price ranges before finding stability, especially as the pattern unfolds on the daily chart.

Kibar 的技術分析表明，比特幣在找到穩定之前可能會測試較低的價格範圍，特別是當該模式在日線圖上展開時。

Whales and market trends signal optimism

鯨魚和市場趨勢預示著樂觀

Despite warnings of a potential correction, market data offers some hope for Bitcoin bulls. Analysis by Santiment shows a renewed interest from large investors, known as “whales,” in moving stablecoins to exchanges.

儘管有潛在修正的警告，但市場數據為比特幣多頭帶來了一些希望。 Santiment 的分析顯示，被稱為「鯨魚」的大型投資者對將穩定幣轉移到交易所重新產生了興趣。

“After the post-Christmas market-wide dip, crypto markets are seeing an encouraging trend of whales moving stablecoins to exchanges,” Santiment said in a December 27 analysis, adding that while such movements do not directly confirm immediate purchases, they do indicate optimism as the year ends.

Santiment 在12 月27 日的分析中表示：「在聖誕節後市場全面下跌之後，加密貨幣市場出現了令人鼓舞的趨勢，鯨魚將穩定幣轉移到交易所。」他補充說，雖然這種走勢並不能直接證實立即購買，但它們確實表明了樂觀情緒隨著年底。

According to Santiment’s observations, stablecoin deposits dominated exchange activity, which the firm interpreted as a bullish sign that could bolster Bitcoin’s recovery.

根據 Santiment 的觀察，穩定幣存款主導了交易活動，該公司將其解讀為可能促進比特幣復甦的看漲訊號。

Resistance at key levels

關鍵水平的阻力

Bitcoin has faced difficulties in sustaining momentum above the $100,000 level, encountering quick rejections at critical resistance points such as the 21-day simple moving average, which currently stands at around $99,425. This technical resistance has kept the cryptocurrency fluctuating between potential highs and bearish targets.

比特幣在維持 10 萬美元以上的勢頭方面面臨困難，在關鍵阻力點（例如 21 天簡單移動平均線，目前約為 99,425 美元）遭遇快速拒絕。這種技術阻力使加密貨幣在潛在高點和看跌目標之間波動。

Market participants are also keeping an eye on short-term volatility, as evidenced by erroneous data on TradingView, which briefly showed Bitcoin’s market dominance at 0% during the post-Christmas sell-off.

市場參與者也密切關注短期波動，TradingView 上的錯誤數據證明了這一點，該數據短暫顯示比特幣在聖誕節後拋售期間的市場主導地位為 0%。

Broader market context and ETF updates

更廣泛的市場背景和 ETF 更新

The broader crypto market has shown resilience, with Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the U.S. recording a net inflow after several days of outflows exceeding $1.5 billion. This recovery, though modest, highlights continued investor interest despite the prevailing market uncertainty.

更廣泛的加密市場表現出了韌性，美國的比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）在連續幾天流出超過 15 億美元後錄得淨流入。儘管市場普遍存在不確定性，但這種復甦雖然溫和，但凸顯了投資者的持續興趣。

As Bitcoin approaches 2024, its price trajectory will be influenced by both technical patterns and macroeconomic trends. Whether the cryptocurrency revisits the $80,000 level or stages a strong rebound will likely depend on a combination of on-chain activity, whale behavior, and broader market sentiment.

隨著比特幣接近 2024 年，其價格軌跡將受到技術模式和宏觀經濟趨勢的影響。加密貨幣是否會重回 80,000 美元的水平或出現強勁反彈，可能取決於鏈上活動、鯨魚行為和更廣泛的市場情緒的結合。