比特幣（BTC）減半週期可能正在崩潰，這表明市場正在發展 - 詹姆斯·羅梅羅（James Romero）

多年來，加密貨幣投資者一直將四年周期視為一個神聖的路線圖，圍繞比特幣的減半活動。

For years, crypto investors have been familiar with the four-year cycle, often used to describe Bitcoin's price movements. It's a tidy narrative that weaves together Bitcoin's halving events with the ebullience and misery of the market.

多年來，加密投資者一直熟悉四年周期，通常用來描述比特幣的價格變動。這是一個整潔的敘述，將比特幣的減半事件與市場的痛苦和痛苦結合在一起。

The thinking goes: As Bitcoin's supply is cut in half roughly every four years, it sparks a bullish frenzy, which in turn culminates in a euphoric peak. But like all good things, it must end. A brutal crash ensues, paving the way for a slow and painful recovery.

想法是：隨著比特幣的供應大約每四年減少一半，它引發了看漲的瘋狂，這反過來又在欣快的山峰中達到了高潮。但是像所有美好的事物一樣，它必須結束。隨後發生了殘酷的崩潰，為緩慢而痛苦的康復鋪平了道路。

But what if that model is starting to break down?

但是，如果該模型開始崩潰怎麼辦？

In a new interview with Cointelegraph’s YouTube channel, on-chain analyst James Check, known for his work at Bitcoin Visuals, suggests that the usual frameworks for analyzing the crypto market might not be as relevant today.

在對Cointelegraph的YouTube頻道的新採訪中，以比特幣視覺效果的工作而聞名的鏈分析師James Check表明，分析加密市場的通常框架可能並不那麼重要。

With institutions now playing a larger role in crypto, and the macro environment exerting an increasing influence, Check says that thinking in terms of “bull” and “bear” markets might no longer be the most helpful approach.

由於機構在加密貨幣中起著更大的作用，並且宏觀環境的影響不斷增長，因此Check說，“牛”和“熊”市場的思考可能不再是最有用的方法。

Instead, he prefers to consider the various factors that could push the Bitcoin price up or down.

相反，他更喜歡考慮可能將比特幣價格推高或下降的各種因素。

“The world doesn’t operate on four-year cycles,” Check remarks. “You can imagine a headline tomorrow where suddenly all these tariffs get pulled back, and institutions decide to increase their crypto exposure as a result. From there, we could see the markets really start to move.”

“世界沒有在四年的周期中運作，”檢查說道。 “您可以想像明天的標題，突然，所有這些關稅都被撤回了，機構決定增加其加密貨幣的曝光。從那裡開始，我們可以看到市場真的開始移動。”

He continues:

他繼續：

“But I can just as easily construct a case where the next headline could be something like Russia decides to cut off gas supplies to Europe. That would likely send all risk assets, including Bitcoin, into a pretty nasty decline.”

“但是，我可以很容易地構建一個案例，即下一個標題可能是俄羅斯決定切斷歐洲的天然氣供應。這很可能會使包括比特幣在內的所有風險資產都陷入相當令人討厭的下降。”

According to Check, the $70,000–$75,000 range is a critical level for the Bitcoin market to hold. Below that range, Check says we could see another leg down to retest the $30,000-$35,000 range. But above it, he sees the potential for a move to new all-time highs.

根據Check，$ 70,000- $ 75,000的範圍對於比特幣市場來說是關鍵的水平。 Check說，在該範圍之下，我們可以看到另一隻腿以重新測試$ 30,000- $ 35,000的範圍。但是在此之上，他認為有可能轉移到新的歷史高點。

“I think we’re still in a broader bull market,” Check adds. “But ultimately, I prefer to think in terms of different scenarios rather than predictions. I like to consider the various factors that could push the Bitcoin price up or down, and then leave it up to the viewers to decide what they think is more likely to happen.”

“我認為我們仍然處於更廣泛的牛市，” Check補充說。 “但是最終，我更喜歡從不同的情況而不是預測來思考。我想考慮可以將比特幣價格推高或下降的各種因素，然後讓觀眾決定他們認為更有可能發生的事情。”

Those interested in learning more about Check’s thoughts on the Bitcoin market can watch the full interview on our YouTube channel. And don't forget to subscribe for more.

那些有興趣了解有關檢查比特幣市場的想法的人可以在我們的YouTube頻道上觀看完整的採訪。而且不要忘記訂閱更多。