比特币 (BTC) 市场调整：链上指标揭示了牛市周期的哪些内容

比特币市场在最近飙升至 108000 美元以上后，最近几周经历了一个调整阶段。这种下跌导致投资者越来越担心市场是否正在进入漫长的冷静期，或者这次调整是否意味着牛市周期的结束。

Bitcoin market has been experiencing a phase of correction in recent weeks following its recent surge beyond $108,000. This decline has led to growing concerns among investors about whether the market is entering a prolonged cooling-off period or if this correction signifies the end of the bull cycle.

比特币市场在最近飙升至 108,000 美元以上后，最近几周经历了一个调整阶段。这种下跌导致投资者越来越担心市场是否正在进入漫长的冷静期，或者这次调整是否意味着牛市周期的结束。

However, historically, such phases have been common in Bitcoin’s market cycles, often followed by periods of renewed upward momentum. Analysts are now turning to key on-chain metrics to provide insights into the current phase and its implications for Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

然而，从历史上看，这种阶段在比特币的市场周期中很常见，随后往往会出现新的上升势头。分析师现在正在转向关键的链上指标，以深入了解当前阶段及其对比特币价格轨迹的影响。

The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly Of Bitcoin’s Recent Price Action, According To On-Chain Analysis

根据链上分析，比特币近期价格走势的好、坏和丑陋

The market remains within a broader bull cycle, according to a recent analysis by a CryptoQuant analyst known as Avocado Onchain. Using on-chain indicators such as the Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), Miner Position Index (MPI), and funding rates, the analyst outlined the current state of Bitcoin.

根据 CryptoQuant 分析师 Avocado Onchain 最近的分析，市场仍处于更广泛的牛市周期内。使用调整后支出产出利润率（SOPR）、矿工头寸指数（MPI）和融资利率等链上指标，分析师概述了比特币的当前状态。

“Bitcoin is still in a bull market judging by the key on-chain indicators,” the analyst stated.

“从关键的链上指标来看，比特币仍处于牛市，”该分析师表示。

The SOPR (7-day Simple Moving Average) remains above 1 but is trending downward, indicating reduced profit margins for sellers. This metric often acts as an early signal of market sentiment shifts, with drops below 1 historically triggering rebounds as selling pressure subsides.

SOPR（7 天简单移动平均线）仍高于 1，但呈下降趋势，表明卖家的利润率下降。该指标通常是市场情绪转变的早期信号，历史上当卖压消退时，跌破 1 会引发反弹。

“SOPR is still trending down, indicating lower seller margins. Drops below 1 usually lead to market recoveries as selling pressure gets absorbed.”

“SOPR 仍呈下降趋势，表明卖家利润率较低。随着抛售压力被吸收，跌破 1 通常会导致市场复苏。”

The report further analyzed Bitcoin’s Miner Position Index (MPI). This index measures miner behavior, particularly their tendency to sell Bitcoin in anticipation of significant market events, such as halving cycles or peak price levels.

该报告进一步分析了比特币的矿工头寸指数（MPI）。该指数衡量矿工的行为，特别是他们在预期重大市场事件（例如减半周期或峰值价格水平）时出售比特币的倾向。

“Miners are still not selling into the market heavily. Large mining operations tend to sell in smaller intervals to cover operational costs, even in bull markets. However, the MPI shows no large outflows from miners to exchanges.”

“矿商仍未大量向市场抛售。即使在牛市中，大型采矿业务往往会以较小的间隔出售以弥补运营成本。然而，MPI 显示没有大量资金从矿工流向交易所。”

Avocado added that this indicates confidence in the long-term value of Bitcoin, even as short-term volatility persists.

鳄梨补充说，这表明即使短期波动持续存在，人们仍然对比特币的长期价值充满信心。

Another important indicator highlighted by the CryptoQuant analyst is total network fees, measured using a 7-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This metric reflects transaction activity and overall on-chain engagement.

CryptoQuant 分析师强调的另一个重要指标是总网络费用，使用 7 天简单移动平均线 (SMA) 衡量。该指标反映了交易活动和整体链上参与度。

“Transaction activity seems to be cooling off for now. The 7-day SMA of total network fees is down significantly from the recent highs. Such periods of lower transaction activity have historically preceded periods of renewed bullish momentum, especially when other indicators also support this trend.”

“交易活动目前似乎正在降温。网络总费用的 7 天 SMA 较近期高点大幅下降。从历史上看，这种交易活动较低的时期通常先于新的看涨势头时期，特别是当其他指标也支持这一趋势时。”

Finally, the analysis touches upon Bitcoin funding rates and their implications for market sentiment and short-term price movements.

最后，分析涉及比特币融资利率及其对市场情绪和短期价格走势的影响。

“Funding rates have shown drops from recent highs. These drops usually indicate increasing pessimism among short-term traders or market participants engaging in leverage. Historically, during bull cycles, sharp drops in funding rates have been followed by short-term market recoveries as pessimism reaches an extreme point and buyers return to the market.”

“融资利率已从近期高点下降。这些下跌通常表明短期交易者或参与杠杆的市场参与者的悲观情绪日益增加。从历史上看，在牛市周期中，随着悲观情绪达到极点，买家重返市场，融资利率急剧下降后会出现短期市场复苏。”

The recent drops in funding rates, combined with other on-chain indicators, could present buying opportunities for long-term investors, especially during periods of heightened market pessimism, as suggested by the analysis.

正如分析所示，近期融资利率的下降，加上其他链上指标，可能为长期投资者带来买入机会，尤其是在市场悲观情绪加剧期间。