比特币（BTC）减半周期可能正在崩溃，这表明市场正在发展 - 詹姆斯·罗梅罗（James Romero）

多年来，加密货币投资者一直将四年周期视为一个神圣的路线图，围绕比特币的减半活动。

For years, crypto investors have been familiar with the four-year cycle, often used to describe Bitcoin's price movements. It's a tidy narrative that weaves together Bitcoin's halving events with the ebullience and misery of the market.

多年来，加密投资者一直熟悉四年周期，通常用来描述比特币的价格变动。这是一个整洁的叙述，将比特币的减半事件与市场的痛苦和痛苦结合在一起。

The thinking goes: As Bitcoin's supply is cut in half roughly every four years, it sparks a bullish frenzy, which in turn culminates in a euphoric peak. But like all good things, it must end. A brutal crash ensues, paving the way for a slow and painful recovery.

想法是：随着比特币的供应大约每四年减少一半，它引发了看涨的疯狂，这反过来又在欣快的山峰中达到了高潮。但是像所有美好的事物一样，它必须结束。随后发生了残酷的崩溃，为缓慢而痛苦的康复铺平了道路。

But what if that model is starting to break down?

但是，如果该模型开始崩溃怎么办？

In a new interview with Cointelegraph’s YouTube channel, on-chain analyst James Check, known for his work at Bitcoin Visuals, suggests that the usual frameworks for analyzing the crypto market might not be as relevant today.

在对Cointelegraph的YouTube频道的新采访中，以比特币视觉效果的工作而闻名的链分析师James Check表明，分析加密市场的通常框架可能并不那么重要。

With institutions now playing a larger role in crypto, and the macro environment exerting an increasing influence, Check says that thinking in terms of “bull” and “bear” markets might no longer be the most helpful approach.

由于机构在加密货币中起着更大的作用，并且宏观环境的影响不断增长，因此Check说，“牛”和“熊”市场的思考可能不再是最有用的方法。

Instead, he prefers to consider the various factors that could push the Bitcoin price up or down.

相反，他更喜欢考虑可能将比特币价格推高或下降的各种因素。

“The world doesn’t operate on four-year cycles,” Check remarks. “You can imagine a headline tomorrow where suddenly all these tariffs get pulled back, and institutions decide to increase their crypto exposure as a result. From there, we could see the markets really start to move.”

“世界没有在四年的周期中运作，”检查说道。 “您可以想象明天的标题，突然，所有这些关税都被撤回了，机构决定增加其加密货币的曝光。从那里开始，我们可以看到市场真的开始移动。”

He continues:

他继续：

“But I can just as easily construct a case where the next headline could be something like Russia decides to cut off gas supplies to Europe. That would likely send all risk assets, including Bitcoin, into a pretty nasty decline.”

“但是，我可以很容易地构建一个案例，即下一个标题可能是俄罗斯决定切断欧洲的天然气供应。这很可能会使包括比特币在内的所有风险资产都陷入相当令人讨厌的下降。”

According to Check, the $70,000–$75,000 range is a critical level for the Bitcoin market to hold. Below that range, Check says we could see another leg down to retest the $30,000-$35,000 range. But above it, he sees the potential for a move to new all-time highs.

根据Check，$ 70,000- $ 75,000的范围对于比特币市场来说是关键的水平。 Check说，在该范围之下，我们可以看到另一只腿以重新测试$ 30,000- $ 35,000的范围。但是在此之上，他认为有可能转移到新的历史高点。

“I think we’re still in a broader bull market,” Check adds. “But ultimately, I prefer to think in terms of different scenarios rather than predictions. I like to consider the various factors that could push the Bitcoin price up or down, and then leave it up to the viewers to decide what they think is more likely to happen.”

“我认为我们仍然处于更广泛的牛市，” Check补充说。 “但是最终，我更喜欢从不同的情况而不是预测来思考。我想考虑可以将比特币价格推高或下降的各种因素，然后让观众决定他们认为更有可能发生的事情。”

Those interested in learning more about Check’s thoughts on the Bitcoin market can watch the full interview on our YouTube channel. And don't forget to subscribe for more.

那些有兴趣了解有关检查比特币市场的想法的人可以在我们的YouTube频道上观看完整的采访。而且不要忘记订阅更多。