报告：比特币（BTC）有望成为抵御主权违约风险的“投资组合保险”

根据加密资产管理公司 Bitwise 最近的一份报告，比特币（BTC）完全可以充当抵御主权违约风险的“投资组合保险”。

A recent report by crypto asset manager Bitwise has found that Bitcoin (BTC) is well-positioned to function as “portfolio insurance” against sovereign default risks. The report comes at a time when global debt-to-GDP levels are breaching new highs, sparking concerns about a potential global debt crisis.

加密资产管理公司 Bitwise 最近的一份报告发现，比特币（BTC）完全可以充当抵御主权违约风险的“投资组合保险”。该报告发布之际，全球债务与国内生产总值的比率正突破新高，引发人们对潜在全球债务危机的担忧。

The Bitwise report highlights Bitcoin as an ‘interesting alternative’ for investors seeking to preserve their wealth during scenarios such as sovereign defaults or hyperinflation. It states:

Bitwise 报告强调，对于在主权违约或恶性通货膨胀等情况下寻求保全财富的投资者来说，比特币是一种“有趣的选择”。它指出：

In a theoretical model, Bitcoin can serve as “portfolio insurance” against the default of a basket of major sovereign bonds with a current “fair value” of around 219k USD based on this model.

在理论模型中，比特币可以作为针对一篮子主要主权债券违约的“投资组合保险”，根据该模型，当前“公允价值”约为21.9万美元。

To provide context, global public debt levels are steadily climbing. Recently, the US public debt surpassed $36 trillion, equating to 123% of the country's GDP. What's more concerning is the accelerated pace of debt growth since September 2024, amounting to $917 billion in just a short span.

作为背景，全球公共债务水平正在稳步攀升。最近，美国公共债务超过36万亿美元，相当于该国GDP的123%。更令人担忧的是，自2024年9月以来债务增长速度加快，短时间内就达到了9170亿美元。

This rising fiscal debt isn't limited to the US. Other major economies, such as France and the UK, are also experiencing unprecedented increases in public debt, raising alarm bells for bond investors.

这种不断增加的财政债务不仅限于美国。法国和英国等其他主要经济体的公共债务也出现了前所未有的增长，给债券投资者敲响了警钟。

The Bitwise report cites Bitcoin as a compelling alternative to gold in such scenarios. It highlights that Bitcoin's decentralized network architecture essentially makes it a ‘trustless system,’ setting it apart from sovereign bond contracts, which rely on the issuer’s ability to repay its debt.

Bitwise 报告指出，在这种情况下，比特币是黄金的一个令人信服的替代品。它强调，比特币的去中心化网络架构本质上使其成为一个“无需信任的系统”，这将其与主权债券合约区分开来，后者依赖于发行人偿还债务的能力。

The report also mentions that the weighted average default probability for G20 nations over the next decade is currently 6.2%. In comparison, the US has a weighted average default probability of around 4.5%. The report notes:

报告还提到，G20国家未来十年的加权平均违约概率目前为6.2%。相比之下，美国的加权平均违约概率约为 4.5%。报告指出：

Based on this model, this would imply a “fair value” of Bitcoin of around $219,000 per BTC already. In the unlikely event that all G20 sovereign bonds would default simultaneously, the theoretical “fair value” of 1 single BTC within this model would increase to approximately $3.5 million.

根据这个模型，这意味着比特币的“公允价值”已经达到每比特币 219,000 美元左右。万一所有 G20 主权债券同时违约，该模型中 1 个 BTC 的理论“公允价值”将增加至约 350 万美元。

That said, the report emphasizes that major economies are unlikely to default in the short-term. However, the aforementioned model gives insight into where BTC's price might soar if such a scenario were to occur.

尽管如此，报告强调主要经济体短期内不太可能违约。然而，上述模型可以让我们深入了解如果发生这种情况，比特币的价格可能会飙升。

Bitcoin Holding Steady Amid Macro Uncertainties

比特币在宏观不确定性中保持稳定

Since the March 2020 coronavirus crash, Bitcoin has largely remained resilient, despite facing significant macroeconomic headwinds over the past five years. For instance, BTC price exhibited resiliency after the US Federal Reserve announced its intention to slow interest rate cuts in 2025.

自 2020 年 3 月冠状病毒崩盘以来，尽管过去五年面临着巨大的宏观经济阻力，但比特币在很大程度上仍保持弹性。例如，在美联储宣布打算在 2025 年放缓降息之后，比特币价格表现出弹性。

Similarly, the resurgence of the Bitcoin ‘kimchi premium’ during South Korea's political crisis in December highlighted investors' preference for BTC as a wealth-preservation asset in times of uncertainty. At press time, BTC trades at $105,761, up 1.2% in the past 24 hours.

同样，去年 12 月韩国政治危机期间，比特币“泡菜溢价”的复苏凸显了投资者在不确定时期将比特币作为财富保值资产的偏好。截至发稿，BTC 交易价格为 105,761 美元，过去 24 小时上涨 1.2%。