比特币 (BTC) 今年可能突破 20 万美元，但首先需要做三件事

比特币虽然不再是一种投机资产，但仍然被许多投资者，尤其是大型金融机构的投资者认为有风险。

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has gained more than 150% over the last 12 months, but at its recent price of about $106,000, it's still a long way from $200,000. Given the coin's gains during the past year, however, it isn't outlandish to think about another bumper crop year.

比特币（CRYPTO：BTC）在过去 12 个月里上涨了 150% 以上，但以近期约 106,000 美元的价格计算，距离 200,000 美元还有很长的路要走。然而，考虑到硬币在过去一年的涨幅，想象另一个丰收年并不奇怪。

There's reason to believe such heights are not only possible, but also, in the long term, fairly probable. But three major things need to happen to increase the odds that Bitcoin hits the $200,000 mark. Let's take a look at each.

我们有理由相信这样的高度不仅是可能的，而且从长远来看，也是相当可能的。但要增加比特币触及 20 万美元大关的可能性，需要发生三件大事。让我们分别看一下。

1. Global liquidity needs to increase 

1.全球流动性需要增加

While no longer a speculative asset, many investors, especially those in major financial institutions, still consider Bitcoin to be risky.

虽然比特币不再是一种投机资产，但许多投资者，尤其是大型金融机构的投资者，仍然认为比特币具有风险。

That means that when it's expensive for financial institutions to borrow money, as determined by the interest rates set by central banks, less money tends to be allocated to Bitcoin, as safer assets take priority when capital is scarce. This is one reason Bitcoin's price is correlated with the movement of stocks. For the coin's price to continue to rise, interest rates must continue to fall, and global liquidity must continue to rise accordingly.

这意味着，当金融机构借钱成本高昂（由央行设定的利率决定）时，分配给比特币的资金往往会减少，因为当资本稀缺时，更安全的资产会被优先考虑。这是比特币价格与股票走势相关的原因之一。为了使代币的价格继续上涨，利率必须继续下降，全球流动性必须相应地继续上升。

After cutting its benchmark rate in 2024, the Federal Reserve is expected to slash interest rates at least once in 2027. In the EU, more sharp cuts are anticipated. The central bank in the U.K. is also slated to make a slew of cuts of its own. And in China, regulators are saying that similar decreases to the main interest rate are very much on the table for this year.

在 2024 年下调基准利率后，预计美联储将在 2027 年至少降息一次。在欧盟，预计降息幅度会更大。英国央行也计划自行进行一系列降息。在中国，监管机构表示，今年很可能会出现类似的主要利率下调。

All of these actions will create an environment in which investors have cheap capital to channel into risky assets like Bitcoin. Still, if something unexpected happens, like a spike in global inflation, liquidity could potentially make a turnaround and start declining.

所有这些行动都将创造一个环境，让投资者拥有廉价资本来投资比特币等风险资产。不过，如果发生意外情况，例如全球通胀飙升，流动性可能会出现好转并开始下降。

2. New investors need to buy

2.新投资者需要购买

The prices of cryptocurrencies increase when buyers compete with each other to buy as many coins as they want. When new buyers arrive on the scene with fresh capital, the price of the asset tends to rise.

当买家相互竞争购买所需数量的加密货币时，加密货币的价格就会上涨。当新买家带着新资本到达现场时，资产价格往往会上涨。

So for Bitcoin to continue to climb and eventually hit $200,000, more people need to buy. Roughly 106 million people hold Bitcoin worldwide, including about 22% of the adult population of the U.S. Billions of people haven't purchased any yet.

因此，为了让比特币继续攀升并最终达到 20 万美元，需要更多的人购买。全球大约有 1.06 亿人持有比特币，其中包括约 22% 的美国成年人口，还有数十亿人尚未购买比特币。

If history is any indication, some of them will take the plunge when prices are high, as awareness of the currency will rise accordingly. In other words, if Bitcoin's price continues to rise, making headlines in the process, more people will buy in.

如果历史有任何迹象的话，当价格高涨时，他们中的一些人会暴跌，因为人们对货币的认识会相应提高。换句话说，如果比特币的价格继续上涨，并在此过程中成为头条新闻，就会有更多的人购买。

In particular, a certain type of new investor is going to be an especially powerful catalyst for price increases, so let's examine that group next.

特别是，某种类型的新投资者将成为价格上涨的特别强大的催化剂，所以让我们接下来研究一下该群体。

3. Governments and companies also need to buy

3.政府和企业也需要购买

Governments, financial institutions, major corporations, and major nongovernmental organizations have a lot more money than most individuals. If those types of organizations continue to accumulate Bitcoin, the coin's path to much greater heights is all but assured.

政府、金融机构、大公司和主要非政府组织比大多数个人拥有更多的钱。如果这些类型的组织继续积累比特币，那么比特币将走向更高的高度几乎是板上钉钉的事情。

In mid-2024, governments held about 2.2% of the coin's total supply, but that proportion may increase, and recent developments suggest that this process is well underway.

到 2024 年中期，政府持有代币总供应量的约 2.2%，但这一比例可能会增加，最近的事态发展表明这一过程正在顺利进行。

The development of a Bitcoin reserve in the U.S. might be a serious focus of the new presidential administration. Russia, Poland, and Brazil are all considering such reserves. El Salvador, which adopted Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021, is already an example of successful cryptocurrency policy-making.

美国比特币储备的发展可能是新一届总统政府的重点关注对象。俄罗斯、波兰和巴西都在考虑此类储备。萨尔瓦多于 2021 年采用比特币作为法定货币，已经成为加密货币政策制定成功的例子。

Furthermore, large companies like Tesla also hold Bitcoin; the electric carmaker's holdings total upward of $1.2 billion. Others are likely to follow, especially if prices continue to rise.

此外，像特斯拉这样的大公司也持有比特币；这家电动汽车制造商的持股总额超过 12 亿美元。其他人可能会效仿，特别是如果价格继续上涨的话。

When they do, it will create buying pressure, which will drive the price up. If these people and institutions commit enough capital as a group, it could be enough to drive Bitcon's price over $200,000 within a few years or so.

当他们这样做时，就会产生购买压力，从而推高价格。如果这些人和机构作为一个整体投入足够的资金，可能足以在几年左右的时间内推动 Bitcon 的价格超过 20 万美元。