比特币（BTC）可能很快就会经历大幅价格波动，原因如下

比特币可能很快就会在短期内经历大幅价格波动，因为抛售压力正在减弱，市场正在迅速接近平衡状态。

Bitcoin (BTC) may soon experience significant price swings in the short-term, as sell pressure diminishes and the market quickly approaches a state of equilibrium, according to new in-depth analysis from on-chain data analytics platform Glassnode.

根据链上数据分析平台 Glassnode 的最新深入分析，随着抛售压力减弱且市场迅速接近平衡状态，比特币（BTC）可能很快就会在短期内经历大幅价格波动。

Earlier this week, Glassnode published an analysis on the state of Bitcoin and what we can expect price-wise in the short term. Called “Seeking Liquidity,” the article discusses three key points that should result in a strong move to either side: positive capital flows, diminishing sell-side pressure, and the tightening up of “several measures of volatility.”

本周早些时候，Glassnode 发布了一份关于比特币状况以及短期内价格预期的分析。这篇题为“寻求流动性”的文章讨论了三个关键点，这三个关键点应该会导致任何一方的强劲走势：积极的资本流动、卖方压力的减弱以及“几项波动性指标”的收紧。

“As the price hit the $100k level, net capital inflows into Bitcoin surged, signifying investors were locking in substantial profits,” Glassnode explains. “These capital inflows have since started to decline in magnitude as the market consolidates and acclimatises to the new price range.”

Glassnode 解释说：“随着价格达到 10 万美元的水平，流入比特币的净资本激增，这意味着投资者锁定了可观的利润。” “随着市场整合并适应新的价格范围，这些资本流入的规模已开始下降。”

Currently, the balance of realized profit and loss volumes is nearly neutral, reflecting a reset in supply and demand dynamics.

目前，已实现盈亏量的平衡几乎是中性的，反映出供需动态的重置。

“Profit taking volumes reached a peak of +$4.5B in December 2024, and have now declined to a value of +$316.7M (-93%),” the researchers continue, arguing why we soon might see large green candles.

研究人员继续说道：“获利了结量在 2024 年 12 月达到 +$4.5B 的峰值，目前已下降至 +$316.7M (-93%)。”他们解释了为什么我们很快可能会看到大的绿色蜡烛。

At the same time, there’s been a “noteworthy decline” in overall sell-side pressure. Using metrics like Coinday Destruction, as well as exchange inflow volumes, Glassnode concluded that the majority of investors looking to lock in profits have already done so.

与此同时，整体卖方压力“显着下降”。 Glassnode 使用 Coinday Destruction 等指标以及交易所流入量得出结论，大多数希望锁定利润的投资者已经这样做了。

“Generally speaking, this indicates that the market may need to go ‘somewhere else’ in order to entice and unlock the next wave of supply.” In other words, there will be fewer bitcoin for sale and fewer investors looking to buy. Therefore, either the remaining investors will drive the price upwards or the decline in demand pushes the price down.

“一般来说，这表明市场可能需要走向‘其他地方’，以吸引和释放下一波供应。”换句话说，出售的比特币将会减少，想要购买的投资者也会减少。因此，要么剩下的投资者会推动价格上涨，要么需求下降会推动价格下跌。

Finally, the price range seems to be narrowing down, which is also a major signal of volatility. Looking at the prices for the last 60 days, Glassnode determined that the lows are getting higher, while the highs are getting lower, compressing the price in an ever-tightening coil.

最后，价格区间似乎正在收窄，这也是波动的一大信号。通过查看过去 60 天的价格，Glassnode 发现低点越来越高，而高点越来越低，从而将价格压缩得越来越紧。

“All of these instances have occurred prior to a significant burst of volatility, with the majority being in early bull markets, or prior to late stage capitulations in bear cycles.”

“所有这些情况都发生在大幅波动之前，其中大多数发生在牛市早期，或熊市周期后期投降之前。”

While it doesn’t explicitly say so, Glassnode does hint at a potential move to the upside. After all, we don’t seem to be approaching late stage bear cycle capitulation right now.

虽然没有明确表示，但 Glassnode 确实暗示了潜在的上涨趋势。毕竟，我们现在似乎还没有接近熊市周期的最后阶段投降。

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