比特币（BTC）准备一周的经济报告，黄金测试记录高于$ 3,000

随着本周发布的一波经济报告，市场参与者正在为投资者情绪和美联储政策的潜在转变做好准备。

A pivotal week of U.S. economic reports is on the agenda, setting the stage for potential shifts in investor sentiment and Federal Reserve policy.

美国经济报告的关键一周是在议程上，为投资者情绪和美联储政策的潜在转变奠定了基础。

Inflation data, housing figures, and remarks from central bank officials will be closely followed for clues on the trajectory of interest rates and overall market conditions.

通货膨胀数据，住房数字和中央银行官员的言论将受到有关利率和整体市场状况的轨迹的线索。

In the realm of precious metals, gold is testing record highs above $3,000 per ounce.

在贵金属领域，黄金正在测试每盎司3,000美元以上的记录高点。

The yellow metal is defying broader economic concerns, thanks to its status as a safe-haven asset amid inflation worries, strong central bank gold purchases, and escalating U.S. trade tensions.

黄金金属在通货膨胀的担忧，强劲的中央银行购买以及美国贸易紧张局势升级的情况下，违反了更广泛的经济问题，这是由于其作为避风港资产的地位。

Conversely, Bitcoin (BTC) remains caught in a battle between bullish optimism and mounting bearish pressures.

相反，比特币（BTC）仍然陷入看涨乐观与越来越多的看跌压力之间的战斗。

Key indicators are signaling a shift toward greater caution in the crypto sphere.

关键指标是指示加密球体中更加谨慎的转变。

U.S. Economic Data in Focus

美国经济数据重点

An important indicator to watch out for is the February U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the preferred inflation measure used by the Federal Reserve.

要注意的一个重要指标是美国2月的个人消费支出（PCE）指数，这是美联储使用的首选通货膨胀措施。

This key report is due on Friday, March 29.

该关键报告将于3月29日星期五举行。

The report follows recent signals of cooling inflation, and its outcome could influence expectations for future Federal Reserve policy decisions.

该报告遵循冷却通货膨胀的最新信号，其结果可能会影响对未来美联储政策决策的期望。

In addition to inflation data, fresh reports on home sales and consumer sentiment will offer further clues on economic resilience.

除通货膨胀数据外，有关房屋销售和消费者情绪的全新报告还将提供有关经济韧性的进一步线索。

Despite recent strength in the labor market and consumer spending, there are signs of fatigue emerging in the housing market.

尽管最近的劳动力市场和消费者支出的实力，但住房市场仍存在疲劳的迹象。

Rising mortgage rates and persistent affordability challenges have been weighing on homebuyer activity.

抵押贷款率上升和持续的负担能力挑战一直在压力购房者活动。

Meanwhile, early signals of weakening consumer sentiment could shape how the Fed approaches interest rates in the coming months.

同时，削弱消费者情绪的早期信号可能会影响美联储在未来几个月内如何接近利率。

As the Federal Reserve pivots from quantitative tightening to a potential pivot in the second half of 2024, the timing and signals from upcoming Fed officials’ speeches will be crucial.

由于美联储在2024年下半年从定量收紧到潜在的枢轴枢轴，即将发表的美联储官员演讲的时机和信号至关重要。

New York Fed President John Williams, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic are among those set to speak this week.

纽约美联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯（John Williams），里士满美联储主席汤姆·巴金（Tom Barkin）和亚特兰大联邦政府（Atlanta Fed）总统拉斐尔·波斯蒂奇（Raphael Bostic）将于本周讲话。

Their commentary will be closely monitored for hints on the Fed’s evolving stance, especially in light of Chair Jerome Powell’s recent remarks.

他们的评论将受到有关美联储不断发展的立场的暗示，尤其是鉴于杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）最近的讲话的提示。

Last week, Powell signaled that the outlook for the U.S. economy remains strong, despite recent signs of slowing economic activity and inflation.

上周，鲍威尔（Powell）表示，尽管最近有经济活动和通货膨胀率放缓的迹象，但美国经济的前景仍然很强。

Gold’s Rally Faces a Key Test

黄金的集会面临关键测试

Gold’s surge past the $3,000 mark last week has captivated investors, with analysts at Macquarie Capital closely monitoring if the rally can be sustained or if a pullback is imminent.

戈尔德上周超过3,000美元的涨幅吸引了投资者，麦格理Capital的分析师是否可以维持集会，或者即将撤退。

They note that a move to $3,500 in the third quarter wouldn’t be surprising if these bullish factors continue to drive demand.

他们指出，如果这些看涨因素继续推动需求，第三季度将搬到3,500美元。

However, they advise traders to be wary of short-term fluctuations as market participants digest macroeconomic data and central bank signals.

但是，随着市场参与者消化宏观经济数据和中央银行信号，他们建议交易者对短期波动保持警惕。

If traders become complacent with the current trends, it could lead to some volatility in the short term.

如果交易者对当前趋势感到自满，那么短期内可能会导致一定的波动。

The world’s central banks are expected to increase their gold purchases in 2024.

预计全球中央银行将在2024年增加购买黄金。

The strong demand from central banks is a significant factor driving gold’s price higher.

中央银行的强劲需求是推动黄金价格提高的重要因素。

Moreover, any new signals from the U.S.-China trade war could have a rapid impact on gold’s price.

此外，美国 - 中国贸易战争的任何新信号都可能会对黄金的价格产生迅速影响。

Recently, the U.S. announced an investigation into Chinese solar imports, potentially affecting the two economic superpowers’ trade relations once again.

最近，美国宣布了对中国太阳能进口的调查，可能会再次影响这两个经济超级大国的贸易关系。

Bitcoin Without Direction

没有方向的比特币

While gold enjoys a strong rally, Bitcoin (BTC) is navigating a more uncertain path. Key indicators suggest growing bearish sentiment, with rising whale activity on exchanges and increased demand for options hedging against downside risk.

尽管黄金享有强烈的集会，但比特币（BTC）正在驾驶不确定的道路。主要指标表明，越来越多的看跌感情，鲸鱼活动的增加，并增加了对对冲下行风险的期权的需求。

The analysis of Bitcoin’s market trends reveals a shift in market sentiment.

对比特币市场趋势的分析表明，市场情绪发生了变化。

As seen in the chart above, the "whale ratio" on exchanges has climbed to 0.6, its highest level in over a year.

如上图所示，交流的“鲸鱼比”已攀升至0.6，这是一年多以上的最高水平。

This signals that large BTC holders, known as whales, are moving significant amounts onto trading platforms, which has historically been a precursor to selling pressure.

这表明大型BTC持有人（称为鲸鱼）正在向交易平台移动大量，这在历史上一直是销售压力的先驱。

Similar spikes in mid-2024 preceded notable price drops, raising concerns about potential volatility ahead.

在2024年中期，类似的峰值在价格下降之前，引起了人们对未来潜在波动率的担忧。

Another indicator of potential market shifts is the strong demand for put options.

潜在市场转变的另一个指标是对PUT选择的强烈需求。

Investors are paying high premiums for put options below $80,000, suggesting a growing appetite for downside protection.

投资者正在为低于80,000美元的PIT期权支付高额保费，这表明对下行保护的需求日益增长。

This trend, signaled by a high put/call ratio, further reinforces a shift toward defensive strategies, highlighting broader market uncertainty.

这种趋势以高的呼叫比率表示，进一步加强了向防御策略的转变，强调了更广泛的市场不确定性。

From a technical perspective, BTC has a strong support zone between $81,000 and $82,600. A break below $80,000 could trigger a sharper decline toward the $72,000–$75,000 range.

从技术角度来看，BTC的支持区在81,000美元至82,600美元之间。低于$ 80,000的休息可能会导致急剧下降到72,000至75,000美元的范围。

On the upside, resistance levels remain at the 100-day moving average, near $94,000, and the 50-day average at $90,000.

从好的方面来说，阻力水平保持在100天移动平均水平，接近94,000美元，50天平均水平为90,000美元。

As the macroeconomic outlook comes into sharper focus with key U.S. economic data and inflation trends,

随着宏观经济的前景随着美国的主要经济数据和通货膨胀趋势而变得更加焦点，