Bitcoin (BTC) Halving Cycles May Be Breaking Down, Suggesting the Market Is Evolving - By James Romero

For years, crypto investors have looked to the four-year cycle, anchored around Bitcoin's halving events, as a kind of sacred roadmap.

For years, crypto investors have been familiar with the four-year cycle, often used to describe Bitcoin's price movements. It's a tidy narrative that weaves together Bitcoin's halving events with the ebullience and misery of the market.

The thinking goes: As Bitcoin's supply is cut in half roughly every four years, it sparks a bullish frenzy, which in turn culminates in a euphoric peak. But like all good things, it must end. A brutal crash ensues, paving the way for a slow and painful recovery.

But what if that model is starting to break down?

In a new interview with Cointelegraph’s YouTube channel, on-chain analyst James Check, known for his work at Bitcoin Visuals, suggests that the usual frameworks for analyzing the crypto market might not be as relevant today.

With institutions now playing a larger role in crypto, and the macro environment exerting an increasing influence, Check says that thinking in terms of “bull” and “bear” markets might no longer be the most helpful approach.

Instead, he prefers to consider the various factors that could push the Bitcoin price up or down.

“The world doesn’t operate on four-year cycles,” Check remarks. “You can imagine a headline tomorrow where suddenly all these tariffs get pulled back, and institutions decide to increase their crypto exposure as a result. From there, we could see the markets really start to move.”

He continues:

“But I can just as easily construct a case where the next headline could be something like Russia decides to cut off gas supplies to Europe. That would likely send all risk assets, including Bitcoin, into a pretty nasty decline.”

According to Check, the $70,000–$75,000 range is a critical level for the Bitcoin market to hold. Below that range, Check says we could see another leg down to retest the $30,000-$35,000 range. But above it, he sees the potential for a move to new all-time highs.

“I think we’re still in a broader bull market,” Check adds. “But ultimately, I prefer to think in terms of different scenarios rather than predictions. I like to consider the various factors that could push the Bitcoin price up or down, and then leave it up to the viewers to decide what they think is more likely to happen.”

Those interested in learning more about Check’s thoughts on the Bitcoin market can watch the full interview on our YouTube channel. And don't forget to subscribe for more.