ARK Invest 表示，比特币 (BTC) 的每月波动“在历史背景下并不显着”

比特币 (BTC) 价格在未能保持在 10 万美元以上后，在 12 月份经历了剧烈波动，但根据 ARK Invest 的说法，这种加密货币的走势并没有异常。

Bitcoin’s BTC price experienced sharp fluctuations in December after failing to hold above $100,000, but according to ARK Invest, the cryptocurrency’s movements weren’t out of the ordinary.

比特币价格在未能守住 10 万美元以上后，在 12 月份经历了剧烈波动，但根据 ARK Invest 的说法，这种加密货币的走势并没有异常。

ARK Invest’s “The Bitcoin Monthly” report for December compared BTC’s monthly and yearly realized volatility — a measure of how sharply an asset’s price fluctuates over a specific period. Although Bitcoin concluded Q4 with a spike in volatility, it “was not significant in historical context,” the report said.

ARK Invest 12 月份的“比特币月度”报告比较了 BTC 的月度和年度实际波动率——衡量资产价格在特定时期内波动程度的指标。报告称，尽管比特币第四季度的波动性大幅上升，但“在历史背景下并不显着”。

In an accompanying chart, ARK showed that Bitcoin’s monthly volatility in December was relatively low compared to its yearly volatility.

在随附的图表中，ARK 显示比特币 12 月份的月度波动性与其年度波动性相比相对较低。

Bitcoin’s monthly volatility (green line) was relatively tame compared to its annual volatility (purple line) in the fourth quarter. Source: ARK Low relative volatility implies that Bitcoin hasn’t yet reached the mania phase of its cycle, which means further upward momentum is likely, especially in a bull market.

与第四季度的年度波动性（紫线）相比，比特币的月度波动性（绿线）相对温和。资料来源：ARK 相对波动性较低意味着比特币尚未达到其周期的狂热阶段，这意味着可能会出现进一步的上涨势头，尤其是在牛市中。

“Indeed, these data points suggest room for further market expansion during 2025,” ARK's report said.

ARK 的报告称：“事实上，这些数据点表明 2025 年市场还有进一步扩张的空间。”

The report cited several other bullish indicators for Bitcoin in December, including mining difficulty, holder behavior and the short-term holder cost basis.

该报告引用了 12 月份比特币的其他几个看涨指标，包括挖矿难度、持有者行为和短期持有者成本基础。

On the topic of strong holder behavior, ARK's data showed that 62% of Bitcoin’s supply hasn't moved in more than a year, even as the asset recorded gains of more than 100% in 2024.

关于强势持有者行为，ARK 的数据显示，尽管该资产在 2024 年录得超过 100% 的涨幅，但 62% 的比特币供应量在一年多的时间里没有发生变化。

Anticipation builds ahead of Trump’s inauguration

特朗普就职典礼前的预期不断升温

Bitcoin’s price blasted through $100,000 in December after the election of Donald Trump, who promised to usher in a new era in crypto for the US.

唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 当选后，比特币价格在 12 月飙升至 10 万美元，特朗普承诺将开创美国加密货币的新时代。

During his presidential campaign, Trump vowed to make America the Bitcoin and crypto capital of the world.

在总统竞选期间，特朗普发誓要让美国成为世界比特币和加密货币之都。

Ahead of his inauguration, the president-elect selected pro-crypto Paul Atkins to head the critical Securities and Exchange Commission. A few days later, he appointed David Sacks as his top crypto and AI adviser. The crypto community largely supported the moves.

在就职典礼之前，当选总统选择了支持加密货币的保罗·阿特金斯 (Paul Atkins) 担任重要的证券交易委员会 (Securities and Exchange Commission) 的负责人。几天后，他任命大卫·萨克斯（David Sacks）为他的首席加密货币和人工智能顾问。加密货币社区很大程度上支持这些举措。

Pantera Capital expects Trump's presidency to further legitimize Bitcoin and crypto, driving prices to new all-time highs in the coming months.

Pantera Capital 预计特朗普的总统任期将进一步使比特币和加密货币合法化，在未来几个月内将价格推至历史新高。

According to a report by The Washington Post, Trump is expected to sign crypto-specific executive orders once he takes office on Jan. 20. These “day-one” executive orders are supposed to further clarify crypto’s priority for the upcoming administration.

据《华盛顿邮报》报道，特朗普预计将在 1 月 20 日上任后签署针对加密货币的行政命令。这些“第一天”的行政命令应该会进一步明确即将到来的政府对加密货币的优先考虑。