比特幣（BTC）準備一周的經濟報告，黃金測試記錄高於$ 3,000

隨著本週發布的一波經濟報告，市場參與者正在為投資者情緒和美聯儲政策的潛在轉變做好準備。

A pivotal week of U.S. economic reports is on the agenda, setting the stage for potential shifts in investor sentiment and Federal Reserve policy.

美國經濟報告的關鍵一周是在議程上，為投資者情緒和美聯儲政策的潛在轉變奠定了基礎。

Inflation data, housing figures, and remarks from central bank officials will be closely followed for clues on the trajectory of interest rates and overall market conditions.

通貨膨脹數據，住房數字和中央銀行官員的言論將受到有關利率和整體市場狀況的軌蹟的線索。

In the realm of precious metals, gold is testing record highs above $3,000 per ounce.

在貴金屬領域，黃金正在測試每盎司3,000美元以上的記錄高點。

The yellow metal is defying broader economic concerns, thanks to its status as a safe-haven asset amid inflation worries, strong central bank gold purchases, and escalating U.S. trade tensions.

黃金金屬在通貨膨脹的擔憂，強勁的中央銀行購買以及美國貿易緊張局勢升級的情況下，違反了更廣泛的經濟問題，這是由於其作為避風港資產的地位。

Conversely, Bitcoin (BTC) remains caught in a battle between bullish optimism and mounting bearish pressures.

相反，比特幣（BTC）仍然陷入看漲樂觀與越來越多的看跌壓力之間的戰鬥。

Key indicators are signaling a shift toward greater caution in the crypto sphere.

關鍵指標是指示加密球體中更加謹慎的轉變。

U.S. Economic Data in Focus

美國經濟數據重點

An important indicator to watch out for is the February U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the preferred inflation measure used by the Federal Reserve.

要注意的一個重要指標是美國2月的個人消費支出（PCE）指數，這是美聯儲使用的首選通貨膨脹措施。

This key report is due on Friday, March 29.

該關鍵報告將於3月29日星期五舉行。

The report follows recent signals of cooling inflation, and its outcome could influence expectations for future Federal Reserve policy decisions.

該報告遵循冷卻通貨膨脹的最新信號，其結果可能會影響對未來美聯儲政策決策的期望。

In addition to inflation data, fresh reports on home sales and consumer sentiment will offer further clues on economic resilience.

除通貨膨脹數據外，有關房屋銷售和消費者情緒的全新報告還將提供有關經濟韌性的進一步線索。

Despite recent strength in the labor market and consumer spending, there are signs of fatigue emerging in the housing market.

儘管最近的勞動力市場和消費者支出的實力，但住房市場仍存在疲勞的跡象。

Rising mortgage rates and persistent affordability challenges have been weighing on homebuyer activity.

抵押貸款率上升和持續的負擔能力挑戰一直在壓力購房者活動。

Meanwhile, early signals of weakening consumer sentiment could shape how the Fed approaches interest rates in the coming months.

同時，削弱消費者情緒的早期信號可能會影響美聯儲在未來幾個月內如何接近利率。

As the Federal Reserve pivots from quantitative tightening to a potential pivot in the second half of 2024, the timing and signals from upcoming Fed officials’ speeches will be crucial.

由於美聯儲在2024年下半年從定量收緊到潛在的樞軸樞軸，即將發表的美聯儲官員演講的時機和信號至關重要。

New York Fed President John Williams, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic are among those set to speak this week.

紐約美聯儲主席約翰·威廉姆斯（John Williams），里士滿美聯儲主席湯姆·巴金（Tom Barkin）和亞特蘭大聯邦政府（Atlanta Fed）總統拉斐爾·波斯蒂奇（Raphael Bostic）將於本週講話。

Their commentary will be closely monitored for hints on the Fed’s evolving stance, especially in light of Chair Jerome Powell’s recent remarks.

他們的評論將受到有關美聯儲不斷發展的立場的暗示，尤其是鑑於杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）最近的講話的提示。

Last week, Powell signaled that the outlook for the U.S. economy remains strong, despite recent signs of slowing economic activity and inflation.

上週，鮑威爾（Powell）表示，儘管最近有經濟活動和通貨膨脹率放緩的跡象，但美國經濟的前景仍然很強。

Gold’s Rally Faces a Key Test

黃金的集會面臨關鍵測試

Gold’s surge past the $3,000 mark last week has captivated investors, with analysts at Macquarie Capital closely monitoring if the rally can be sustained or if a pullback is imminent.

戈爾德上週超過3,000美元的漲幅吸引了投資者，麥格理Capital的分析師是否可以維持集會，或者即將撤退。

They note that a move to $3,500 in the third quarter wouldn’t be surprising if these bullish factors continue to drive demand.

他們指出，如果這些看漲因素繼續推動需求，第三季度將搬到3,500美元。

However, they advise traders to be wary of short-term fluctuations as market participants digest macroeconomic data and central bank signals.

但是，隨著市場參與者消化宏觀經濟數據和中央銀行信號，他們建議交易者對短期波動保持警惕。

If traders become complacent with the current trends, it could lead to some volatility in the short term.

如果交易者對當前趨勢感到自滿，那麼短期內可能會導致一定的波動。

The world’s central banks are expected to increase their gold purchases in 2024.

預計全球中央銀行將在2024年增加購買黃金。

The strong demand from central banks is a significant factor driving gold’s price higher.

中央銀行的強勁需求是推動黃金價格提高的重要因素。

Moreover, any new signals from the U.S.-China trade war could have a rapid impact on gold’s price.

此外，美國 - 中國貿易戰爭的任何新信號都可能會對黃金的價格產生迅速影響。

Recently, the U.S. announced an investigation into Chinese solar imports, potentially affecting the two economic superpowers’ trade relations once again.

最近，美國宣布了對中國太陽能進口的調查，可能會再次影響這兩個經濟超級大國的貿易關係。

Bitcoin Without Direction

沒有方向的比特幣

While gold enjoys a strong rally, Bitcoin (BTC) is navigating a more uncertain path. Key indicators suggest growing bearish sentiment, with rising whale activity on exchanges and increased demand for options hedging against downside risk.

儘管黃金享有強烈的集會，但比特幣（BTC）正在駕駛不確定的道路。主要指標表明，越來越多的看跌感情，鯨魚活動的增加，並增加了對對沖下行風險的期權的需求。

The analysis of Bitcoin’s market trends reveals a shift in market sentiment.

對比特幣市場趨勢的分析表明，市場情緒發生了變化。

As seen in the chart above, the "whale ratio" on exchanges has climbed to 0.6, its highest level in over a year.

如上圖所示，交流的“鯨魚比”已攀升至0.6，這是一年多以上的最高水平。

This signals that large BTC holders, known as whales, are moving significant amounts onto trading platforms, which has historically been a precursor to selling pressure.

這表明大型BTC持有人（稱為鯨魚）正在向交易平台移動大量，這在歷史上一直是銷售壓力的先驅。

Similar spikes in mid-2024 preceded notable price drops, raising concerns about potential volatility ahead.

在2024年中期，類似的峰值在價格下降之前，引起了人們對未來潛在波動率的擔憂。

Another indicator of potential market shifts is the strong demand for put options.

潛在市場轉變的另一個指標是對PUT選擇的強烈需求。

Investors are paying high premiums for put options below $80,000, suggesting a growing appetite for downside protection.

投資者正在為低於80,000美元的PIT期權支付高額保費，這表明對下行保護的需求日益增長。

This trend, signaled by a high put/call ratio, further reinforces a shift toward defensive strategies, highlighting broader market uncertainty.

這種趨勢以高的呼叫比率表示，進一步加強了向防禦策略的轉變，強調了更廣泛的市場不確定性。

From a technical perspective, BTC has a strong support zone between $81,000 and $82,600. A break below $80,000 could trigger a sharper decline toward the $72,000–$75,000 range.

從技術角度來看，BTC的支持區在81,000美元至82,600美元之間。低於$ 80,000的休息可能會導致急劇下降到72,000至75,000美元的範圍。

On the upside, resistance levels remain at the 100-day moving average, near $94,000, and the 50-day average at $90,000.

從好的方面來說，阻力水平保持在100天移動平均水平，接近94,000美元，50天平均水平為90,000美元。

As the macroeconomic outlook comes into sharper focus with key U.S. economic data and inflation trends,

隨著宏觀經濟的前景隨著美國的主要經濟數據和通貨膨脹趨勢而變得更加焦點，