比特幣（BTC）在其最大的年度反彈之一中逐步接近 10 萬美元的里程碑

這一次，很多散戶錯過了多頭市場。

Retail investors only partially benefitted from the biggest bull run in Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) history.

散戶僅部分受惠於比特幣（CRYPTO：BTC）史上最大的牛市。

As the coin peaked to new highs above $98,500, the rally was led by the influence of whales.

當代幣觸及 98,500 美元以上的新高時，漲勢受到鯨魚的影響。

Retail holders only partially benefitted from the rally, as the number of small-scale wallets diminished in 2024.

由於小規模錢包的數量在 2024 年減少，散戶持有者僅從漲勢中部分受益。

The most numerous type of address, holding between $1 and $1,000 of BTC, diminished since the end of August.

持有 1 美元到 1,000 美元 BTC 的地址數量最多，自 8 月底以來有所減少。

Those retail addresses reached 44.2 million just before the market crashed in August.

就在 8 月市場崩盤之前，這些零售地址達到了 4,420 萬個。

Over time, these traders capitulated, after months of sideways trading with increased volatility.

隨著時間的推移，經過數月的橫向交易且波動性加大，這些交易者最終屈服了。

Retail wallet count diminishes as ETF takes over

隨著 ETF 接管，零售錢包數量減少

As of November, the number of small-scale retail addresses is down to 42.99 million.

截至11月，小規模零售地址數量下降至4,299萬個。

A total of 15,986 wallet holders sold their stash of under 1 BTC at a much lower price.

共有 15,986 名錢包持有者以低得多的價格出售了不到 1 BTC 的藏品。

The cohort owning 1-10 BTC decreased by 46,915 wallets, while another 114,034 wallets sold between 10 and 100 BTC.

擁有 1-10 BTC 的群體減少了 46,915 個錢包，另有 114,034 個錢包出售了 10 到 100 BTC。

After a protracted bear market, older retail wallets may have also capitulated, as BTC dipped to lows of $18,000.

在經歷了漫長的熊市之後，隨著 BTC 跌至 18,000 美元的低點，較舊的零售錢包可能也會屈服。

In 2024, BTC held above $40,000, yet retail holders liquidated at much lower prices.

2024 年，BTC 維持在 4 萬美元以上，但散戶持有者以更低的價格清算。

One possible explanation for the low count of retail wallets is that new buyers may be going through the newly launched ETF.

零售錢包數量較少的一種可能解釋是，新買家可能正在購買新推出的 ETF。

The ETF relies on Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) Custody, and is a solution for those that do not want to use a self-custodial wallet.

該 ETF 依賴 Coinbase（納斯達克股票代碼：COIN）託管，對於不想使用自我託管錢包的人來說是一個解決方案。

Risk of loss and the need to learn wallet usage may be steering a new wave of retailers to owning BTC through a fund.

損失風險和學習錢包使用的需要可能會引導新一波零售商透過基金持有比特幣。

Others may be holding BTC through exchanges, once again skewing the statistics.

其他人可能透過交易所持有比特幣，這再次扭曲了統計數據。

The buyers included wallet holders with over 100 BTC. In 2024, whale wallets increased to a record, with strong demand from ETF and corporate buyers.

買家包括持有超過 100 BTC 的錢包持有者。 2024 年，隨著 ETF 和企業買家的強勁需求，鯨魚錢包數量創歷史新高。

The series of large-scale buys from MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) led to other corporations stating their goals to increase BTC holdings.

MicroStrategy（納斯達克股票代碼：MSTR）的一系列大規模購買導致其他公司宣布了增加比特幣持有量的目標。

In addition to public purchases, whale accumulation continued silently for months.

除了公共購買之外，鯨魚的累積也悄悄持續了數月。

Retail traders were warned that the market shakedowns would transfer the coins to even bigger buyers.

零售交易商被警告稱，市場動盪將代幣轉移給更大的買家。

With BTC in the hands of whales, price action may shift as those companies believe BTC can trade at an even larger scale.

隨著 BTC 落入鯨魚手中，價格走勢可能會發生變化，因為這些公司相信 BTC 可以進行更大規模的交易。

At the current stage, where BTC is just a 1.5% rally away from $100,000, both smart money and retail are showing bullish sentiment.

目前階段，比特幣距離 10 萬美元僅上漲 1.5%，精明投資者和散戶都表現出看漲情緒。

However, in the past months, crowd sentiment was more bearish, and some holders realized gains at a lower price.

然而，在過去的幾個月裡，人群情緒更加悲觀，一些持有者以較低的價格實現了收益。

Volatility and drawdowns convinced retail holders to sell, despite warnings that their coins would be held by whales, appreciating to a new price level.

儘管有警告他們的代幣將被鯨魚持有，但波動性和回撤仍說服散戶拋售，並升值至新的價格水平。

Among older holders, the cohort with wallets aged 5-7 years was among the most active sellers in the past month.

在年齡較大的持有者中，錢包年齡在 5-7 歲的群體是過去一個月最活躍的賣家之一。

Older whales did not move their coins, despite the occasional transfer from early miner wallets.

儘管偶爾會從早期礦工的錢包中轉移，但較老的鯨魚並沒有轉移他們的硬幣。

However, that amount of selling was not enough to stall the BTC rally.

然而，如此大量的拋售並不足以阻止比特幣的上漲。

Is BTC experiencing a supply shock?

BTC正在經歷供應衝擊嗎？

BTC exchange reserves have been declining in 2024, as whales withdrew coins to more secure wallets.

2024 年，隨著鯨魚將代幣提取到更安全的錢包中，BTC 交易儲備一直在下降。

The supply of BTC on exchanges is at a six-year low, with a steady decline since January.

交易所的比特幣供應量處於六年來的最低點，自一月以來一直在穩步下降。

Centralized markets hold a total of 2.3 million BTC, pointing to more dedicated holders preparing to hold for an even longer time horizon.

中心化市場總共持有 230 萬枚 BTC，這表明更多的專注持有者準備持有更長的時間。

The supply of BTC on exchanges usually increases during a bull run, as a preparation for selling.

交易所上的比特幣供應量通常會在牛市期間增加，作為拋售的準備。

However, this bull run has shown a different strategy, as accumulation occurs even at near-record prices.

然而，這次多頭市場表現出了不同的策略，因為即使在接近歷史最高價的情況下也會出現累積。

Additionally, an estimated 4 million BTC are held for the long term, or possibly lost.

此外，估計有 400 萬比特幣被長期持有，或可能丟失。

This includes the initial mined coins of Satoshi Nakamoto. Miners hold an extra 2 million BTC even after selling.

這包括中本聰最初開采的代幣。即使在出售後，礦工仍持有額外 200 萬比特幣。

Overall, the supply of 19.7 million BTC is not readily available.

整體而言，1970萬比特幣的供應並不容易取得。

BlackRock (NYSE:BLK), after months of net buying and accumulation, holds 449,965 BTC with the potential to take more coins off the market.

貝萊德（NYSE：BLK）經過數月的淨買入和積累，持有 449,965 BTC，有可能從市場上吸走更多比特幣。

Actually holding self-custodied BTC is becoming even more rare and risky.

事實上，持有自我託管的比特幣正變得更加罕見和危險。

BTC on-chain transactions are also slowing down, as the coin is used for reserves and long-term holding.

比特幣的鏈上交易也在放緩，因為比特幣被用於儲備和長期持有。