比特币（BTC）在其最大的年度反弹之一中逐步接近 10 万美元的里程碑

这一次，很多散户错过了牛市。

Retail investors only partially benefitted from the biggest bull run in Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) history.

散户投资者仅部分受益于比特币（CRYPTO：BTC）历史上最大的牛市。

As the coin peaked to new highs above $98,500, the rally was led by the influence of whales.

当代币触及 98,500 美元以上的新高时，涨势受到鲸鱼的影响。

Retail holders only partially benefitted from the rally, as the number of small-scale wallets diminished in 2024.

由于小规模钱包的数量在 2024 年减少，散户持有者仅从涨势中部分受益。

The most numerous type of address, holding between $1 and $1,000 of BTC, diminished since the end of August.

持有 1 美元到 1,000 美元 BTC 的地址数量最多，自 8 月底以来有所减少。

Those retail addresses reached 44.2 million just before the market crashed in August.

就在 8 月份市场崩盘之前，这些零售地址达到了 4420 万个。

Over time, these traders capitulated, after months of sideways trading with increased volatility.

随着时间的推移，经过数月的横向交易且波动性加大，这些交易者最终屈服了。

Retail wallet count diminishes as ETF takes over

随着 ETF 接管，零售钱包数量减少

As of November, the number of small-scale retail addresses is down to 42.99 million.

截至11月，小规模零售地址数量下降至4299万个。

A total of 15,986 wallet holders sold their stash of under 1 BTC at a much lower price.

共有 15,986 名钱包持有者以低得多的价格出售了不到 1 BTC 的藏品。

The cohort owning 1-10 BTC decreased by 46,915 wallets, while another 114,034 wallets sold between 10 and 100 BTC.

拥有 1-10 BTC 的群体减少了 46,915 个钱包，另有 114,034 个钱包出售了 10 到 100 BTC。

After a protracted bear market, older retail wallets may have also capitulated, as BTC dipped to lows of $18,000.

在经历了漫长的熊市之后，随着 BTC 跌至 18,000 美元的低点，较旧的零售钱包可能也会屈服。

In 2024, BTC held above $40,000, yet retail holders liquidated at much lower prices.

2024 年，BTC 维持在 40,000 美元以上，但散户持有者以低得多的价格清算。

One possible explanation for the low count of retail wallets is that new buyers may be going through the newly launched ETF.

零售钱包数量较少的一种可能解释是，新买家可能正在购买新推出的 ETF。

The ETF relies on Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) Custody, and is a solution for those that do not want to use a self-custodial wallet.

该 ETF 依赖于 Coinbase（纳斯达克股票代码：COIN）托管，对于那些不想使用自我托管钱包的人来说是一个解决方案。

Risk of loss and the need to learn wallet usage may be steering a new wave of retailers to owning BTC through a fund.

损失风险和学习钱包使用的需要可能会引导新一波零售商通过基金持有比特币。

Others may be holding BTC through exchanges, once again skewing the statistics.

其他人可能通过交易所持有比特币，这再次扭曲了统计数据。

The buyers included wallet holders with over 100 BTC. In 2024, whale wallets increased to a record, with strong demand from ETF and corporate buyers.

买家包括持有超过 100 BTC 的钱包持有者。 2024 年，随着 ETF 和企业买家的强劲需求，鲸鱼钱包数量创历史新高。

The series of large-scale buys from MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) led to other corporations stating their goals to increase BTC holdings.

MicroStrategy（纳斯达克股票代码：MSTR）的一系列大规模购买导致其他公司宣布了增加比特币持有量的目标。

In addition to public purchases, whale accumulation continued silently for months.

除了公共购买之外，鲸鱼的积累也悄然持续了数月。

Retail traders were warned that the market shakedowns would transfer the coins to even bigger buyers.

零售交易商被警告称，市场动荡会将代币转移给更大的买家。

With BTC in the hands of whales, price action may shift as those companies believe BTC can trade at an even larger scale.

随着 BTC 落入鲸鱼手中，价格走势可能会发生变化，因为这些公司相信 BTC 可以进行更大规模的交易。

At the current stage, where BTC is just a 1.5% rally away from $100,000, both smart money and retail are showing bullish sentiment.

目前阶段，比特币距离 10 万美元仅上涨 1.5%，精明投资者和散户都表现出看涨情绪。

However, in the past months, crowd sentiment was more bearish, and some holders realized gains at a lower price.

然而，在过去的几个月里，人群情绪更加看跌，一些持有者以较低的价格实现了收益。

Volatility and drawdowns convinced retail holders to sell, despite warnings that their coins would be held by whales, appreciating to a new price level.

尽管有警告称他们的代币将被鲸鱼持有，但波动性和回撤仍说服散户抛售，并升值至新的价格水平。

Among older holders, the cohort with wallets aged 5-7 years was among the most active sellers in the past month.

在年龄较大的持有者中，钱包年龄在 5-7 岁的群体是过去一个月最活跃的卖家之一。

Older whales did not move their coins, despite the occasional transfer from early miner wallets.

尽管偶尔会从早期矿工的钱包中转移，但较老的鲸鱼并没有转移他们的硬币。

However, that amount of selling was not enough to stall the BTC rally.

然而，如此大量的抛售并不足以阻止比特币的上涨。

Is BTC experiencing a supply shock?

BTC正在经历供应冲击吗？

BTC exchange reserves have been declining in 2024, as whales withdrew coins to more secure wallets.

2024 年，随着鲸鱼将代币提取到更安全的钱包中，BTC 交易储备一直在下降。

The supply of BTC on exchanges is at a six-year low, with a steady decline since January.

交易所的比特币供应量处于六年来的最低点，自一月份以来一直在稳步下降。

Centralized markets hold a total of 2.3 million BTC, pointing to more dedicated holders preparing to hold for an even longer time horizon.

中心化市场总共持有 230 万枚 BTC，这表明更多的专注持有者准备持有更长的时间。

The supply of BTC on exchanges usually increases during a bull run, as a preparation for selling.

交易所上的比特币供应量通常会在牛市期间增加，作为抛售的准备。

However, this bull run has shown a different strategy, as accumulation occurs even at near-record prices.

然而，这次牛市表现出了不同的策略，因为即使在接近历史最高价的情况下也会出现积累。

Additionally, an estimated 4 million BTC are held for the long term, or possibly lost.

此外，估计有 400 万比特币被长期持有，或者可能丢失。

This includes the initial mined coins of Satoshi Nakamoto. Miners hold an extra 2 million BTC even after selling.

这包括中本聪最初开采的代币。即使在出售后，矿工仍持有额外 200 万比特币。

Overall, the supply of 19.7 million BTC is not readily available.

总体而言，1970万比特币的供应并不容易获得。

BlackRock (NYSE:BLK), after months of net buying and accumulation, holds 449,965 BTC with the potential to take more coins off the market.

贝莱德（NYSE：BLK）经过数月的净买入和积累，持有 449,965 BTC，有可能从市场上吸走更多比特币。

Actually holding self-custodied BTC is becoming even more rare and risky.

事实上，持有自我托管的比特币正变得更加罕见和危险。

BTC on-chain transactions are also slowing down, as the coin is used for reserves and long-term holding.

比特币的链上交易也在放缓，因为比特币被用于储备和长期持有。