比特幣 (BTC) 價格分析：儘管存在聯準會升息風險，但多頭仍將目光瞄準 12 萬美元，BTC/美元技術分析

自選舉日以來，隨著川普獲勝後加密貨幣的看漲勢頭爆發，比特幣 (BTC) 目前已上漲超過 50%。

Fundamental Overview

基本概況

Bitcoin is up more than 50% since the election day, thanks to the bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency following Trump’s victory. This is to be expected, given that Trump vowed to make the US the crypto capital of the planet.

由於川普獲勝後加密貨幣的看漲勢頭，比特幣自選舉日以來已上漲超過 50%。鑑於川普發誓要讓美國成為地球的加密貨幣之都，這是可以預料的。

Another bullish driver is the US economy which not only performed well but started to re-accelerate amid the Fed’s easing and the expectations of expansionary fiscal policies like tax cuts and deregulation.

另一個看漲動力是美國經濟，在聯準會的寬鬆政策以及減稅和放鬆管制等擴張性財政政策的預期下，美國經濟不僅表現良好，而且開始重新加速。

For now, there’s no real top in sight as we would likely need a contractionary monetary policy or a notable slowdown in the economy, so buying the dips remains the favourite strategy. The risk in 2025 will be inflation and the Fed. If the central bank even slightly mentions the need for some tightening, then we could see some big corrections in all risk assets.

目前看不到真正的頂部，因為我們可能需要緊縮的貨幣政策或經濟顯著放緩，因此逢低買入仍然是最喜歡的策略。 2025 年的風險將是通膨和聯準會。如果央行稍微提到一些緊縮的必要性，那麼我們可能會看到所有風險資產都會大幅調整。

The Fed today is expected to cut by 25 bps bringing the FFR to 4.25-4.50%. We will also get the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) where growth and inflation should be revised upwards, and the Dot Plot will likely show two rate cuts in 2025. Fed Chair Powell should acknowledge the strength in the US data and announce a slowdown in the pace of easing.

預計聯準會今天將降息 25 個基點，將 FFR 降至 4.25-4.50%。我們還將獲得更新的經濟預測摘要 (SEP)，其中成長和通膨應上調，點圖可能會顯示 2025 年兩次降息。

This is already priced in as the market expects just two rate cuts in 2025, with the first one coming in March at the earliest. Therefore, the market reaction will be driven by deviations from the expectations.

這已經被定價，因為市場預計 2025 年只會降息兩次，第一次最早會在 3 月降息。因此，市場反應將由與預期的偏差所驅動。

Bitcoin Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

比特幣技術分析 – 每日時間框架

On the daily chart, we can see that Bitcoin is trading above the key 100K level. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline where they will also have the 100K support for confluence. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to extend the pullback into the 90K price area.

在日線圖上，我們可以看到比特幣的交易價格高於關鍵的 100K 水準。從風險管理的角度來看，買家將在趨勢線周圍擁有更好的風險回報設置，他們還將獲得 100K 的匯合支撐。另一方面，賣家希望看到價格跌破以將回調延續至 90K 價格區域。

Bitcoin Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

比特幣技術分析 – 4 小時時間框架

On the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the setup around the trendline and the 100K support zone. There’s been a pretty choppy price action in the last couple of weeks as the bullish momentum waned a bit. The catalysts to watch now are the FOMC decision today and the inflation data in the next months. We could see a knee-jerk reaction lower on a hawkish cut today even though it’s already priced in. The dip-buyers might take advantage of that to position for a rally into new highs.

在4小時圖上，我們可以更清楚地看到趨勢線和100K支撐區域周圍的設定。過去幾週，隨著看漲勢頭略有減弱，價格走勢相當波動。現在值得關注的催化劑是聯邦公開市場委員會今天的決定和未來幾個月的通膨數據。今天，我們可能會看到對鷹派降息的下意識反應走低，儘管它已經被定價。

Bitcoin Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

比特幣技術分析 – 1 小時時間框架

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor support around the higher low at 103300 level. The sellers will look for a break lower to extend the pullback into the 100K support, while the buyers will want to see the price breaking above the counter-trendline to target new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

在1小時圖上，我們可以看到在較高的低點103300水平附近有一個小支撐。賣家將尋求突破以將回調延伸至 100K 支撐位，而買家則希望看到價格突破反趨勢線以瞄準新高。紅線定義了今天的平均每日範圍。

Upcoming Catalysts

即將到來的催化劑

Today, we have the FOMC Policy Decision. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PCE data.

今天，我們將公佈聯邦公開市場委員會 (FOMC) 的政策決定。明天，我們將獲得最新的美國初請失業金人數。週五，我們將以美國 PCE 數據結束本週。