比特幣（BTC）在2025年3月的關鍵時期導航，短期持有人面臨損失

比特幣是加密貨幣市場的領導者，目前正在2025年3月的關鍵時期瀏覽。其價格變動已開始反映類似於以前的周期的模式

Bitcoin (BTC) is navigating a crucial period in March 2025, with its price movements beginning to reflect patterns observed during previous cycles.

比特幣（BTC）在2025年3月在關鍵時期導航，其價格變動開始反映在以前的周期中觀察到的模式。

Following a downturn from the August 2024 high, which saw a steeper decline compared to the 2021 market crash, Bitcoin’s price has stabilised. However, this recovery has brought short-term holders into a precarious position, with many now facing losses as the market continues to fluctuate.

在2024年8月高的高潮下降後，與2021年市場崩潰相比，比特幣的價格穩定下來。但是，這種複蘇使短期持有人處於不穩定的位置，隨著市場的不斷波動，許多人現在面臨損失。

Short-Term Holders Still in the Red

短期持有人仍然處於紅色

短期持有人仍然處於紅色

Examining the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price, we can see that those who bought during the last cycle at prices above $90,000 are now encountering a similar level of losses to what was seen in August 2024.

在檢查短期持有人（STH）實現的價格時，我們可以看到，在上一個週期以上價格超過90,000美元購買的人現在遇到的損失水平與2024年8月所看到的相似。

This trend is evident as the STH Realized Price, a key indicator, currently stands at $92,780. In contrast, the price at which the coins were last accumulated is $84,000, indicating a disparity of $8,780. This difference suggests that many short-term holders are still “underwater” and realizing losses.

這種趨勢很明顯，因為STH實現的價格是一個關鍵指標，目前為92,780美元。相比之下，硬幣最後累積的價格為84,000美元，表明差距為8,780美元。這種差異表明，許多短期持有人仍在“水下”並意識到損失。

Chart of the STH Realized Price and the last price at which coins were accumulated closely follows the MVRV ratio in market cycles.

STH的圖表實現了價格和累積的硬幣的最後價格，遵循市場週期的MVRV比率。

When considering the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio in addition to the STH Realized Price, we gain a deeper understanding of the market’s present structure.

當考慮到STH實現的價格外，考慮到實現價值（MVRV）的市場價值（MVRV）時，我們對市場的當前結構有了更深入的了解。

Typically, the MVRV ratio is used to determine if Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued. A ratio above 2.0 suggests overvaluation, often observed before market corrections. At the time of writing, the MVRV stands at 1.5, a level that might indicate an approach to an accumulation phase rather than overbought conditions.

通常，MVRV比率用於確定比特幣是否被高估或被低估。高於2.0的比率表明高估，通常在市場校正之前觀察到。在撰寫本文時，MVRV為1.5，一個水平可能表明累積階段的方法而不是過分買的條件。

Chart of the MVRV ratio highlighting the typical overvalued and undervalued zones.

MVRV比的圖表突出了典型的被高估和被低估的區域。

If Bitcoin manages to break through the resistance at $92,780, it could signal a return of bullish momentum. Surpassing this level could pave the way for a test of the $100,000 mark.

如果比特幣設法以92,780美元的價格突破阻力，則可能標誌著看漲勢頭的回歸。超過此水平可能為測試100,000美元的測試鋪平了道路。

However, if Bitcoin fails to maintain support above the $80,000 level, the market could face increased selling pressure, possibly leading to a retest of the $70,000 range.

但是，如果比特幣未能維持高於80,000美元的支持，市場可能會面臨銷售壓力的增加，可能會導致重新測試70,000美元的範圍。

Interestingly, similar patterns have been observed during past market cycles. For instance, in mid-2024, when Bitcoin reached $100,000, there was a sharp pullback to $70,000, followed by a significant rebound.

有趣的是，在過去的市場週期中已經觀察到了類似的模式。例如，在2024年中期，當比特幣達到100,000美元時，急劇下降至70,000美元，然後是重大反彈。

If this historical trend continues, we might witness another correction before a recovery towards the $100,000 level.

如果這種歷史趨勢繼續下去，我們可能會在恢復100,000美元的水平之前再次進行更正。

Bitcoin Liquidity and Supply Dynamics

比特幣流動性和供應動態

比特幣流動性和供應動態

Examining the 5-10 year cohort of Bitcoin supply, we can see that it peaked at 8 million BTC in 2021, but has since been decreasing.

在檢查了5 - 10年的比特幣供應隊列時，我們可以看到它在2021年達到了800萬BTC的峰值，但此後一直在減少。

As of early 2025, the 6-12 month supply band stabilized at 3 million BTC, showing that a significant portion of Bitcoin is now held by long-term investors.

截至2025年初，6-12個月的供應帶穩定在300萬BTC上，表明長期投資者現在擁有很大一部分比特幣。

This shift in supply dynamics could play a role in future price movements, as long-term holders are less likely to sell during a market correction.

供應動態的這種轉變可能在未來的價格變動中發揮作用，因為在市場更正期間長期持有人銷售的可能性較小。

The younger supply bands, which saw increased activity during the 2024 rally to $100,000, may see renewed movement if Bitcoin surpasses $100,000 again. Conversely, prolonged price suppression below $80,000 could lead to further aging of Bitcoin’s supply, extending bearish conditions.

如果比特幣再次超過$ 100,000，那麼年輕的供應帶的活動增加到2024年的集會上的活動增加到100,000美元。相反，長時間的價格抑制低於80,000美元，可能會導致比特幣供應的進一步衰老，從而擴大看跌狀態。

Market Sentiment and Newcomer Behavior

市場情緒和新移民行為

市場情緒和新移民行為

Current market sentiment, analyzed through the MVRV ratio, suggests a cautious outlook.

通過MVRV比率分析的當前市場情緒表明前景謹慎。

With Bitcoin’s MVRV at 1.5 and short-term holders still in the red, many newcomers who bought at inflated prices around $95,000 may be reconsidering their positions, especially as the price continues to test support levels.

由於比特幣的MVRV為1.5，而短期持有人仍處於紅色狀態，許多以高價購買95,000美元的新移民可能會重新考慮其頭寸，尤其是當價格繼續測試支持水平時。

New traders, often influenced by media hype and speculation, are becoming more focused on short-term trends over long-term value, which could induce market turbulence.

通常受媒體炒作和投機性影響的新交易者越來越重視短期趨勢，而不是長期價值，這可能會引起市場動盪。

As Bitcoin struggles to maintain its upward momentum, the market could face increased volatility, particularly if the MVRV drops closer to 1.0, signaling a deeper decline and potentially a revisit of the $70,000 level.

隨著比特幣努力維持其上升勢頭，市場可能會面臨增加的波動性，尤其是如果MVRV接近1.0，這表明較深的下降幅度更深，並且可能重新訪問了70,000美元的水平。