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在亚洲,这是一个冒险的一天,因为交易者希望北京对美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对中国和其他亚洲国家的互惠关税的回应。
President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday sweeping reciprocal tariffs on imports from 180 nations and an increment to the existing 20% tax on goods from China, in addition to raising the total levy to 54%, the highest for any nation.
唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)总统周三宣布,除了将总税率提高到54%,对任何国家的最高税率提高了总征税,对180个国家的进口和现有20%的商品税的进口税率增加。
However, the latest action will not affect Canada and Mexico, despite the fact that Trump previously threatened to impose a 25% tariff on all goods from the North American neighbors.
但是,尽管特朗普此前威胁要对北美邻国的所有商品征收25%的关税,但最新的行动不会影响加拿大和墨西哥。
Now, the ball is in China’s court as the nature of its retaliation could determine the market reaction.
现在,球在中国法院,因为其报复的性质可以决定市场反应。
“Everything now depends on China. If China devalues the Yuan in response to today's large, additional US tariffs, that sets off a global risk-off that hits EMs (Emerging Markets) first and then - if it persists - spills back to the US. China has so far kept a very low profile. That may now end,” Robin Brooks, managing director and chief economist at the International Institute of Finance, said on X, formerly known as Twitter.
“现在的一切都取决于中国。如果中国为了应对当今的大型美国关税而贬低人民币,这将首先开始打击EMS(新兴市场)的全球风险,然后 - 然后 - 如果它坚持下去 - 中国将回到美国。到目前为止,中国已经保持了很低的知名度。
Earlier on Thursday, Beijing urged the U.S. to lift tariffs and vowed to retaliate immediately.
周四早些时候,北京敦促美国提高关税,并发誓立即进行报复。
Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan dropped to a seven-week low of 7 RMB/USD alongside losses in the Asian equities and an impending ‘death cross’ on bitcoin (BTC).
同时,中国人民币在亚洲股票中的损失以及比特币(BTC)上即将来临的“死亡十字架”(BTC)下降至7 rmb/usd的7周低点。
Letting the yuan depreciate, which makes Chinese goods more attractive in international markets, is one way to counter Trump’s tariffs.
让人民币贬值使中国商品在国际市场上更具吸引力,这是应对特朗普关税的一种方式。
That said, it could spell trouble for carry (currency) trades and scare financial markets, as observed in 2015 and 2018. Besides, potential intervention by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to stall a rapid yuan decline can boost the dollar index, inadvertently weighing over risk assets, including stocks and cryptocurrencies.
话虽如此,正如2015年和2018年所观察到的那样,这可能会使(货币)交易和恐吓金融市场造成麻烦。此外,中国人民银行(PBOC)的潜在干预措施使快速的人民降低会迅速下降,可以提高美元指数,无意间过度地体重超过风险资产,包括股票和加密货币。
It’s no coincidence that Asian equities traded in the red at press time, with Japan’s Nikkei hitting an eight-month low. The U.S. stock futures fell over 2%, presenting a picture of risk-off mode.
亚洲股票在发稿时以红色交易并非偶然,日本的尼克基(Nikkei)达到了八个月的低点。美国股票期货下跌超过2%,呈现出风险模式的图片。
Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency by market value, traded at around $83,300, having dropped from $88,000 to $82,500 following Trump’s tariffs announcement, according to CoinDesk market data.
根据Coindesk Market Data的数据,比特币(BTC)是市场价值的主要加密货币,在特朗普的关税宣布之后,比特币(BTC)的交易价格约为83,300美元,从88,000美元降至82,500美元。
The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of the cryptocurrency’s spot price appears on track to cross below its 200-day SMA, confirming what is known as the “death cross” bearish technical pattern.
加密货币的现货价格为50天的简单移动平均线(SMA)出现在其200天SMA以下的正轨上,证实了所谓的“死亡十字架”看跌技术模式。
Usually, a 50-day SMA crossing a 200-day SMA is seen as a сигнал of a short-term rally or a long-term bear market. However, the crypto market has displayed a surprising resilience to selloffs over the past year.
通常,越过200天SMA的50天SMA被视为短期集会或长期熊市的照现象。但是,加密货币市场在过去一年中对抛售表现出了令人惊讶的弹性。
The 50-day SMA is currently at $83,700, while the 200-day SMA stands at $82,800. As BTC trades at $83,300, it is clear that the 50-day SMA will pass through the 200-day SMA later today or tomorrow.
50天的SMA目前为83,700美元,而200天的SMA为82,800美元。由于BTC的交易价格为83,300美元,很明显,50天的SMA将通过今天或明天的200天SMA。
This technical pattern is being observed amid heightened trade tensions between the U.S. and China, with both sides adding more tariffs on each other’s goods.
在美国和中国之间的贸易紧张局势加剧,双方对彼此的商品增加关税,这一技术模式正在观察到。
Earlier this week, Trump announced plans to impose a 34% tariff on goods imported from China in addition to the existing 20% tax, bringing the total levy to 54%, the highest for any nation.
本周早些时候,特朗普宣布,除现有20%的税收外,从中国进口的商品征收34%的税率,使总税率达到54%,这是任何国家的最高税款。
The latest action will not affect Canada and Mexico despite the fact that Trump previously threatened to impose a 25% tariff on all goods from the North American neighbors.
尽管特朗普此前威胁要对北美邻国的所有商品征收25%的关税,但最新的行动不会影响加拿大和墨西哥。
According to reports, Trump is also planning to announce a new round of tariffs on goods from the European Union, which could further escalate the trade war.
据报道,特朗普还计划宣布对欧盟商品的新一轮关税,这可能会进一步升级贸易战。
The U.S. president has been a vocal critic of China's trade practices, which he claims are unfair to American workers and businesses. He has set out to renegotiate or withdraw the U.S. from several trade deals that he deems unfavorable to the nation.
美国总统一直是中国贸易惯例的声音批评家,他声称这对美国工人和企业不公平。他已经着手重新谈判或从他认为对国家不利的几项贸易协议中撤出。
In addition to the broad-based tariffs, Trump has also announced plans to impose tariffs on specific products, such as solar panels and washing machines.
除了基于广泛的关税外,特朗普还宣布了对特定产品(例如太阳能电池板和洗衣机)征收关税的计划。
These actions have been met with criticism from economists, who say that they will ultimately harm consumers and the global economy.
这些行动已受到经济学家的批评,他们说他们最终会损害消费者和全球经济。
However, Trump remains committed to his agenda of using tariffs to balance the trade deficit and create jobs in the U.S.
但是,特朗普仍然致力于使用关税来平衡贸易赤字并在美国创造就业机会的议程
It remains to be seen what impact these tariffs will have on the markets. However, they are likely to increase volatility and put pressure on equities and cryptocurrencies.
这些关税将对市场产生什么影响还有待观察。但是,它们可能会增加波动性,并向股票和加密货币施加压力。
As Paymon Mohsin , crypto derivatives researcher at Amberdata, Inc., told CoinDesk in an email: “Volatility is still low out to June but there is a clear preference for puts (bearish) over calls (bullish) in
正如Amberdata,Inc。的加密衍生品研究人员Paymon Mohsin所说的那样,在一封电子邮件中告诉Coindesk:“波动性仍然很低,直到6月,但对Puts(看跌)而不是呼叫(Bullish)的偏爱(看跌)
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