比特币（BTC）在2025年3月的关键时期导航，短期持有人面临损失

比特币是加密货币市场的领导者，目前正在2025年3月的关键时期浏览。其价格变动已开始反映类似于以前的周期的模式

Bitcoin (BTC) is navigating a crucial period in March 2025, with its price movements beginning to reflect patterns observed during previous cycles.

比特币（BTC）在2025年3月在关键时期导航，其价格变动开始反映在以前的周期中观察到的模式。

Following a downturn from the August 2024 high, which saw a steeper decline compared to the 2021 market crash, Bitcoin’s price has stabilised. However, this recovery has brought short-term holders into a precarious position, with many now facing losses as the market continues to fluctuate.

在2024年8月高的高潮下降后，与2021年市场崩溃相比，比特币的价格稳定下来。但是，这种复苏使短期持有人处于不稳定的位置，随着市场的不断波动，许多人现在面临损失。

Short-Term Holders Still in the Red

短期持有人仍然处于红色

短期持有人仍然处于红色

Examining the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price, we can see that those who bought during the last cycle at prices above $90,000 are now encountering a similar level of losses to what was seen in August 2024.

在检查短期持有人（STH）实现的价格时，我们可以看到，在上一个周期以上价格超过90,000美元购买的人现在遇到的损失水平与2024年8月所看到的相似。

This trend is evident as the STH Realized Price, a key indicator, currently stands at $92,780. In contrast, the price at which the coins were last accumulated is $84,000, indicating a disparity of $8,780. This difference suggests that many short-term holders are still “underwater” and realizing losses.

这种趋势很明显，因为STH实现的价格是一个关键指标，目前为92,780美元。相比之下，硬币最后累积的价格为84,000美元，表明差距为8,780美元。这种差异表明，许多短期持有人仍在“水下”并意识到损失。

Chart of the STH Realized Price and the last price at which coins were accumulated closely follows the MVRV ratio in market cycles.

STH的图表实现了价格和累积的硬币的最后价格，遵循市场周期的MVRV比率。

When considering the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio in addition to the STH Realized Price, we gain a deeper understanding of the market’s present structure.

当考虑到STH实现的价格外，考虑到实现价值（MVRV）的市场价值（MVRV）时，我们对市场的当前结构有了更深入的了解。

Typically, the MVRV ratio is used to determine if Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued. A ratio above 2.0 suggests overvaluation, often observed before market corrections. At the time of writing, the MVRV stands at 1.5, a level that might indicate an approach to an accumulation phase rather than overbought conditions.

通常，MVRV比率用于确定比特币是否被高估或被低估。高于2.0的比率表明高估，通常在市场校正之前观察到。在撰写本文时，MVRV为1.5，一个水平可能表明累积阶段的方法而不是过分买的条件。

Chart of the MVRV ratio highlighting the typical overvalued and undervalued zones.

MVRV比的图表突出了典型的被高估和被低估的区域。

If Bitcoin manages to break through the resistance at $92,780, it could signal a return of bullish momentum. Surpassing this level could pave the way for a test of the $100,000 mark.

如果比特币设法以92,780美元的价格突破阻力，则可能标志着看涨势头的回归。超过此水平可能为测试100,000美元的测试铺平了道路。

However, if Bitcoin fails to maintain support above the $80,000 level, the market could face increased selling pressure, possibly leading to a retest of the $70,000 range.

但是，如果比特币未能维持高于80,000美元的支持，市场可能会面临销售压力的增加，可能会导致重新测试70,000美元的范围。

Interestingly, similar patterns have been observed during past market cycles. For instance, in mid-2024, when Bitcoin reached $100,000, there was a sharp pullback to $70,000, followed by a significant rebound.

有趣的是，在过去的市场周期中已经观察到了类似的模式。例如，在2024年中期，当比特币达到100,000美元时，急剧下降至70,000美元，然后是重大反弹。

If this historical trend continues, we might witness another correction before a recovery towards the $100,000 level.

如果这种历史趋势继续下去，我们可能会在恢复100,000美元的水平之前再次进行更正。

Bitcoin Liquidity and Supply Dynamics

比特币流动性和供应动态

比特币流动性和供应动态

Examining the 5-10 year cohort of Bitcoin supply, we can see that it peaked at 8 million BTC in 2021, but has since been decreasing.

在检查了5 - 10年的比特币供应队列时，我们可以看到它在2021年达到了800万BTC的峰值，但此后一直在减少。

As of early 2025, the 6-12 month supply band stabilized at 3 million BTC, showing that a significant portion of Bitcoin is now held by long-term investors.

截至2025年初，6-12个月的供应带稳定在300万BTC上，表明长期投资者现在拥有很大一部分比特币。

This shift in supply dynamics could play a role in future price movements, as long-term holders are less likely to sell during a market correction.

供应动态的这种转变可能在未来的价格变动中发挥作用，因为在市场更正期间长期持有人销售的可能性较小。

The younger supply bands, which saw increased activity during the 2024 rally to $100,000, may see renewed movement if Bitcoin surpasses $100,000 again. Conversely, prolonged price suppression below $80,000 could lead to further aging of Bitcoin’s supply, extending bearish conditions.

如果比特币再次超过$ 100,000，那么年轻的供应带的活动增加到2024年的集会上的活动增加到100,000美元。相反，长时间的价格抑制低于80,000美元，可能会导致比特币供应的进一步衰老，从而扩大看跌状态。

Market Sentiment and Newcomer Behavior

市场情绪和新移民行为

市场情绪和新移民行为

Current market sentiment, analyzed through the MVRV ratio, suggests a cautious outlook.

通过MVRV比率分析的当前市场情绪表明前景谨慎。

With Bitcoin’s MVRV at 1.5 and short-term holders still in the red, many newcomers who bought at inflated prices around $95,000 may be reconsidering their positions, especially as the price continues to test support levels.

由于比特币的MVRV为1.5，而短期持有人仍处于红色状态，许多以高价购买95,000美元的新移民可能会重新考虑其头寸，尤其是当价格继续测试支持水平时。

New traders, often influenced by media hype and speculation, are becoming more focused on short-term trends over long-term value, which could induce market turbulence.

通常受媒体炒作和投机性影响的新交易者越来越重视短期趋势，而不是长期价值，这可能会引起市场动荡。

As Bitcoin struggles to maintain its upward momentum, the market could face increased volatility, particularly if the MVRV drops closer to 1.0, signaling a deeper decline and potentially a revisit of the $70,000 level.

随着比特币努力维持其上升势头，市场可能会面临增加的波动性，尤其是如果MVRV接近1.0，这表明较深的下降幅度更深，并且可能重新访问了70,000美元的水平。