報告：比特幣（BTC）有望成為抵禦主權違約風險的“投資組合保險”

根據加密資產管理公司 Bitwise 最近的一份報告，比特幣（BTC）完全可以充當抵禦主權違約風險的「投資組合保險」。

A recent report by crypto asset manager Bitwise has found that Bitcoin (BTC) is well-positioned to function as “portfolio insurance” against sovereign default risks. The report comes at a time when global debt-to-GDP levels are breaching new highs, sparking concerns about a potential global debt crisis.

加密資產管理公司 Bitwise 最近的一份報告發現，比特幣（BTC）完全可以充當抵禦主權違約風險的「投資組合保險」。該報告發布之際，全球債務與國內生產毛額的比率正突破新高，引發人們對潛在全球債務危機的擔憂。

The Bitwise report highlights Bitcoin as an ‘interesting alternative’ for investors seeking to preserve their wealth during scenarios such as sovereign defaults or hyperinflation. It states:

Bitwise 報告強調，對於在主權違約或惡性通貨膨脹等情況下尋求保全財富的投資者來說，比特幣是一種「有趣的選擇」。它指出：

In a theoretical model, Bitcoin can serve as “portfolio insurance” against the default of a basket of major sovereign bonds with a current “fair value” of around 219k USD based on this model.

在理論模型中，比特幣可以作為針對一籃子主要主權債券違約的“投資組合保險”，根據該模型，當前“公允價值”約為21.9萬美元。

To provide context, global public debt levels are steadily climbing. Recently, the US public debt surpassed $36 trillion, equating to 123% of the country's GDP. What's more concerning is the accelerated pace of debt growth since September 2024, amounting to $917 billion in just a short span.

作為背景，全球公共債務水準正在穩步攀升。最近，美國公共債務超過36兆美元，相當於該國GDP的123%。更令人擔憂的是，自2024年9月以來債務成長速度加快，短時間內就達到了9,170億美元。

This rising fiscal debt isn't limited to the US. Other major economies, such as France and the UK, are also experiencing unprecedented increases in public debt, raising alarm bells for bond investors.

不斷增加的財政債務不僅限於美國。法國和英國等其他主要經濟體的公共債務也出現了前所未有的成長，給債券投資者敲響了警鐘。

The Bitwise report cites Bitcoin as a compelling alternative to gold in such scenarios. It highlights that Bitcoin's decentralized network architecture essentially makes it a ‘trustless system,’ setting it apart from sovereign bond contracts, which rely on the issuer’s ability to repay its debt.

Bitwise 報告指出，在這種情況下，比特幣是黃金的一個令人信服的替代品。它強調，比特幣的去中心化網路架構本質上使其成為一個“無需信任的系統”，這將其與主權債券合約區分開來，後者依賴於發行人償還債務的能力。

The report also mentions that the weighted average default probability for G20 nations over the next decade is currently 6.2%. In comparison, the US has a weighted average default probability of around 4.5%. The report notes:

報告也提到，G20國家未來十年的加權平均違約機率目前為6.2%。相較之下，美國的加權平均違約機率約為 4.5%。報告指出：

Based on this model, this would imply a “fair value” of Bitcoin of around $219,000 per BTC already. In the unlikely event that all G20 sovereign bonds would default simultaneously, the theoretical “fair value” of 1 single BTC within this model would increase to approximately $3.5 million.

根據這個模型，這意味著比特幣的「公允價值」已經達到每比特幣 219,000 美元左右。萬一所有 G20 主權債券同時違約，該模型中 1 個 BTC 的理論「公允價值」將增加至約 350 萬美元。

That said, the report emphasizes that major economies are unlikely to default in the short-term. However, the aforementioned model gives insight into where BTC's price might soar if such a scenario were to occur.

儘管如此，報告強調主要經濟體短期內不太可能違約。然而，上述模型可以讓我們深入了解如果發生這種情況，比特幣的價格可能會飆升。

Bitcoin Holding Steady Amid Macro Uncertainties

比特幣在宏觀不確定性中保持穩定

Since the March 2020 coronavirus crash, Bitcoin has largely remained resilient, despite facing significant macroeconomic headwinds over the past five years. For instance, BTC price exhibited resiliency after the US Federal Reserve announced its intention to slow interest rate cuts in 2025.

自 2020 年 3 月冠狀病毒崩盤以來，儘管過去五年面臨巨大的宏觀經濟阻力，但比特幣在很大程度上仍保持彈性。例如，在聯準會宣布打算在 2025 年放緩降息之後，比特幣價格表現出彈性。

Similarly, the resurgence of the Bitcoin ‘kimchi premium’ during South Korea's political crisis in December highlighted investors' preference for BTC as a wealth-preservation asset in times of uncertainty. At press time, BTC trades at $105,761, up 1.2% in the past 24 hours.

同樣，去年 12 月韓國政治危機期間，比特幣「泡菜溢價」的復甦凸顯了投資者在不確定時期將比特幣作為財富保值資產的偏好。截至發稿，BTC 交易價格為 105,761 美元，過去 24 小時上漲 1.2%。