比特幣 (BTC) 今年可能突破 20 萬美元，但首先需要做三件事

比特幣雖然不再是一種投機資產，但仍被許多投資者，尤其是大型金融機構的投資者認為具有風險。

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has gained more than 150% over the last 12 months, but at its recent price of about $106,000, it's still a long way from $200,000. Given the coin's gains during the past year, however, it isn't outlandish to think about another bumper crop year.

比特幣（CRYPTO：BTC）在過去 12 個月裡上漲了 150% 以上，但以近期約 106,000 美元的價格計算，距離 20 萬美元還有很長的路要走。然而，考慮到硬幣在過去一年的漲幅，想像另一個豐收年並不奇怪。

There's reason to believe such heights are not only possible, but also, in the long term, fairly probable. But three major things need to happen to increase the odds that Bitcoin hits the $200,000 mark. Let's take a look at each.

我們有理由相信這樣的高度不僅是可能的，而且從長遠來看，也是相當可能的。但要增加比特幣觸及 20 萬美元大關的可能性，需要發生三件大事。讓我們分別看一下。

1. Global liquidity needs to increase 

1.全球流動性需要增加

While no longer a speculative asset, many investors, especially those in major financial institutions, still consider Bitcoin to be risky.

雖然比特幣不再是投機資產，但許多投資者，尤其是大型金融機構的投資者，仍然認為比特幣具有風險。

That means that when it's expensive for financial institutions to borrow money, as determined by the interest rates set by central banks, less money tends to be allocated to Bitcoin, as safer assets take priority when capital is scarce. This is one reason Bitcoin's price is correlated with the movement of stocks. For the coin's price to continue to rise, interest rates must continue to fall, and global liquidity must continue to rise accordingly.

這意味著，當金融機構借錢成本高昂（由央行設定的利率決定）時，分配給比特幣的資金往往會減少，因為當資本稀缺時，更安全的資產會被優先考慮。這也是比特幣價格與股票走勢相關的原因之一。為了使代幣的價格繼續上漲，利率必須繼續下降，全球流動性必須相應地繼續上升。

After cutting its benchmark rate in 2024, the Federal Reserve is expected to slash interest rates at least once in 2027. In the EU, more sharp cuts are anticipated. The central bank in the U.K. is also slated to make a slew of cuts of its own. And in China, regulators are saying that similar decreases to the main interest rate are very much on the table for this year.

在 2024 年下調基準利率後，預計聯準會將在 2027 年至少降息一次。英國央行也計劃自行進行一系列降息。在中國，監管機構表示，今年很可能會出現類似的主要利率下調。

All of these actions will create an environment in which investors have cheap capital to channel into risky assets like Bitcoin. Still, if something unexpected happens, like a spike in global inflation, liquidity could potentially make a turnaround and start declining.

所有這些行動都將創造一個環境，​​讓投資者擁有廉價資本來投資比特幣等風險資產。不過，如果發生意外情況，例如全球通膨飆升，流動性可能會出現改善並開始下降。

2. New investors need to buy

2.新投資者需要購買

The prices of cryptocurrencies increase when buyers compete with each other to buy as many coins as they want. When new buyers arrive on the scene with fresh capital, the price of the asset tends to rise.

當買家相互競爭購買所需數量的加密貨幣時，加密貨幣的價格就會上漲。當新買家帶著新資本到達現場時，資產價格往往會上漲。

So for Bitcoin to continue to climb and eventually hit $200,000, more people need to buy. Roughly 106 million people hold Bitcoin worldwide, including about 22% of the adult population of the U.S. Billions of people haven't purchased any yet.

因此，為了讓比特幣繼續攀升並最終達到 20 萬美元，需要更多的人購買。全球約有 1.06 億人持有比特幣，其中包括約 22% 的美國成年人口，還有數十億人尚未購買比特幣。

If history is any indication, some of them will take the plunge when prices are high, as awareness of the currency will rise accordingly. In other words, if Bitcoin's price continues to rise, making headlines in the process, more people will buy in.

如果歷史有任何跡象的話，當價格高漲時，他們中的一些人會暴跌，因為人們對貨幣的認識會相應提高。換句話說，如果比特幣的價格繼續上漲，並在此過程中成為頭條新聞，就會有更多的人購買。

In particular, a certain type of new investor is going to be an especially powerful catalyst for price increases, so let's examine that group next.

特別是，某種類型的新投資者將成為價格上漲的特別強大的催化劑，所以讓我們接下來研究一下該群體。

3. Governments and companies also need to buy

3.政府和企業也需要購買

Governments, financial institutions, major corporations, and major nongovernmental organizations have a lot more money than most individuals. If those types of organizations continue to accumulate Bitcoin, the coin's path to much greater heights is all but assured.

政府、金融機構、大公司和主要非政府組織比大多數個人擁有更多的錢。如果這些類型的組織繼續累積比特幣，那麼比特幣將走向更高的高度幾乎是板上釘釘的事情。

In mid-2024, governments held about 2.2% of the coin's total supply, but that proportion may increase, and recent developments suggest that this process is well underway.

到 2024 年中期，政府持有代幣總供應量的約 2.2%，但這一比例可能會增加，最近的事態發展表明這一過程正在順利進行。

The development of a Bitcoin reserve in the U.S. might be a serious focus of the new presidential administration. Russia, Poland, and Brazil are all considering such reserves. El Salvador, which adopted Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021, is already an example of successful cryptocurrency policy-making.

美國比特幣儲備的發展可能是新總統政府的重點關注對象。俄羅斯、波蘭和巴西都在考慮此類儲備。薩爾瓦多於 2021 年採用比特幣作為法定貨幣，已成為加密貨幣政策制定成功的例子。

Furthermore, large companies like Tesla also hold Bitcoin; the electric carmaker's holdings total upward of $1.2 billion. Others are likely to follow, especially if prices continue to rise.

此外，像特斯拉這樣的大公司也持有比特幣；這家電動車製造商的持股總額超過 12 億美元。其他人可能會效仿，特別是如果價格繼續上漲的話。

When they do, it will create buying pressure, which will drive the price up. If these people and institutions commit enough capital as a group, it could be enough to drive Bitcon's price over $200,000 within a few years or so.

當他們這樣做時，就會產生購買壓力，從而推高價格。如果這些人和機構作為一個整體投入足夠的資金，可能足以在幾年左右的時間內推動 Bitcon 的價格超過 20 萬美元。