比特币（BTC）市场进入山寨币上涨的第二阶段，但面临相互矛盾的信号

由于多个指标指向不同的方向，加密货币市场面临着相互矛盾的信号。

Cryptocurrency markets faced conflicting signals on Friday, with multiple indicators pointing to different directions.

周五，加密货币市场面临相互矛盾的信号，多个指标指向不同的方向。

The Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score dropped near zero, indicating that large holders were either selling or pausing new purchases.

比特币积累趋势得分下降到接近于零，表明大量持有者正在出售或暂停新的购买。

This metric usually helps gauge market sentiment among substantial investors, and the current reading suggests caution at higher price levels.

该指标通常有助于衡量大量投资者的市场情绪，当前的数据表明对较高价格水平持谨慎态度。

Adding to the market uncertainty, a Bitcoin wallet that had been dormant for six years became active again, transferring 500 BTC (around $47 million at the time of writing) to Coinbase Prime.

雪上加霜的是，一个休眠了六年的比特币钱包再次活跃起来，将 500 个 BTC（在撰写本文时约为 4700 万美元）转移到 Coinbase Prime。

The wallet initially received these coins when Bitcoin traded at $7,000, representing a substantial profit at current prices.

当比特币交易价格为 7,000 美元时，钱包最初收到了这些代币，按当前价格计算，这意味着可观的利润。

Such movements from old wallets often precede increased market volatility.

旧钱包的此类变动通常先于市场波动加剧。

Economic Data, BTC Response

经济数据，BTC反应

The latest US Non-Farm Payrolls report showed that the country’s economy added 256,000 new jobs in December versus the predicted 164,000. The unemployment rate came in at 4.1%, better than the forecast 4.2%.

最新的美国非农就业报告显示，该国经济 12 月份新增就业岗位 256,000 个，而预期为 164,000 个。失业率为 4.1%，好于预期的 4.2%。

These numbers typically support asset prices, yet Bitcoin faced selling pressure after the release.

这些数字通常会支撑资产价格，但比特币在发布后面临抛售压力。

Analyst Karan Singh Arora attributes this disconnect to market manipulation rather than fundamental factors.

分析师卡兰·辛格·阿罗拉（Karan Singh Arora）将这种脱节归因于市场操纵，而不是基本面因素。

This jobs data creates an interesting dynamic for crypto markets. Strong employment numbers could lead the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates longer, potentially limiting crypto price gains.

这些就业数据为加密货币市场创造了有趣的动态。强劲的就业数据可能会导致美联储更长时间地维持较高的利率，从而可能限制加密货币价格的上涨。

However, the data also shows economic strength, which often supports risk assets like cryptocurrencies in the longer term.

然而，这些数据也显示了经济实力，从长远来看，这通常会支持加密货币等风险资产。

CryptoElites sees the market entering the second phase of a major altcoin rally. This view aligns with historical patterns where Bitcoin price stability creates conditions for altcoin growth.

CryptoElites 认为市场进入了山寨币大幅上涨的第二阶段。这种观点与比特币价格稳定为山寨币增长创造条件的历史模式相符。

The analyst emphasizes patience during this transition, noting how early sellers often miss the largest gains during altcoin cycles.

这位分析师强调了这一转变期间的耐心，并指出早期卖家往往会错过山寨币周期中的最大收益。

Trading Implications, Market Phases

交易影响、市场阶段

The current market setup requires careful positioning and risk management.

当前的市场格局需要谨慎的定位和风险管理。

With large Bitcoin holders pausing accumulation and old wallets becoming active, traders may face increased price swings.

随着大型比特币持有者暂停积累以及旧钱包变得活跃，交易者可能面临更大的价格波动。

These conditions often create opportunities in altcoins as capital rotates between different market sectors.

随着资本在不同市场领域之间流动，这些条件通常会为山寨币创造机会。

For risk management, several key price levels should be noted. Bitcoin needs to maintain support above recent lows to keep market confidence intact. A break below these levels could trigger broader market weakness.

对于风险管理，应注意几个关键的价格水平。比特币需要维持在近期低点之上的支撑，以保持市场信心完好。跌破这些水平可能会引发更广泛的市场疲软。

However, as long as Bitcoin holds its range, altcoins may continue their upward pattern regardless of short-term Bitcoin price moves.

然而，只要比特币保持在其区间内，无论短期比特币价格走势如何，山寨币都可能会继续其上涨模式。

The movement of old Bitcoin wallets offers perspective on market cycles. These early investors bought Bitcoin at $7,000, held through multiple cycles, and are now taking profits at $94,000.

旧比特币钱包的走势提供了对市场周期的看法。这些早期投资者以 7,000 美元的价格购买了比特币，并持有多个周期，现在以 94,000 美元的价格获利了结。

This pattern of long-term holders selling into strength typically marks mid-cycle periods rather than major tops, supporting the case for continued upside in 2025.

这种长期持有者强势抛售的模式通常标志着周期中期而非主要顶部，支持了 2025 年持续上涨的理由。