比特幣（BTC 3.49％）投資者在2024年被帶走了

去年始於比特幣崛起的關鍵發展：批准比特幣交易所交易基金（ETFS）。

Bitcoin (BTC 3.49%) investors were taken on quite a ride in 2024. The cryptocurrency more than doubled in under a year, smashing past previous all-time highs to finally surpass $100,000, a milestone few could dream of just a decade before. The historic rise was driven in large part by a major shift in investor sentiment: More and more, Bitcoin is seen as a legitimate part of a well-balanced portfolio.

比特幣（BTC 3.49％）的投資者在2024年獲得了相當多的旅程。加密貨幣在一年不到一年的時間內翻了一番以上，使過去的歷史高點粉碎到最終超過100,000美元，這是一個十年前的里程碑。歷史上的崛起在很大程度上是由投資者情緒的重大轉變所驅動的：越來越多的比特幣被視為均衡投資組合的合法部分。

So, with the crypto now having retreated not just below the six-figure mark, but below $90,000, is now the time to invest?

因此，由於加密貨幣的撤退不僅低於六位數標記，而且低於90,000美元，現在是時候進行投資了嗎？

Institutions pile in

機構堆積

Last year began with a crucial development in Bitcoin's ascendance: the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). In January, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) gave the green light to asset managers like Blackrock to issue ETFs that track the movement of Bitcoin's price, the shares of which can be bought and sold through traditional brokers in the same way you might trade shares of Apple.

去年始於比特幣崛起的關鍵發展：批准比特幣交易所交易基金（ETFS）。一月份，美國證券交易委員會（SEC）（SEC）向像貝萊德這樣的資產經理提供了綠燈，以發行跟踪比特幣價格轉移的ETF，其股票可以通過傳統經紀人以您可能交易的蘋果公司的方式買賣。

The ETFs bring enhanced liquidity and remove logistical and security challenges associated with holding Bitcoin directly, all qualities that institutional investors like to see before investing in an asset -- and invest they did. Upon approval, money flooded in and continued all year. As of the third quarter of 2024, institutional investors have just over $26 billion invested, representing 25.4% of the total assets under management (AUM) of all spot Bitcoin ETFs.

ETF帶來了增強的流動性，並消除了直接持有比特幣相關的後勤和安全挑戰，這是機構投資者在投資資產之前喜歡看到的所有品質 - 並投資了他們所做的。批准後，錢被淹沒並全年持續。截至2024年第三季度，機構投資者的投資剛剛超過260億美元，佔所有現貨比特幣ETF的管理總資產（AUM）的25.4％。

This marks a radical shift from years past; it wasn't long ago that most fund managers wouldn't go near Bitcoin. Indeed, many derided the cryptocurrency as a fad at best or a fraud at worst.

這標誌著過去幾年的根本轉變。不久前，大多數基金經理都不會接近比特幣。確實，許多人充其量將加密貨幣視為一種時尚或最壞的欺詐行為。

Blackrock is the perfect example

貝萊德是一個完美的例子

There's probably no better illustration of this change of heart than Blackrock itself -- or rather, its legendary CEO, Larry Fink. During the bull run of 2017, Fink declared that Bitcoin held little value other than to facilitate crime, saying "Bitcoin just shows you how much demand for money laundering there is in the world."

這種變化可能沒有比貝萊德本身更好的說明了，或者是其傳奇的首席執行官拉里·芬克（Larry Fink）。在2017年的公牛比賽中，芬克宣布，比特幣具有促進犯罪的價值幾乎沒有其他價值，他說：“比特幣向您展示了世界上對洗錢的需求。”

Fast forward to today and it's clear Fink has changed his tune. Not only does he oversee the largest spot Bitcoin ETF in the market, Fink recently told attendees of the World Economic Forum that Bitcoin is a "secure international currency" capable of reaching $700,000.

快進到今天，很明顯，芬克改變了他的曲調。 Fink最近告訴世界經濟論壇的參與者，比特幣是一種“安全的國際貨幣”，能夠達到70萬美元。

Fink's prediction of $700,000 rests on the same logic that leads Ark Investment Management CEO Cathie Wood to similar conclusions: An average of a 2% or so allocation to Bitcoin from fund managers across the globe would be sufficient for it to reach these heights. Given the accelerating shift in institutional attitudes, this doesn't appear to be out of the question by any means. Still, there's certainly no guarantee. Bitcoin continues to be seen as too risky by many more conservative investors.

芬克（Fink）對70萬美元的預測基於與ARK Investment Management首席執行官Cathie Wood相同的邏輯，得出了類似的結論：全球基金經理向比特幣分配了2％左右，就足以達到這些高度。鑑於機構態度的加速轉變，這似乎並不是任何問題。儘管如此，當然也不能保證。許多保守的投資者仍然認為比特幣仍然被認為太冒險了。

Political sea change

政治海變

While much of this shift in sentiment preceded the election of President Donald Trump, the new administration represents a monumental change in how Bitcoin will be treated by regulators and the government at large. Where the Biden administration was suspicious of the industry and often took a hawkish approach to regulating it, the Trump administration appears to be taking the opposite tack, promising to make America the "crypto capital of the planet."

儘管在唐納德·特朗普總統當選之前，這種情緒的大部分轉變代表了監管機構和整個政府對比特幣將如何對待比特幣的巨大變化。在拜登政府對該行業懷疑並經常採取鷹派方法來監管它的地方，特朗普政府似乎正在採取相反的策略，並承諾使美國成為“地球的加密之都”。

One of the most substantial moves early on is to replace former SEC chair Gary Gensler with the decidedly pro-crypto Paul Atkins. Atkins still needs to be confirmed by the Senate and has yet to take the reins, but his probable tenure will likely be marked by a hands-off approach to the crypto market.

早期最重要的舉動之一就是將前SEC主席Gary Gensler替換為絕對支持的保羅·阿特金斯（Paul Atkins）。阿特金斯仍然需要得到參議院的確認，尚未掌權，但他的可能任期很可能會以對加密貨幣市場的開發方法為標誌。

Is now the time?

現在是時候了嗎？

With its growing legitimacy in the eyes of more and more institutional investors and a more favorable regulatory environment ahead, now may seem like the perfect time to invest. I think it's a bit more complicated. The truth is, the overall economic picture is shaky at the moment and although Bitcoin is more ingrained in the financial mainstream than ever before, it is still seen as a "risk-on" asset, meaning it will have an outsize response to a market downturn. We're already seeing this play out somewhat in the face of current uncertainty.

隨著越來越多的機構投資者的合法性以及未來的更有利的監管環境的合法性，現在似乎是投資的絕佳時機。我認為這更複雜。事實是，目前的整體經濟狀況卻搖搖欲墜，儘管比特幣比以往任何時候都更加根深蒂固，但它仍然被視為“風險貨入”資產，這意味著它將對市場下跌的反應產生巨大的反應。面對當前的不確定性，我們已經看到了一些播放。

That being said, it's important to invest for the long term, and attempting to time the market is rarely a successful endeavor. Even if there is more downside in the short term, I think buying Bitcoin (BTC) under $90,000 will look like a bargain five years from now. However, if you are nearing retirement or otherwise have a low risk tolerance, there are safer places to allocate funds.

話雖如此，長期投資很重要，試圖為市場計時而很少成功。即使短期內有更多的缺點，我認為從現在起五年後購買比特幣（BTC）90,000美元以下的價格也將看起來像便宜貨。但是，如果您要接近退休或以其他方式具有低風險承受能力，則可以分配資金更安全。