比特幣（BTC）市場進入山寨幣上漲的第二階段，但面臨相互矛盾的訊號

由於多個指標指向不同的方向，加密貨幣市場面臨相互矛盾的訊號。

Cryptocurrency markets faced conflicting signals on Friday, with multiple indicators pointing to different directions.

週五，加密貨幣市場面臨相互矛盾的訊號，多個指標指向不同的方向。

The Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score dropped near zero, indicating that large holders were either selling or pausing new purchases.

比特幣累積趨勢得分下降到接近零，表明大量持有者正在出售或暫停新的購買。

This metric usually helps gauge market sentiment among substantial investors, and the current reading suggests caution at higher price levels.

此指標通常有助於衡量大量投資者的市場情緒，目前的數據顯示對較高價格水平持謹慎態度。

Adding to the market uncertainty, a Bitcoin wallet that had been dormant for six years became active again, transferring 500 BTC (around $47 million at the time of writing) to Coinbase Prime.

雪上加霜的是，一個休眠了六年的比特幣錢包再次活躍起來，將 500 個 BTC（在撰寫本文時約為 4700 萬美元）轉移到 Coinbase Prime。

The wallet initially received these coins when Bitcoin traded at $7,000, representing a substantial profit at current prices.

當比特幣交易價格為 7,000 美元時，錢包最初收到了這些代幣，以當前價格計算，這意味著可觀的利潤。

Such movements from old wallets often precede increased market volatility.

舊錢包的此類變動通常先於市場波動加劇。

Economic Data, BTC Response

經濟數據，BTC反應

The latest US Non-Farm Payrolls report showed that the country’s economy added 256,000 new jobs in December versus the predicted 164,000. The unemployment rate came in at 4.1%, better than the forecast 4.2%.

最新的美國非農業就業報告顯示，該國經濟 12 月新增就業 256,000 個，而預期為 164,000 個。失業率為 4.1%，優於預期的 4.2%。

These numbers typically support asset prices, yet Bitcoin faced selling pressure after the release.

這些數字通常會支撐資產價格，但比特幣在發布後面臨拋售壓力。

Analyst Karan Singh Arora attributes this disconnect to market manipulation rather than fundamental factors.

分析師卡蘭辛格阿羅拉（Karan Singh Arora）將這種脫節歸因於市場操縱，而不是基本面因素。

This jobs data creates an interesting dynamic for crypto markets. Strong employment numbers could lead the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates longer, potentially limiting crypto price gains.

這些就業數據為加密貨幣市場創造了有趣的動態。強勁的就業數據可能會導緻聯準會更長時間地維持較高的利率，這可能會限制加密貨幣價格的上漲。

However, the data also shows economic strength, which often supports risk assets like cryptocurrencies in the longer term.

然而，這些數據也顯示了經濟實力，從長遠來看，這通常會支持加密貨幣等風險資產。

CryptoElites sees the market entering the second phase of a major altcoin rally. This view aligns with historical patterns where Bitcoin price stability creates conditions for altcoin growth.

CryptoElites 認為市場進入了山寨幣大幅上漲的第二階段。這種觀點與比特幣價格穩定為山寨幣成長創造條件的歷史模式相符。

The analyst emphasizes patience during this transition, noting how early sellers often miss the largest gains during altcoin cycles.

這位分析師強調了這一轉變期間的耐心，並指出早期賣家往往會錯過山寨幣週期中的最大收益。

Trading Implications, Market Phases

交易影響、市場階段

The current market setup requires careful positioning and risk management.

目前的市場格局需要謹慎的定位和風險管理。

With large Bitcoin holders pausing accumulation and old wallets becoming active, traders may face increased price swings.

隨著大型比特幣持有者暫停累積以及舊錢包變得活躍，交易者可能面臨更大的價格波動。

These conditions often create opportunities in altcoins as capital rotates between different market sectors.

隨著資本在不同市場領域之間流動，這些條件通常會為山寨幣創造機會。

For risk management, several key price levels should be noted. Bitcoin needs to maintain support above recent lows to keep market confidence intact. A break below these levels could trigger broader market weakness.

對於風險管理，應注意幾個關鍵的價格水準。比特幣需要維持在近期低點之上的支撐，以保持市場信心完好。跌破這些水平可能會引發更廣泛的市場疲軟。

However, as long as Bitcoin holds its range, altcoins may continue their upward pattern regardless of short-term Bitcoin price moves.

然而，只要比特幣維持在其區間內，無論短期比特幣價格走勢如何，山寨幣都可能會繼續其上漲模式。

The movement of old Bitcoin wallets offers perspective on market cycles. These early investors bought Bitcoin at $7,000, held through multiple cycles, and are now taking profits at $94,000.

舊比特幣錢包的走勢提供了對市場週期的看法。這些早期投資者以 7,000 美元的價格購買了比特幣，並持有多個週期，現在以 94,000 美元的價格獲利了結。

This pattern of long-term holders selling into strength typically marks mid-cycle periods rather than major tops, supporting the case for continued upside in 2025.

這種長期持有者強勢拋售的模式通常標誌著週期中期而非主要頂部，支持了 2025 年持續上漲的理由。