比特币 (BTC) 价格分析：尽管存在美联储加息风险，但多头仍将目光瞄准 12 万美元，BTC/美元技术分析

自选举日以来，随着特朗普获胜后加密货币的看涨势头爆发，比特币 (BTC) 目前已上涨超过 50%。

Fundamental Overview

基本概况

Bitcoin is up more than 50% since the election day, thanks to the bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency following Trump’s victory. This is to be expected, given that Trump vowed to make the US the crypto capital of the planet.

由于特朗普获胜后加密货币的看涨势头，比特币自选举日以来已上涨超过 50%。鉴于特朗普发誓要使美国成为地球的加密货币之都，这是可以预料的。

Another bullish driver is the US economy which not only performed well but started to re-accelerate amid the Fed’s easing and the expectations of expansionary fiscal policies like tax cuts and deregulation.

另一个看涨动力是美国经济，在美联储的宽松政策以及减税和放松管制等扩张性财政政策的预期下，美国经济不仅表现良好，而且开始重新加速。

For now, there’s no real top in sight as we would likely need a contractionary monetary policy or a notable slowdown in the economy, so buying the dips remains the favourite strategy. The risk in 2025 will be inflation and the Fed. If the central bank even slightly mentions the need for some tightening, then we could see some big corrections in all risk assets.

目前看不到真正的顶部，因为我们可能需要紧缩的货币政策或经济显着放缓，因此逢低买入仍然是最喜欢的策略。 2025 年的风险将是通胀和美联储。如果央行稍微提到一些紧缩的必要性，那么我们可能会看到所有风险资产都会出现大幅调整。

The Fed today is expected to cut by 25 bps bringing the FFR to 4.25-4.50%. We will also get the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) where growth and inflation should be revised upwards, and the Dot Plot will likely show two rate cuts in 2025. Fed Chair Powell should acknowledge the strength in the US data and announce a slowdown in the pace of easing.

预计美联储今天将降息 25 个基点，将 FFR 降至 4.25-4.50%。我们还将获得更新的经济预测摘要 (SEP)，其中增长和通胀应上调，点图可能会显示 2025 年两次降息。美联储主席鲍威尔应承认美国数据强劲并宣布放缓在宽松的步伐中。

This is already priced in as the market expects just two rate cuts in 2025, with the first one coming in March at the earliest. Therefore, the market reaction will be driven by deviations from the expectations.

这已经被定价，因为市场预计 2025 年只会降息两次，第一次最早会在 3 月份降息。因此，市场反应将由与预期的偏差所驱动。

Bitcoin Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

比特币技术分析 – 每日时间框架

On the daily chart, we can see that Bitcoin is trading above the key 100K level. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline where they will also have the 100K support for confluence. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to extend the pullback into the 90K price area.

在日线图上，我们可以看到比特币的交易价格高于关键的 100K 水平。从风险管理的角度来看，买家将在趋势线周围拥有更好的风险回报设置，他们还将获得 100K 的汇合支撑。另一方面，卖家希望看到价格跌破以将回调延续至 90K 价格区域。

Bitcoin Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

比特币技术分析 – 4 小时时间框架

On the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the setup around the trendline and the 100K support zone. There’s been a pretty choppy price action in the last couple of weeks as the bullish momentum waned a bit. The catalysts to watch now are the FOMC decision today and the inflation data in the next months. We could see a knee-jerk reaction lower on a hawkish cut today even though it’s already priced in. The dip-buyers might take advantage of that to position for a rally into new highs.

在4小时图上，我们可以更清楚地看到趋势线和100K支撑区周围的设置。过去几周，随着看涨势头有所减弱，价格走势相当波动。现在值得关注的催化剂是联邦公开市场委员会今天的决定和未来几个月的通胀数据。今天，我们可能会看到对鹰派降息的下意识反应走低，尽管它已经被定价。逢低买入者可能会利用这一点，为反弹至新高做好准备。

Bitcoin Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

比特币技术分析 – 1 小时时间框架

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor support around the higher low at 103300 level. The sellers will look for a break lower to extend the pullback into the 100K support, while the buyers will want to see the price breaking above the counter-trendline to target new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

在1小时图上，我们可以看到在较高的低点103300水平附近有一个小支撑。卖家将寻求突破以将回调延伸至 100K 支撑位，而买家则希望看到价格突破反趋势线以瞄准新高。红线定义了今天的平均每日范围。

Upcoming Catalysts

即将到来的催化剂

Today, we have the FOMC Policy Decision. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PCE data.

今天，我们将公布联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 的政策决定。明天，我们将获得最新的美国初请失业金人数。周五，我们将以美国 PCE 数据结束本周。