比特币（BTC）在FOMC公告之前徘徊在$ 83K

比特币目前处于至关重要的十字路口，测试了可以决定下一个大动作的钥匙阻力水平。从历史上看，当比特币在牛市中面临这些水平时

Bitcoin is currently at a crucial crossroads, testing key resistance levels that could determine the next big move.

比特币目前处于至关重要的十字路口，测试了可以决定下一个大动作的钥匙阻力水平。

Many traders are fearing a market crash if the Fed hints at keeping interest rates high for a longer period. However, in a latest X post, Lark Dewis, a Bitcoin investor and entrepreneur, is referring to a chart created 150 years ago by a farmer from Ohio that shows when to make the most money in markets.

如果美联储提示更长的时间保持利率高，许多交易者会担心市场崩溃。但是，在最新的X帖子中，比特币投资者和企业家Lark Dewis提到了150年前俄亥俄州农民创建的图表，该图表表明何时在市场上赚钱最多。

This chart has been remarkably accurate in the past, notably predicting the market crash in 2008 by advising people to exit in 2007. The chart divides the market into cycles and signals the “good times”, “hard times,” and years in which panics have occurred, with specific years marked for optimal profit-taking.

过去，该图表非常准确，特别是通过建议人们在2007年退出2008年的市场崩溃。该图表将市场划分为周期，并指示“好时代”，“艰难时期”，以及发生恐慌的年份，特定的年份标记为最佳利润。

According to the chart, 2026 will be a “year of good times,” likely indicating a great time to sell and take profits. The question is, will this market cycle extend to 2026 and will we see a new all-time high for Bitcoin next year? Only time will tell.

根据图表，2026年将是“美好时光的一年”，这可能表明出售和获利的好时机。问题是，这个市场周期会延长到2026年吗？明年我们会看到比特币的新历史高峰吗？只有时间会证明。

As on-chain data suggests that Bitcoin’s market might be changing, recently, Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, stated that the bull run could be finished, and we may observe prices either moving slowly or dropping for the next 6 to 12 months.

正如链上的数据表明，CryptoQuant的首席执行官Ki Young Ju表示，Bull-Quant of Bull un un可能会完成，我们可能会观察到价格在接下来的6到12个月内下降。

Analysts predict Bitcoin could hit new all-time highs by June 2025. However, a rising wedge pattern on the BTC chart suggests that it might happen even sooner. The wedge is nearing its breaking point, and if Bitcoin breaks out, we could see a huge price surge. On the other hand, a rejection could lead to more downside for the cryptocurrency.

分析师预测，比特币可能在2025年6月之前达到新的历史最高点。但是，BTC图表上的楔形模式上升表明它可能会更快地发生。楔子正在接近其突破点，如果比特币爆发，我们会看到巨大的价格上涨。另一方面，拒绝可能会导致加密货币的更多缺点。

Bitcoin has dropped 30% since hitting new highs in mid-January. While this may seem concerning, it’s actually a typical pullback in a bull market. In past bull runs, Bitcoin has fallen as much as 55% before going on to hit new all-time highs.

自从1月中旬达到新高点以来，比特币下降了30％。尽管这似乎令人担忧，但实际上它是牛市中典型的回调。在过去的公牛奔跑中，比特币下跌了55％，然后才能达到新的历史新高。

Besides, despite a bearish outlook, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan predicts Bitcoin could hit $1 million by 2029, citing its history of growth after dips. He believes a “dip then rip” trend may happen again.

此外，尽管看跌了前景，但Bitwise Cio Matt Hougan预测，比特币在2029年可能达到100万美元，理由是其下降后的增长史。他认为可能再次发生“浸入然后撕裂”趋势。

Bitcoin is currently hovering around $83,500 with little movement as the market awaits tomorrow’s FOMC meeting. With uncertainty in the U.S. economy, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%.

由于市场等待明天的FOMC会议，因此比特币目前徘徊在83,500美元左右，几乎没有动作。由于美国经济的不确定性，美联储有望保持利率保持不变的4.25％-4.5％。

The Fed is playing it safe in March, offering little guidance on what’s next, which has left the market uncertain. If rates stay the same, Bitcoin and crypto could see some momentum, especially since Polymarket is predicting a 100% chance of a rate cut in May.

美联储将于3月份安全地进行比赛，几乎没有关于下一步的指导，这使市场不确定。如果费率保持不变，比特币和加密货币可以看到一定的动力，尤其是因为Polymarket预测5月份降低利率的机会有100％。