比特币（BTC 3.49％）投资者在2024年被带走了

去年始于比特币崛起的关键发展：批准比特币交易所交易基金（ETFS）。

Bitcoin (BTC 3.49%) investors were taken on quite a ride in 2024. The cryptocurrency more than doubled in under a year, smashing past previous all-time highs to finally surpass $100,000, a milestone few could dream of just a decade before. The historic rise was driven in large part by a major shift in investor sentiment: More and more, Bitcoin is seen as a legitimate part of a well-balanced portfolio.

比特币（BTC 3.49％）的投资者在2024年获得了相当多的旅程。加密货币在一年不到一年的时间内翻了一番以上，使过去的历史高点粉碎到最终超过100,000美元，这是一个十年前的里程碑。历史上的崛起在很大程度上是由投资者情绪的重大转变所驱动的：越来越多的比特币被视为均衡投资组合的合法部分。

So, with the crypto now having retreated not just below the six-figure mark, but below $90,000, is now the time to invest?

因此，由于加密货币的撤退不仅低于六位数标记，而且低于90,000美元，现在是时候进行投资了吗？

Institutions pile in

机构堆积

Last year began with a crucial development in Bitcoin's ascendance: the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). In January, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) gave the green light to asset managers like Blackrock to issue ETFs that track the movement of Bitcoin's price, the shares of which can be bought and sold through traditional brokers in the same way you might trade shares of Apple.

去年始于比特币崛起的关键发展：批准比特币交易所交易基金（ETFS）。一月份，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）（SEC）向像贝莱德这样的资产经理提供了绿灯，以发行跟踪比特币价格转移的ETF，其股票可以通过传统经纪人以您可能交易的苹果公司的方式买卖。

The ETFs bring enhanced liquidity and remove logistical and security challenges associated with holding Bitcoin directly, all qualities that institutional investors like to see before investing in an asset -- and invest they did. Upon approval, money flooded in and continued all year. As of the third quarter of 2024, institutional investors have just over $26 billion invested, representing 25.4% of the total assets under management (AUM) of all spot Bitcoin ETFs.

ETF带来了增强的流动性，并消除了直接持有比特币相关的后勤和安全挑战，这是机构投资者在投资资产之前喜欢看到的所有品质 - 并投资了他们所做的。批准后，钱被淹没并全年持续。截至2024年第三季度，机构投资者的投资刚刚超过260亿美元，占所有现货比特币ETF的管理总资产（AUM）的25.4％。

This marks a radical shift from years past; it wasn't long ago that most fund managers wouldn't go near Bitcoin. Indeed, many derided the cryptocurrency as a fad at best or a fraud at worst.

这标志着过去几年的根本转变。不久前，大多数基金经理都不会接近比特币。确实，许多人充其量将加密货币视为一种时尚或最坏的欺诈行为。

Blackrock is the perfect example

贝莱德是一个完美的例子

There's probably no better illustration of this change of heart than Blackrock itself -- or rather, its legendary CEO, Larry Fink. During the bull run of 2017, Fink declared that Bitcoin held little value other than to facilitate crime, saying "Bitcoin just shows you how much demand for money laundering there is in the world."

这种变化可能没有比贝莱德本身更好的说明了，或者是其传奇的首席执行官拉里·芬克（Larry Fink）。在2017年的公牛比赛中，芬克宣布，比特币具有促进犯罪的价值几乎没有其他价值，他说：“比特币向您展示了世界上对洗钱的需求。”

Fast forward to today and it's clear Fink has changed his tune. Not only does he oversee the largest spot Bitcoin ETF in the market, Fink recently told attendees of the World Economic Forum that Bitcoin is a "secure international currency" capable of reaching $700,000.

快进到今天，很明显，芬克改变了他的曲调。 Fink最近告诉世界经济论坛的参与者，比特币是一种“安全的国际货币”，能够达到70万美元。

Fink's prediction of $700,000 rests on the same logic that leads Ark Investment Management CEO Cathie Wood to similar conclusions: An average of a 2% or so allocation to Bitcoin from fund managers across the globe would be sufficient for it to reach these heights. Given the accelerating shift in institutional attitudes, this doesn't appear to be out of the question by any means. Still, there's certainly no guarantee. Bitcoin continues to be seen as too risky by many more conservative investors.

芬克（Fink）对70万美元的预测基于与ARK Investment Management首席执行官Cathie Wood相同的逻辑，得出了类似的结论：全球基金经理向比特币分配了2％左右，就足以达到这些高度。鉴于机构态度的加速转变，这似乎并不是任何问题。尽管如此，当然也不能保证。许多保守的投资者仍然认为比特币仍然被认为太冒险了。

Political sea change

政治海变

While much of this shift in sentiment preceded the election of President Donald Trump, the new administration represents a monumental change in how Bitcoin will be treated by regulators and the government at large. Where the Biden administration was suspicious of the industry and often took a hawkish approach to regulating it, the Trump administration appears to be taking the opposite tack, promising to make America the "crypto capital of the planet."

尽管在唐纳德·特朗普总统当选之前，这种情绪的大部分转变代表了监管机构和整个政府对比特币将如何对待比特币的巨大变化。在拜登政府对该行业怀疑并经常采取鹰派方法来监管它的地方，特朗普政府似乎正在采取相反的策略，并承诺使美国成为“地球的加密之都”。

One of the most substantial moves early on is to replace former SEC chair Gary Gensler with the decidedly pro-crypto Paul Atkins. Atkins still needs to be confirmed by the Senate and has yet to take the reins, but his probable tenure will likely be marked by a hands-off approach to the crypto market.

早期最重要的举动之一就是将前SEC主席Gary Gensler替换为绝对支持的保罗·阿特金斯（Paul Atkins）。阿特金斯仍然需要得到参议院的确认，尚未掌权，但他的可能任期很可能会以对加密货币市场的开发方法为标志。

Is now the time?

现在是时候了吗？

With its growing legitimacy in the eyes of more and more institutional investors and a more favorable regulatory environment ahead, now may seem like the perfect time to invest. I think it's a bit more complicated. The truth is, the overall economic picture is shaky at the moment and although Bitcoin is more ingrained in the financial mainstream than ever before, it is still seen as a "risk-on" asset, meaning it will have an outsize response to a market downturn. We're already seeing this play out somewhat in the face of current uncertainty.

随着越来越多的机构投资者的合法性以及未来的更有利的监管环境的合法性，现在似乎是投资的绝佳时机。我认为这更复杂。事实是，目前的整体经济状况却摇摇欲坠，尽管比特币比以往任何时候都更加根深蒂固，但它仍然被视为“风险货入”资产，这意味着它将对市场下跌的反应产生巨大的反应。面对当前的不确定性，我们已经看到了一些播放。

That being said, it's important to invest for the long term, and attempting to time the market is rarely a successful endeavor. Even if there is more downside in the short term, I think buying Bitcoin (BTC) under $90,000 will look like a bargain five years from now. However, if you are nearing retirement or otherwise have a low risk tolerance, there are safer places to allocate funds.

话虽如此，长期投资很重要，试图为市场计时而很少成功。即使短期内有更多的缺点，我认为从现在起五年后购买比特币（BTC）90,000美元以下的价格也将看起来像便宜货。但是，如果您要接近退休或以其他方式具有低风险承受能力，则可以分配资金更安全。